scholarly journals Estimation of parameters in a distributed precipitation-runoff model for Norway

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Beldring ◽  
K. Engeland ◽  
L. A. Roald ◽  
N. R. Sælthun ◽  
A. Voksø
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Estimation Of Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
Scale Properties

Abstract. A distributed version of the HBV-model using 1 km2 grid cells and daily time step was used to simulate runoff from the entire land surface of Norway for the period 1961-1990. The model was sensitive to changes in small scale properties of the land surface and the climatic input data, through explicit representation of differences between model elements, and by implicit consideration of sub-grid variations in moisture status. A geographically transferable set of model parameters was determined by a multi-criteria calibration strategy, which simultaneously minimised the residuals between model simulated and observed runoff from 141 Norwegian catchments located in areas with different runoff regimes and landscape characteristics. Model discretisation units with identical landscape classification were assigned similar parameter values. Model performance was evaluated by simulating discharge from 43 independent catchments. Finally, a river routing procedure using a kinematic wave approximation to open channel flow was introduced in the model, and discharges from three additional catchments were calculated and compared with observations. The model was used to produce a map of average annual runoff for Norway for the period 1961-1990. Keywords: distributed model, multi-criteria calibration, global parameters, ungauged catchments.

scholarly journals A Model-Based Tool for Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change Scenarios on Flood Risk in Small-Scale River Systems—Part 1: Pre-Processing of Scenario Based Flood Characteristics for the Current State of Land Use

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Frauke Kachholz ◽  
Jens Tränckner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

Land use changes influence the water balance and often increase surface runoff. The resulting impacts on river flow, water level, and flood should be identified beforehand in the phase of spatial planning. In two consecutive papers, we develop a model-based decision support system for quantifying the hydrological and stream hydraulic impacts of land use changes. Part 1 presents the semi-automatic set-up of physically based hydrological and hydraulic models on the basis of geodata analysis for the current state. Appropriate hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments are derived by a transfer from a calibrated model. In the regarded lowland river basins, parameters of surface and groundwater inflow turned out to be particularly important. While the calibration delivers very good to good model results for flow (Evol =2.4%, R = 0.84, NSE = 0.84), the model performance is good to satisfactory (Evol = −9.6%, R = 0.88, NSE = 0.59) in a different river system parametrized with the transfer procedure. After transferring the concept to a larger area with various small rivers, the current state is analyzed by running simulations based on statistical rainfall scenarios. Results include watercourse section-specific capacities and excess volumes in case of flooding. The developed approach can relatively quickly generate physically reliable and spatially high-resolution results. Part 2 builds on the data generated in part 1 and presents the subsequent approach to assess hydrologic/hydrodynamic impacts of potential land use changes.

scholarly journals Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 893-904 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Bulygina ◽  
N. McIntyre ◽  
H. Wheater
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Space ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Flow Index ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Simulated Event ◽  
Base Flow Index

Abstract. Data scarcity and model over-parameterisation, leading to model equifinality and large prediction uncertainty, are common barriers to effective hydrological modelling. The problem can be alleviated by constraining the prior parameter space using parameter regionalisation. A common basis for regionalisation in the UK is the HOST database which provides estimates of hydrological indices for different soil classifications. In our study, Base Flow Index is estimated from the HOST database and the power of this index for constraining the parameter space is explored. The method is applied to a highly discretised distributed model of a 12.5 km2 upland catchment in Wales. To assess probabilistic predictions against flow observations, a probabilistic version of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is derived. For six flow gauges with reliable data, this efficiency ranged between 0.70 and 0.81, and inspection of the results shows that the model explains the data well. Knowledge of how Base Flow Index and interception losses may change under future land use management interventions was then used to further condition the model. Two interventions are considered: afforestation of grazed areas, and soil degradation associated with increased grazing intensity. Afforestation leads to median reduction in modelled runoff volume of 24% over the simulated 3 month period; and a median peak flow reduction ranging from 12 to 15% over the six gauges for the largest simulated event. Uncertainty in all results is low compared to prior uncertainty and it is concluded that using Base Flow Index estimated from HOST is a simple and potentially powerful method of conditioning the parameter space under current and future land management.

scholarly journals Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Ying Chen ◽  
Barry Gardiner ◽  
Ferenc Pasztor ◽  
Kristina Blennow ◽  
James Ryder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Canopy Structure ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Observed Damage

Abstract. Earth System Models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions between humans, ecosystem productivity and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The resulting enhanced model was completed by an empirical function to convert the difference between actual and critical wind speeds into forest damage. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parametrized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in Southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010, and South-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3 which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3 which is between 10 % and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance both at regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.

scholarly journals Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1907-1938 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Bulygina ◽  
N. McIntyre ◽  
H. Wheater
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Space ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Flow Index ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Simulated Event ◽  
Base Flow Index

Abstract. Data scarcity and model over-parameterisation, leading to model equifinality and large prediction uncertainty, are common barriers to effective hydrological modelling. The problem can be alleviated by constraining the prior parameter space using parameter regionalization. A common basis for regionalization in the UK is the HOST database which provides estimates of hydrological indices for different soil classifications. In our study, Base Flow Index is estimated from the HOST database and the power of this index for constraining the parameter space is explored. The method is applied to a highly discretized distributed model of a 12.5 km2 upland catchment in Wales. To assess probabilistic predictions against flow observations, a probabilistic version of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is derived. For six flow gauges with reliable data, this efficiency ranged between 0.70 and 0.81, and inspection of the results shows that the model explains the data well. Knowledge of how Base Flow Index and interception losses may change under future land use management interventions was then used to further condition the model. Two interventions are considered: afforestation of grazed areas, and soil degradation associated with increased grazing intensity. Afforestation leads to median reduction in modelled runoff volume of 24% over the simulated 3 month period; and a median peak flow reduction ranging from 12–15% over the six gauges for the largest simulated event. Uncertainty in all results is suprisingly low and it is concluded that using Base Flow Index estimated from HOST is a simple and potentially powerful method of conditioning the parameter space under current and future land management.

scholarly journals The UP modelling system for large scale hydrology: simulation of the Arkansas-Red River basin

1999 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. G. Kilsby ◽  
J. Ewen ◽  
W. T. Sloan ◽  
A. Burton ◽  
C. S. Fallows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Physical Basis ◽  
Red River ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Red River Basin ◽  
Modelling System

Abstract. The UP (Upscaled Physically-based) hydrological modelling system to the Arkansas-Red River basin (USA) is designed for macro-scale simulations of land surface processes, and aims for a physical basis and, avoids the use of discharge records in the direct calibration of parameters. This is achieved in a two stage process: in the first stage parametrizations are derived from detailed modelling of selected representative small and then used in a second stage in which a simple distributed model is used to simulate the dynamic behaviour of the whole basin. The first stage of the process is described in a companion paper (Ewen et al., this issue), and the second stage of this process is described here. The model operated at an hourly time-step on 17-km grid squares for a two year simulation period, and represents all the important hydrological processes including regional aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge, infiltration- and saturation-excess runoff, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, overland and channel flow. Outputs from the model are discussed, and include river discharge at gauging stations and space-time fields of evaporation and soil moisture. Whilst the model efficiency assessed by comparison of simulated and observed discharge records is not as good as could be achieved with a model calibrated against discharge, there are considerable advantages in retaining a physical basis in applications to ungauged river basins and assessments of impacts of land use or climate change.

scholarly journals Exploring hydrologically similar catchments in terms of the physical characteristics of upstream regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 1467-1483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Jin ◽  
Jintao Liu ◽  
Lu Lin ◽  
Aihua Wang ◽  
Xi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Physical Characteristics ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Response Factors ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
Huai River

Abstract Catchment classification strategies based on easily available physical characteristics are important for extrapolating hydrologic model parameters and improving hydrologic predictions in ungauged catchments. In this study, we conduct an experiment of catchment classification and explore the feasibility of characterizing hydrologically similar catchments using certain physical characteristics in upstream regions of the Huai River Basin. The similarity metrics of hydrologic response factors (high flow, low flow and average annual runoff) and physical factors (topography, shape, soil and vegetation) are fed into the K-means algorithm for catchment classification. All the catchments are classified into two classes regardless of the types of metrics used. By comparing the overlap coefficient (η) and Rand index (RI) between any two classification results, we found that the topography classification displays the highest concordance with the high flow classification (η = 79.2% and RI = 0.66) among all metrics. Including more metrics would not produce consistently better classification results. The optimal combination of metrics, with η = 87.5%, is the high flow metrics (Q10%, SFH and MAX90) with the topography metrics (AS and HI). The results indicate that the physical metrics adopted for hydrologic classification should be determined carefully in terms of specific hydrologic characteristics.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of land cover changes on hydrological extremes in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaini Naha ◽  
Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez ◽  
Rafael Rosolem
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Mahanadi River ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Several research studies have addressed the effects of future climate changes on the hydrological regime of Mahanadi river basin located in eastern part of India. However, studies investigating the effects of future land cover changes on hydrology are limited owing to the lack of availability of projected land cover scenarios. Our study investigates how the hydrology of Mahanadi river basin would respond to the current and future land cover scenarios under a large-scale hydrological modelling framework. Both historical and future land cover scenarios from the recently released, Land use Harmonisation (LUH2) project for CMIP6, indicates cropland and forest are the major land cover types in the basin with a noticeable increase in the cropland (23.3 %) at the expense of forest (22.65 %) by the end of year 2100 compared to the baseline year, 2005. A physically semi-distributed model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity has been set up and implemented over the Mahanadi river basin system for the time period 1990–2010. The uncertain model parameters were subjected to Sensitivity Analysis and calibrated within a Monte Carlo framework. The best set of calibrated models obtained is used in conjunction with the harmonized set of present and future land use scenarios from LUH2 at 25 km by 25 km resolution to generate an ensemble of model simulations that captures a range of plausible impacts of land cover changes on discharge and other hydrological components of the basin. Overall, model simulation results indicate an increase in the extreme flows (i.e., 95th percentile or higher) in the range of 0.12 to 21 % at multiple subcatchments within the basin. This increase can be attributed to the direct conversion of forested areas to agriculture (on the order of 30,000 km2) that has reduced the Leaf Area Index and subsequently reduces the Evapotranspiration (ET). These changes ultimately affect other water balance components at the land surface, resulting in an increase in surface runoff and baseflow, respectively.

scholarly journals Multi-objective regionalisation for lake level simulation, the case of Lake Tana in the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7341-7381
Author(s):  
T. H. M. Rientjes ◽  
B. U. J. Perera ◽  
A. T. Haile ◽  
P. Reggiani
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Relative Volume ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lake Levels ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Multi Objective

Abstract. The aim in this study is to simulate lake levels of Lake Tana by solving the water balance at daily time step. Since 42% of the basin is ungauged regionalisation procedures are applied. We examine the predictive capability of a regionalisation approach that combines multi-objective calibration of a simple conceptual model and multi regression analyses to establish relations between model parameters and catchment characteristics. Recently few studies are presented on lake level simulation of Lake Tana. In these studies the water balance of the lake is closed by estimation of runoff contributions from ungauged catchments. Studies partly relied on simple ad-hoc procedures of area comparison to estimate runoff from ungauged catchments. In this study a regional model is developed that relies on principles of similarity of catchments. For runoff modelling the HVB-96 model is selected while multi-objective model calibration is by a Monte Carlo procedure. Assessment of the lake water balance was established by comparing measured to estimated lake levels. Results of daily lake level simulation show a water balance closure term of 85 mm and a relative volume error of 2.17%. Results show runoff from ungauged catchments of 527 mm per year for the simulation period 1994 to 2003 that is approximately 30% of Lake Tana stream flow inflow. Compared to previous works this closure term is smallest.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Uncertainties in Soil and Vegetation Parameterizations for Regional Climate Simulations in Europe

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1535-1548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus Breil ◽  
Gerd Schädler
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Subgrid Scale ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Atmosphere Interaction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The deterministic description of the subgrid-scale land–atmosphere interaction in regional climate model (RCM) simulations is changed by using stochastic soil and vegetation parameterizations. For this, the land–atmosphere interaction parameterized in a land surface model (LSM) is perturbed stochastically by adding a random value to the input parameters using a random number generator. In this way, a stochastic ensemble is created that represents the impact of the uncertainties in these subgrid-scale processes on the resolved scale circulation. In a first step, stochastic stand-alone simulations with the VEG3D LSM are performed to identify sensitive model parameters. Afterward, VEG3D is coupled to the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling–Climate Limited-Area Modeling (COSMO-CLM) RCM and stochastically perturbed simulations driven by ERA-Interim (2001–10) are performed for the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment–European Domain (EURO-CORDEX) at a horizontal resolution of 0.22°. The simulation results reveal that the impact of stochastically varied soil and vegetation parameterizations on the simulated climate conditions differs regionally. In central Europe the impact on the mean temperature and precipitation characteristics is very weak. In southern Europe and North Africa, however, the resolved scale circulation is very sensitive to the local soil water conditions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the use of stochastic soil and vegetation parameterizations considerably improves the variability of monthly rainfall sums all over Europe by improving the representation of the land–atmosphere interaction in the stochastic ensemble on a daily basis. In particular, inland rainfall during summer is simulated much better.

scholarly journals Regionalisation for lake level simulation – the case of Lake Tana in the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1167-1183 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. H. M. Rientjes ◽  
B. U. J. Perera ◽  
A. T. Haile ◽  
P. Reggiani ◽  
L. P. Muthuwatta
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Objective Model

Abstract. In this study lake levels of Lake Tana are simulated at daily time step by solving the water balance for all inflow and outflow processes. Since nearly 62% of the Lake Tana basin area is ungauged a regionalisation procedure is applied to estimate lake inflows from ungauged catchments. The procedure combines automated multi-objective calibration of a simple conceptual model and multiple regression analyses to establish relations between model parameters and catchment characteristics. A relatively small number of studies are presented on Lake Tana's water balance. In most studies the water balance is solved at monthly time step and the water balance is simply closed by runoff contributions from ungauged catchments. Studies partly relied on simple ad-hoc procedures of area comparison to estimate runoff from ungauged catchments. In this study a regional model is developed that relies on principles of similarity of catchments characteristics. For runoff modelling the HBV-96 model is selected while multi-objective model calibration is by a Monte Carlo procedure. We aim to assess the closure term of Lake Tana's water balance, to assess model parameter uncertainty and to evaluate effectiveness of a multi-objective model calibration approach to make hydrological modeling results more plausible. For the gauged catchments, model performance is assessed by the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and Relative Volumetric Error and resulted in satisfactory to good performance for six, large catchments. The regional model is validated and indicated satisfactory to good performance in most cases. Results show that runoff from ungauged catchments is as large as 527 mm per year for the simulation period and amounts to approximately 30% of Lake Tana stream inflow. Results of daily lake level simulation over the simulation period 1994–2003 show a water balance closure term of 85 mm per year that accounts to 2.7% of the total lake inflow. Lake level simulations are assessed by Nash Sutcliffe (0.91) and Relative Volume Error (2.71%) performance measures.

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