A modeling approach to determine the impacts of land use and climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River

Abstract. With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

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Forecasting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-4-4265-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (6) ◽

pp. 4265-4295 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

J. Dams ◽

S. T. Woldeamlak ◽

O. Batelaan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Balance Model ◽

Groundwater Model ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Groundwater System ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Land-use change and climate change, along with groundwater pumping are frequently indicated to be the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. Up till now, research has mainly been focusing on the effect of the water quality of these human-induced changes on the groundwater system, often neglecting changes in quantity. The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes in the near future, from 2000 until 2020, on the groundwater quantity and the general hydrologic balance of a sub-catchment of the Kleine Nete, Belgium. This study tests a new methodology which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used for the land-use modelling. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a MODFLOW groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly decreases for all scenarios, the decreases are 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for respectively scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the total baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% respectively for scenario A1 and B2. Although these average values do not indicate significant changes for the groundwater system, spatial analysis of the changes shows the changes are concentrated in the neighbourhood of the major cities in the study areas. It is therefore important for spatial managers to take the groundwater system into account for reducing the negative impacts of land-use and climate change as much as possible.

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Assessment of Wetland Restoration and Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of the Heeia Coastal Wetland in Hawaii

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6020037 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 37 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Kariem A. Ghazal ◽

Olkeba Tolessa Leta ◽

Aly I. El-Kadi ◽

Henrietta Dulai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Coastal Wetland ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Daily Streamflow

Hydrological modeling is an important tool that can be used to assess water resources’ availability and sustainability that are necessary for food security and ecological health of coastal regions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on water balance components (WBCs) of the Heeia coastal wetland. We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to capture the unique characteristics of the Hawaiian Islands, including its volcanic soil’s nature and high initial infiltration rates. We used the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty of WBCs under different climate change scenarios. Results of the statistical analysis of daily streamflow simulations showed that the model performance was within the generally acceptable criteria. Under future climate scenarios, rainfall change was the determinant factor most negatively impacting WBCs. Recharge and baseflow components had the highest sensitivity to the combined effects of land use and climate changes, especially during dry season. The uncertainty analysis indicated that the streamflow is projected to slightly increase by the middle of 21st century, but expected to decline by 40% during the late 21st century of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5.

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Evaluation on Effects of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow and Water Quality in the La Buong River Basin, Southern Vietnam

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11247221 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (24) ◽

pp. 7221 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Van Nguyen ◽

Truong Thao Sam ◽

Pham Nhi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Basic Knowledge ◽

Nutrient Loads ◽

Southern Vietnam

The effects of climate and land-use changes have put intense pressures on water resources with regard to water quantity and quality in the La Buong River Basin, located in Southern Vietnam. Therefore, an estimate of such effects and their consequences on water resources in this area is needed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the segregated and aggregated effects of climate change and land-use change on streamflow and water quality components (sediment and nutrient loads) using the well-known Soils and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was carefully calibrated and validated against the observation data before it can be used as a simulation tool to study the impacts of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes. As a result of this study, it shows a reduction in the wet-season and annual streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads will be occurred in the study area due to climate change effects, while the streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads will be increased under the effects of the land-use change. Moreover, the streamflow and water quality components are more sensitive to land-use change than climate change. The results obtained from this study can provide a basic knowledge of the effects of climate and land-use changes on the streamflow and water quality to the local and national authorities for the future development of integrated water resources management in the La Buong River Basin.

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Effects of climate change and land use change on the water balance components of the Xingu river basin, southeastern Amazon

10.11606/t.91.2019.tde-21012019-144713 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Rodnei Rizzo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Xingu River

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Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-12-1369-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1369-1385 ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

J. Dams ◽

S. T. Woldeamlak ◽

O. Batelaan

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Steady State ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Groundwater System ◽

Groundwater Quantity ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium. New is that this study tests a methodology, which couples a land-use change model with a water balance and a steady-state groundwater model. Four future land-use scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are modelled with the CLUE-S model. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that the average recharge decreases with 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2, respectively, over the 20 covered years. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level in the basin, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% for scenario A1 and B2, respectively. Although these averages appear to indicate small changes in the groundwater system, spatial analysis shows that much larger changes are located near the major cities in the study area. Hence, spatial planning should take better account of effects of land-use change on the groundwater system and define mitigating actions for reducing the negative impacts of land-use change.

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The effect of land-use change on river watershed quality (case study: Cimahi Watershed, West Java, Indonesia)

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/933/1/012010 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 933 (1) ◽

pp. 012010

Author(s):

S A Nurhayati ◽

M Marselina ◽

A Sabar

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Quality Parameters ◽

Water Quality Parameters ◽

Watershed Area ◽

Watershed Land Use ◽

Main River

Abstract Increasing population growth is one of the impacts of the growth of a city or district in an area. This also happened in the Cimahi watershed area. As the population grows, so does the need for land which increases the land-use change in the Cimahi watershed. Land-use changes will affect the surrounding environment and one of them is the river, especially river water quality. As a watershed area, there is one main river that is the source of life as well as the Cimahi watershed, whose main river is the Cimahi River. The purpose of this study was calculated the relationship between land-use change in the Cimahi watershed and the water quality parameters of the Cimahi River. The correlation between the two was calculated using Pearson correlation. Water quality parameters can be seen based on BOD and DO values. BOD and DO values are the opposite because good water quality has high DO values and low BOD values. The correlation between land-use change and BOD was 0.328 is in the area of settlements area. In contrast, to DO values, an increase in settlements/industrial zones will further reduce DO values so that both have a negative correlation, which is indicated by a value of -0,535. The correlation between settlements with pH and temperature values is 0.664 and 0.812. While the correlation between settlements with TSS and TDS values are 0.333 and 0.529, respectively. In this study, it can be seen that there is a relationship between the decline in water quality and changes in land use.

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Potential Changes of Annual-Averaged Nutrient Export in the South Saskatchewan River Basin under Climate and Land-Use Change Scenarios

Water ◽

10.3390/w10101438 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 1438 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Luis Morales-Marín ◽

Howard Wheater ◽

Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Nutrient Export ◽

The South ◽

South Saskatchewan River

Climate and land-use changes modify the physical functioning of river basins and, in particular, influence the transport of nutrients from land to water. In large-scale basins, where a variety of climates, topographies, soil types and land uses co-exist to form a highly heterogeneous environment, a more complex nutrient dynamic is imposed by climate and land-use changes. This is the case of the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) that, along with the North Saskatchewan River, forms one of the largest river systems in western Canada. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) model is therefore implemented to assess water quality in the basin, in order to describe spatial and temporal patterns and identify those factors and processes that affect water quality. Forty-five climate and land-use change scenarios comprehended by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were incorporated into the model to explain how total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) export could vary across the basin in 30, 60 and 90 years from now. According to model results, annual averages of TN and TP export in the SSR are going to increase in the range 0.9–1.28 kg km − 2 year − 1 and 0.12–0.17 kg km − 2 year − 1 , respectively, by the end of the century, due to climate and land-use changes. Higher increases of TP compared to TN are expected since TP and TN are going to increase ∼36% and ∼21%, respectively, by the end of the century. This research will support management plans in order to mitigate nutrient export under future changes of climate and land use.

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GEO-CWB: GIS-Based Algorithms for Parametrising the Responses of Catchment Dynamic Water Balance Regarding Climate and Land Use Changes

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology7030039 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 39 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Salem S. Gharbia ◽

Laurence Gill ◽

Paul Johnston ◽

Francesco Pilla

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Critical Factor ◽

Balance Model ◽

Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Spatially Distributed ◽

Hydrological System

Parametrising the spatially distributed dynamic catchment water balance is a critical factor in studying the hydrological system responses to climate and land use changes. This study presents the development of a geographic information system (GIS)-based set of algorithms (geographical spatially distributed water balance model (GEO-CWB)), which is developed from integrating physical, statistical, and machine learning models. The GEO-CWB tool has been developed to simulate and predict future spatially distributed dynamic water balance using GIS environment at the catchment scale in response to the future changes in climate variables and land use through a user-friendly interface. The tool helps in bridging the gap in quantifying the high-resolution dynamic water balance components for the large catchments by reducing the computational costs. Also, this paper presents the application and validation of GEO-CWB on the Shannon catchment in Ireland as an example of a large and complicated hydrological system. It can be concluded that climate and land use changes have significant effects on the spatial and temporal patterns of the different water balance components of the catchment.

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Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2020.022 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 51 (5) ◽

pp. 976-993

Author(s):

Yuhui Yan ◽

Baolin Xue ◽

Yinglan A ◽

Wenchao Sun ◽

Hanwen Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Precipitation Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Ne China ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Hailar Basin ◽

The Impact

Abstract Quantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

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Impact of Arable Land to Grassland Conversion on the Vegetation-period Water Balance of a Small Agricultural Catchment (Němčický Stream)

Soil and Water Research ◽

10.17221/7/2010-swr ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 5 (No. 4) ◽

pp. 128-138 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

P. Kovář ◽

D. Vaššová

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Arable Land ◽

Vegetation Period ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Total Runoff ◽

Grassland Conversion ◽

Pronounced Reduction

This paper presents results of decadal (10-day) water balance simulations for the vegetation periods (April to October) of 2001 (normal year), 2002 (wet year) and 2003 (dry year) in the Němčický Stream experimental catchment (3.52 km<sup>2</sup>). The catchment is a typical agricultural area with a large extent of arable land. This paper shows that the model used (WBCM) is capable of reliably simulating decadal water balance components for the actual land use. The same model is then used to estimate water balance changes brought about when 10% of arable land has been transformed into permanent grassland. It is shown that this land use change results in a pronounced reduction of surface runoff and an increase in subsurface storage over the vegetation periods of all three years. The vegetation period groundwater runoff was only enhanced in the wet year, while the total runoff was reduced in all three years. 

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