scholarly journals FUTURE ESTIMATION OF CONVENIENCE LIVING FACILITIES WITHDRAWAL DUE TO POPULATION DECLINE ALL OVER JAPAN FROM 2010 TO 2040 - FOCUS ON SUPERMARKETS, CONVENIENCE STORES AND DRUGSTORES

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B2 ◽  
pp. 223-226
Author(s):  
Yuka Nishimoto ◽  
Yuki Akiyama ◽  
Ryosuke Shibasaki
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Market Area ◽  
Telephone Directory ◽  
Convenience Stores ◽  
Point Data ◽  
Fresh Foods ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Future Population

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. <br><br> In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. <br><br> In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

scholarly journals FUTURE ESTIMATION OF CONVENIENCE LIVING FACILITIES WITHDRAWAL DUE TO POPULATION DECLINE ALL OVER JAPAN FROM 2010 TO 2040 - FOCUS ON SUPERMARKETS, CONVENIENCE STORES AND DRUGSTORES

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B2 ◽  
pp. 223-226
Author(s):  
Yuka Nishimoto ◽  
Yuki Akiyama ◽  
Ryosuke Shibasaki
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Market Area ◽  
Telephone Directory ◽  
Convenience Stores ◽  
Point Data ◽  
Fresh Foods ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Future Population

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. <br><br> In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. <br><br> In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

scholarly journals The relative (un)certainty of subnational population decline

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Cameron
Keyword(s):  
Nobel Prize ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Nobel Prize Winner ◽  
Niels Bohr ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Population

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” This quote is attributed to Danish physicist and Nobel prize winner Niels Bohr, but the difficulty of making predictions does not stop us from making forecasts of economic, demographic, and other variables. Investors, businesses, policy makers and others use these forecasts to inform their decisions about investments and policy settings where understanding of the future trajectory and levels of costs and benefits are essential. One key example is forecasts of future population. The size and distribution (whether geographic, age, ethnic, or some other distribution) of the future population is a critical input into urban and other planning. Understanding the methods and limitations of forecasts is an important but often underappreciated task for planners and policymakers.

DEALING WITH CHINA'S FUTURE POPULATION DECLINE: A PROPOSAL FOR REPLACING LOW BIRTH RATES WITH SUSTAINABLE RATES

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 693-696 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHIXIONG CAO ◽  
XIUQING WANG
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Planning Policy ◽  
The Family ◽  
Future Population

SummaryDecreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

scholarly journals Responding to population policy - which women can provide the greatest demographic benefit in Serbia?

2014 ◽  
pp. 541-550
Author(s):  
Petar Vasic ◽  
Vera Gligorijevic ◽  
Mirjana Devedzic
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Strong Response ◽  
Socioeconomic Characteristics ◽  
Current Population ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Different Response ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Fertile Women

Population policy measures address all fertile women in Serbia, and the aim is to mobilize the largest number of women to give birth. Although strong response is desirable, not all women react, or at least not to the same extent, to the population policy measures which are financially based in Serbia. In this paper our intention was to identify which categories of fertile women could give greatest demographic benefit in the near future considering current population policy measures. We assumed that age and socioeconomic characteristics are the most relevant for the different response of women. Considering past structural changes of women population, and population projection results, we tried to define which categories of fertile women can give the greatest demographic benefit to the increase of birth level until 2041.

scholarly journals Predation impedes recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep

2021 ◽  
pp. 444-470
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Gammons ◽  
Jeffrey L. Davis ◽  
David W. German ◽  
Kristin Denryter ◽  
John D. Wehausen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Puma Concolor ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Bighorn Sheep ◽  
Ovis Canadensis ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Ovis Canadensis Sierrae

Translocation of animals into formerly occupied habitat is a key element of the recovery plan for Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), which are state (California) and federally listed as endangered. However, implementing Sierra bighorn translocations is a significant conservation challenge because of the small size of the extant population and the limited number of herds available to donate translocation stock. One such herd, the Mt. Langley herd, recently became unusable as a translocation source following a substantial population decline. At the time of listing in 1999, predation by mountain lions (Puma concolor; hereafter lion) was considered a primary threat to Sierra bighorn, and since then lion predation may have continued to limit the ability of source herds to provide translocation stock. We evaluated the relationship between lion predation and ewe survival rates within three source herds of the Southern Recovery Unit, compared lion abundance and ewe survival among years of varying predation levels, provided a range of estimated times for the Mt. Langley herd to recover to its former status as a translocation source, and determined if the rates lions have been removed to mitigate Sierra bighorn predation exceeded sustainable harvest guidelines. We found compelling evidence that lion predation has impeded the recovery of Sierra bighorn by reducing survival rates of adult ewes (and consequently, population growth) and by preying upon individuals that could have otherwise been translocated. Ewe survival was poor during years of extreme predation but even during years of typical predation, survival rates were below a level needed to ensure population growth, indicating that years with little or no lion predation may be necessary for the population to grow and meet recovery goals. Because the intensity of predation was related to lion abundance, monitoring lion populations could provide managers with advance warning of periods of extreme predation. We found that following a period of particularly extreme predation, the Mt. Langley herd decreased in abundance far below the threshold needed to be considered a source of translocation stock, resulting in the loss of approximately 25% of the recovery program’s capacity for translocations. It is unclear how many years it will take for this herd to recover, but management actions to reduce lion predation are likely needed for this herd to grow to a size that can afford to donate individuals to translocation efforts in the near future, even when optimistic growth rates are assumed. We found that lion removal may also be needed to prevent predation from leading to Sierra bighorn population decline. Lion removal rates that have been implemented thus far are well below what would be needed to reduce the abundance the eastern Sierra lion population itself. We recommend continued monitoring of Sierra bighorn and sympatric lions and note that lion removal may be required to facilitate bighorn recovery for the foreseeable future.

scholarly journals Replacement migration, or why everyone is going to have to live in Korea: a fable for our times from the United Nations

2002 ◽  
Vol 357 (1420) ◽  
pp. 583-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Coleman
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Care For The Elderly ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Mild Reduction ◽  
Workforce Productivity ◽  
Future Population

This paper considers international migration in the context of population ageing. In many Western countries, the search for appropriate responses to manage future population ageing and population decline has directed attention to international migration. It seems reasonable to believe that international migrants, mostly of young working age, can supply population deficits created by low birth rates, protect European society and economy from the economic costs of elderly dependency, and provide a workforce to care for the elderly. Particular prominence has been given to this option through the publicity attendant on a report from the UN Population Division in 2000 on ‘replacement migration’, which has been widely reported and widely misunderstood. Although immigration can prevent population decline, it is already well known that it can only prevent population ageing at unprecedented, unsustainable and increasing levels of inflow, which would generate rapid population growth and eventually displace the original population from its majority position. This paper reviews these arguments in the context of the causes and inevitability of population ageing, with examples mostly based on UK data. It discusses various options available in response to population ageing through workforce, productivity, pensions reform and other means. It concludes that there can be no ‘solution’ to population ageing, which is to a considerable degree unavoidable. However, if the demographic regime of the United Kingdom continues to be relatively benign, future population ageing can be managed with tolerable inconvenience without recourse to increased immigration for ‘demographic’ purposes. At present (2001), net immigration to the United Kingdom is already running at record levels and is now the main engine behind UK population and household growth. By itself, population stabilization, or even mild reduction, is probably to be welcomed in the United Kingdom, although the issue has attracted little attention since the 1970s.

scholarly journals Panthera tigris jacksoni Population Crash and Impending Extinction due to Environmental Perturbation and Human-Wildlife Conflict

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1032
Author(s):  
Dennis Choon Yung Ten ◽  
Rohana Jani ◽  
Noor Hashida Hashim ◽  
Salman Saaban ◽  
Abdul Kadir Abu Hashim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Panthera Tigris ◽  
Canine Distemper ◽  
Environmental Perturbation ◽  
Population Crash ◽  
Tiger Conservation ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Human Wildlife Conflict

The critically endangered Malayan tiger (Panthera tigris jacksoni), with an estimated population of less than 200 individuals left in isolated rainforest habitats in Malaysia, is in an intermediate population crash leading to extinction in the next decade. The population has decreased significantly by illegal poaching, environmental perturbation, roadkill, and being captured during human–wildlife conflicts. Forty-five or more individuals were extracted from the wild (four animals captured due to conflict, one death due to canine distemper, one roadkilled, and 39 poached) in the 12 years between 2008–2019. The Malayan tigers are the first wildlife species to test positive for COVID-19 and are subject to the Canine Distemper Virus. These anthropogenic disturbances (poaching and human–tiger conflict) and environmental perturbation (decreasing habitat coverage and quality) have long been identified as impending extinction factors. Roadkill and infectious diseases have emerged recently as new confounding factors threatening Malayan tiger extinction in the near future. Peninsular Malaysia has an existing Malayan tiger conservation management plan; however, to enhance the protection and conservation of Malayan tigers from potential extinction, the authority should reassess the existing legislation, regulation, and management plan and realign them to prevent further population decline, and to better enable preparedness and readiness for the ongoing pandemic and future threats.

scholarly journals Population Projection of Nepal: A Logistic Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Khagendra Adhikari ◽  
Hikmat Bahadur Raya
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
Future Population

Population growth is a dynamic process which depends upon many variables which result the population projection as a very complicated task. In this article, we try to project the population of Nepal for upcoming 100 years and also project the trend of population growth for next 300 years. In this projection, we use the Logistic Growth Model, a more realistic model of population projection. Here we use the every 10 years data of census and also calculate all the intermediate year’s data by using the exponential growth model. Thus, we use all together 41 years data in our calculation. By using the least square method to fit the Logistic Model in the past population and using the MATLAB, we calculate the logistic growth rate of population of Nepal is r = 3:6955%. The carrying capacity of Nepal is K = Pmax = 4; 38; 14; 550 and the inflection year at which the population is half of the maximum population ( K/2 = 2; 19; 07; 275) of Nepal as 1999 from when the population of Nepal will start to be more stable. The population growth rate will be remarkably reduced around the 2071 and the population of Nepal will start to remain more stable from around 2100. As the area of Nepal, its natural resources and possibilities of the dynamical connectivity between the rapid economically growing neighbors, the future population of Nepal seems to be manageable.

scholarly journals The viability of pronatalism as a response to population growth decline in the Canadian context

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharine Emma Blair
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Canadian Context ◽  
Growth Decline ◽  
Near Future

A decrease in fertility over the last thirty years has led to projections for population growth decline and possible population decline in the near future. Although immigration has traditionally been seen as a source of growth for Canada, current demographic trends suggest a more comprehensive approach may be needed. A pronatalist policy may help offset the long term effects of population decline if used in tandem with increased immigration and increased support for arriving immigrants. In order to be successful such a policy would need to address both the direct and indirect barriers to fertility as experienced by women and families while encouraging increased labour force participation by women.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document