scholarly journals Assessment of reliability of extreme wave height prediction models

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Samayam ◽  
Valentina Laface ◽  
Sannasiraj Sannasi Annamalaisamy ◽  
Felice Arena ◽  
Sundar Vallam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Indian Water ◽  
Wave Hindcast ◽  
Buoy Data

Abstract. Extreme waves influence coastal engineering activities and have an immense geophysical implication. Therefore, their study, observation and extreme wave prediction are decisive for planning of mitigation measures against natural coastal hazards, ship routing, design of coastal and offshore structures. In this study, the estimates of design wave heights associated with return period of 30 and 100 years are dealt with in detail. The design wave height is estimated based on four different models to obtain a general and reliable model. Different locations are considered to perform the analysis: four sites in Indian waters (two each in Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea), one in the Mediterranean Sea and two in North America (one each in North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Maine). For the Indian water domain, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim wave hindcast data covering a period of 36 years have been utilized for this purpose. For the locations in Mediterranean Sea and North America, both ERA-Interim wave hindcast and buoy data are considered. The reasons for the variation in return value estimates of the ERA-Interim data and the buoy data using different estimation models are assessed in detail.

scholarly journals Assessment of reliability of extreme wave height prediction models

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Samayam ◽  
Valentina Laface ◽  
Sannasiraj Sannasi Annamalaisamy ◽  
Felice Arena ◽  
Sundar Vallam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Indian Water ◽  
Buoy Data

Abstract. Extreme waves influence coastal engineering activities and have an immense geophysical implication. Therefore, their study, observation and extreme wave prediction are decisive for planning for mitigation measures against natural coastal hazards, ship routing, design of coastal and offshore structures. In this study, the estimates of design wave heights associated with return period of 30 and 100 years are dealt with in detail. The design wave height is estimated based on four different models to obtain a general and reliable model. Different locations are considered to perform the analysis: four sites in Indian waters, one in Mediterranean Sea and two in North America. For the Indian water domain European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis ERA-interim wave hind cast data covering a period of 36 years have been utilized for this purpose. For the locations in Mediterranean Sea and North America both ERA-interim wave hind cast and buoy data are considered. The reasons for the variation in return value estimates of the ERA-interim data and the buoy data using different estimation models are assessed in detail.

scholarly journals Wind Waves in the Mediterranean Sea: An ERA5 Reanalysis Wind-Based Climatology

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Barbariol ◽  
Silvio Davison ◽  
Francesco Marcello Falcieri ◽  
Rossella Ferretti ◽  
Antonio Ricchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Atmospheric Parameter ◽  
Wave Hindcast ◽  
Individual Wave ◽  
The Mediterranean

A climatology of the wind waves in the Mediterranean Sea is presented. The climate patterns, their spatio-temporal variability and change are based on a 40-year (1980–2019) wave hindcast, obtained by combining the ERA5 reanalysis wind forcing with the state-of-the-art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model and verified against satellite altimetry. Results are presented for the typical (50th percentile) and extreme (99th percentile) significant wave height and, for the first time at the regional Mediterranean Sea scale, for the typical and extreme expected maximum individual wave height of sea states. The climate variability of wind waves is evaluated at seasonal scale by proposing and adopting a definition of seasons for the Mediterranean Sea states that is based on the satellite altimetry wave observations of stormy (winter) and calm (summer) months. The results, initially presented for the four seasons and then for winter and summer only, show the regions of the basin where largest waves occur and those with the largest temporal variability. A possible relationship with the atmospheric parameter anomalies and with teleconnection patterns (through climate indices) that motivates such variability is investigated, with results suggesting that the Scandinavian index variability is the most correlated to the Mediterranean Sea wind-wave variability, especially for typical winter sea states. Finally, a trend analysis shows that the Mediterranean Sea typical and extreme significant and maximum individual wave heights are decreasing during summer and increasing during winter.

scholarly journals Present Wave Climate in the Bay of Biscay: Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends from 1958 to 2001

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 2020-2039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elodie Charles ◽  
Déborah Idier ◽  
Jérôme Thiébot ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Rodrigo Pedreros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Bay Of Biscay ◽  
Wave Direction ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Wave Fields ◽  
Wave Conditions

Abstract Climate change impacts on wave conditions can increase the risk of offshore and coastal hazards. The present paper investigates wave climate multidecadal trends and interannual variability in the Bay of Biscay during the past decades (1958–2001). Wave fields are computed with a wave modeling system based on the WAVEWATCH III code and forced by 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wind fields. It provides both an extended spatiotemporal domain and a refined spatial resolution over the Bay of Biscay. The validation of the wave model is based on 11 buoys, allowing for the use of computed wave fields in the analysis of mean and extreme wave height trends and variability. Wave height, period, and direction are examined for a large array of wave conditions (by seasons, high percentiles of wave heights, different periods). Several trends for recent periods are identified, notably an increase of summer significant wave height, a southerly shift of autumn extreme wave direction, and a northerly shift of spring extreme wave direction. Wave fields exhibit high interannual variability, with a normalized standard deviation of seasonal wave height greater than 15% in wintertime. The relationship with Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is investigated at regional scale, especially along the coast. It highlights a strong correlation between local wave conditions and the North Atlantic Oscillation and the east Atlantic pattern indices. This relationship is further investigated at the local scale with a new method based on bivariate diagrams, allowing the identification of the type of waves (swell, storm, intermediate waves) impacted. These results are discussed in terms of comparison with previous studies and coastal risk implications.

scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling of ERA5 Data on the North-Western Mediterranean Sea: From Atmosphere to High-Resolution Coastal Wave Climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 208
Author(s):  
Valentina Vannucchi ◽  
Stefano Taddei ◽  
Valerio Capecchi ◽  
Michele Bendoni ◽  
Carlo Brandini
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Wave Hindcast ◽  
The North ◽  
Western Mediterranean Sea

A 29-year wind/wave hindcast is produced over the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1990–2018. The dataset is obtained by downscaling the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalyses, which provide the initial and boundary conditions for a numerical chain based on limited-area weather and wave models: the BOLAM, MOLOCH and WaveWatch III (WW3) models. In the WW3 computational domain, an unstructured mesh is used. The variable resolutions reach up to 500 m along the coasts of the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian seas (Italy), the main objects of the study. The wind/wave hindcast is validated using observations from coastal weather stations and buoys. The wind validation provides velocity correlations between 0.45 and 0.76, while significant wave height correlations are much higher—between 0.89 and 0.96. The results are also compared to the original low-resolution ERA5 dataset, based on assimilated models. The comparison shows that the downscaling improves the hindcast reliability, particularly in the coastal regions, and especially with regard to wind and wave directions.

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (14-15) ◽  
pp. 1841-1863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Roulston ◽  
Jerome Ellepola ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Leonard A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

scholarly journals Wave Height Distributions and Rogue Waves in the Eastern Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 660
Author(s):  
Sagi Knobler ◽  
Daniel Bar ◽  
Rotem Cohen ◽  
Dan Liberzon
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Order Model ◽  
Deep Seawater ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
Buoy Data

There is a lack of scientific knowledge about the physical sea characteristics of the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The current work offers a comprehensive view of wave fields in southern Israel waters covering a period between January 2017 and June 2018. The analyzed data were collected by a meteorological buoy providing wind and waves parameters. As expected for this area, the strongest storm events occurred throughout October–April. In this paper, we analyze the buoy data following two main objectives—identifying the most appropriate statistical distribution model and examining wave data in search of rogue wave presence. The objectives were accomplished by comparing a number of models suitable for deep seawater waves. The Tayfun—Fedele 3rd order model showed the best agreement with the tail of the empirical wave heights distribution. Examination of different statistical thresholds for the identification of rogue waves resulted in the detection of 99 unique waves, all of relatively low height, except for one wave that reached 12.2 m in height which was detected during a powerful January 2018 storm. Characteristics of the detected rogue waves were examined, revealing the majority of them presenting crest to trough symmetry. This finding calls for a reevaluation of the crest amplitude being equal to or above 1.25 the significant wave height threshold which assumes rogue waves carry most of their energy in the crest.

scholarly journals Near-Global Atmospheric Responses to Observed Springtime Tibetan Plateau Snow Anomalies

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1691-1706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shizuo Liu ◽  
Qigang Wu ◽  
Steven R. Schroeder ◽  
Yonghong Yao ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
North America ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
The North ◽  
Snow Cover Extent ◽  
The North Pacific

AbstractPrevious studies show that there are substantial influences of winter–spring Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow anomalies on the Asian summer monsoon and that autumn–winter TP heavy snow can lead to persisting hemispheric Pacific–North America-like responses. This study further investigates global atmospheric responses to realistic extensive spring TP snow anomalies using observations and ensemble transient model integrations. Model ensemble simulations are forced by satellite-derived observed March–May TP snow cover extent and snow water equivalent in years with heavy or light TP snow. Heavy spring TP snow causes simultaneous significant local surface cooling and precipitation decreases over and near the TP snow anomaly. Distant responses include weaker surface cooling over most Asian areas surrounding the TP, a weaker drying band extending east and northeast into the North Pacific Ocean, and increased precipitation in a region surrounding this drying band. Also, there is tropospheric cooling from the TP into the North Pacific and over most of North America and the North Atlantic Ocean. The TP snow anomaly induces a negative North Pacific Oscillation/western Pacific–like teleconnection response throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Atmospheric responses also include significantly increased Pacific trade winds, a strengthened intertropical convergence zone over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and an enhanced local Hadley circulation. This result suggests a near-global impact of the TP snow anomaly in nearly all seasons.

scholarly journals Links of the significant wave height distribution in the Mediterranean sea with the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 13-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Lionello ◽  
M. B. Galati
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Height Distribution ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
Wave Height Distribution ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. This study analyzes the link between the SWH (Significant Wave Height) distribution in the Mediterranean Sea during the second half of the 20th century and the Northern Hemisphere SLP (Sea Level Pressure) teleconnection patterns. The SWH distribution is computed using the WAM (WAve Model) forced by the surface wind fields provided by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the period 1958–2001. The time series of mid-latitude teleconnection patterns are downloaded from the NOAA web site. This study shows that several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part during the cold season: East Atlantic Pattern (EA), Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR) and East Pacific/ North Pacific Pattern (EP/NP). Though the East Atlantic pattern exerts the largest influence, it is not sufficient to characterize the dominant variability. NAO, though relevant, has an effect smaller than EA and comparable to other patterns. Some link results from possibly spurious structures. Patterns which have a very different global structure are associated to similar spatial features of the wave variability in the Mediterranean Sea. These two problems are, admittedly, shortcomings of this analysis, which shows the complexity of the response of the Mediterranean SWH to global scale SLP teleconnection patterns.

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