scholarly journals Benchmark seasonal prediction skill estimates based on regional indices

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1073-1088 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Walsh ◽  
J. Scott Stewart ◽  
Florence Fetterer
Keyword(s):  
Chukchi Sea ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
Regional Forecasts

Abstract. Basic statistical metrics such as autocorrelations and across-region lag correlations of sea ice variations provide benchmarks for the assessments of forecast skill achieved by other methods such as more sophisticated statistical formulations, numerical models, and heuristic approaches. In this study we use observational data to evaluate the contribution of the trend to the skill of persistence-based statistical forecasts of monthly and seasonal ice extent on the pan-Arctic and regional scales. We focus on the Beaufort Sea for which the Barnett Severity Index provides a metric of historical variations in ice conditions over the summer shipping season. The variance about the trend line differs little among various methods of detrending (piecewise linear, quadratic, cubic, exponential). Application of the piecewise linear trend calculation indicates an acceleration of the winter and summer trends during the 1990s. Persistence-based statistical forecasts of the Barnett Severity Index as well as September pan-Arctic ice extent show significant statistical skill out to several seasons when the data include the trend. However, this apparent skill largely vanishes when the data are detrended. In only a few regions does September ice extent correlate significantly with antecedent ice anomalies in the same region more than 2 months earlier. The springtime “predictability barrier” in regional forecasts based on persistence of ice extent anomalies is not reduced by the inclusion of several decades of pre-satellite data. No region shows significant correlation with the detrended September pan-Arctic ice extent at lead times greater than a month or two; the concurrent correlations are strongest with the East Siberian Sea. The Beaufort Sea's ice extent as far back as July explains about 20 % of the variance of the Barnett Severity Index, which is primarily a September metric. The Chukchi Sea is the only other region showing a significant association with the Barnett Severity Index, although only at a lead time of a month or two.

scholarly journals Seasonal sea ice prediction based on regional indices

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Walsh ◽  
J. Scott Stewart ◽  
Florence Fetterer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Chukchi Sea ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Arctic Ice

Abstract. Basic statistical metrics such as autocorrelations and across-region lag correlations of sea ice variations provide benchmarks for the assessments of forecast skill achieved by other methods such as more sophisticated statistical formulations, numerical models, and heuristic approaches. However, the strong negative trend of sea ice coverage in recent decades complicates the evaluation of statistical skill by inflating the correlation of interannual variations of pan-Arctic and regional ice extent. In this study we provide a quantitative evaluation of the contribution of the trend to the predictive skill of monthly and seasonal ice extent on the pan-Arctic and regional scales. We focus on the Beaufort Sea where the Barnett Severity Index provides a metric of historical variations in ice conditions over the summer shipping season. The variance about the trend line differs little among various methods of detrending (piecewise linear, quadratic, cubic, exponential). Application of the piecewise linear trend calculation indicates an acceleration of the trend during the 1990s in most of the Arctic subregions. The Barnett Severity Index as well as September pan-Arctic ice extent show significant statistical predictability out to several seasons when the data include the trend. However, this apparent skill largely vanishes when the data are detrended. No region shows significant correlation with the detrended September pan-Arctic ice extent at lead times greater than a month or two; the concurrent correlations are strongest with the East Siberian Sea. The Beaufort Sea’s ice extent as far back as July explains about 20 % of the variance of the Barnett Severity Index, which is primarily a September metric. The Chukchi Sea is the only other region showing a significant association with the Barnett Severity Index, although only at a lead time of a month or two.

Identifying changes in trends in the age standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 250-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M Hille
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Health Issue ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Piecewise Linear Regression ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Males And Females

ObjectiveTo identify changes in the linear trend of the age-standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia for all persons, males, and females. MethodsA two-piece piecewise linear regression was fitted to the data. The piecewise breakpoint varied through an iterative process to determine the model that best fits the data.ResultsStatistically significant changes in the trendof the age-standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia were found for all persons, males, and females. The optimal breakpoint for all persons and males was at 1998. For females, the optimal breakpoint was at 2005. The trend after these breakpoints was flatter than prior to the breakpoints, but still positive.ConclusionMelanoma is a significant public health issue in Australia. Overall incidence continues to increase. However, the rate at which the incidence is increasing appears to be decreasing.

scholarly journals The relationship between SPAD chlorophyll and disease severity index in Ganoderma-infected oil palm seedlings

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.R.M. Rakib ◽  
A.H. Borhan ◽  
A.N. Jawahir
Keyword(s):  
Chlorophyll Content ◽  
Disease Severity ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Single Photon ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Quadratic Model ◽  
Wood Block ◽  
Disease Severity Index ◽  
The Relationship

Establishment of disease in oil palm seedlings through artificial inoculation of Ganoderma are widely used for studies of various aspects of plant pathology, including epidemiology, etiology, disease resistance, host-parasite interaction and disease control. The estimation of chlorophyll content in the infected seedlings possibly could provide a good indicator for degree of disease or infection, and changes during pathogenesis. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between disease severity index (DSI) and chlorophyll content in Ganoderma infected oil palm seedlings. Three-month-old oil palm seedlings were infected with Ganoderma inoculum on rubber wood block (RWB), where 44 isolates of Ganoderma were tested. Disease severity index (DSI) and chlorophyll content using a single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) meter were recorded at 4 weeks interval for a period of 24 weeks after inoculation (WAI). Pearson's correlation analysis and regression analysis were performed to evaluate the relationship between the variables. It was found that the relationship between DSI and SPAD chlorophyll value was inversely proportional (R = -0.92) in a linear trend (R2 = 0.85). Furthermore, the increasing trend of the DSI across the weeks were fitted in a quadratic model (R2 = 0.99). In contrast, the SPAD chlorophyll value declined in a linear trend (R2 = 0.98). The SPAD chlorophyll value could be considered as a better alternative over the DSI as the SPAD chlorophyll value was strongly related to DSI, as well as able to detect physiological changes in the infected oil palm seedlings at the early stages of pathogenesis. J Bangladesh Agril Univ 17(3): 355–358, 2019

Characterization of Nonlinear Rattling Behavior of a Gear Pair Through a Validated Torsional Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ata Donmez ◽  
Ahmet Kahraman
Keyword(s):  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Nonlinear Behavior ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
System Response ◽  
Gear Pair ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Linear Solution ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Gear Rattle

Abstract Dynamic response of a gear pair subjected to input and output torque or velocity fluctuations is examined analytically. Such motions are commonly observed in various powertrain systems and identified as gear rattle or hammering motions with severe noise and durability consequences. A reduced-order torsional model is proposed along with a computationally efficient piecewise-linear solution methodology to characterize the system response including its sensitivity to excitation parameters. Validity of the proposed model is established through comparisons of its predictions to measurements from a gear rattle experimental set-up. A wide array of nonlinear behavior is demonstrated through presentation of periodic and chaotic responses in the forms of phase plots, Poincaré maps, and bifurcation diagrams. The severity of the resultant impacts on the noise outcome is also assessed through a rattle severity index defined by using the impact velocities.

scholarly journals Control Design and Validation for Floating Piston Electro-Pneumatic Gearbox Actuator

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Szabo ◽  
Tamas Becsi ◽  
Peter Gaspar
Keyword(s):  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Control Design ◽  
Continuous Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Modeling And Control ◽  
Control Frequency ◽  
Heavy Duty Vehicle ◽  
High Control ◽  
And Control

The paper presents the modeling and control design of a floating piston electro-pneumatic gearbox actuator and, moreover, the industrial validation of the controller system. As part of a heavy-duty vehicle, it needs to meet strict and contradictory requirements and units applying the system with different supply pressures in order to operate under various environmental conditions. Because of the high control frequency domain of the real system, post-modern control methods with high computational demands could not be used as they do not meet real-time requirements on automotive level. During the modeling phase, the essential simplifications are shown with the awareness of the trade-off between calculation speed and numerical accuracy to generate a multi-state piecewise-linear system. Two LTI control methods are introduced, i.e., a PD and an Linear-Quadratic Regulators (LQR) solution, in which the continuous control signals are transformed into discrete voltage solenoid commands for the valves. The validation of both the model and the control system are performed on a real physical implementation. The results show that both modeling and control design are suitable for the control tasks using floating piston cylinders and, moreover, these methods can be extended to electro-pneumatic cylinders with different layouts.

scholarly journals FIRST INSTRUMENTAL AERIAL SURVEY OF RINGED SEALS (PUSA HISPIDA) AND BEARDED SEALS (ERIGNATHUS BARBATUS) IN THE RUSSIAN ZONE OF THE CHUKCHI AND EAST-SIBERIAN SEAS IN SPRING 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 152-162
Author(s):  
V. I. Chernook ◽  
I. S. Trukhanova ◽  
A. N. Vasiliev ◽  
D. I. Litovka ◽  
D. M. Glazov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Chukchi Sea ◽  
Aircraft Engine ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Ringed Seals ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Pusa Hispida ◽  
Abundance And Distribution ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Bearded Seals

An instrumental aerial survey was conducted in the Russian part of the Chukchi Sea and the eastern East-Siberian Sea in the spring of 2016 to investigate new technical capabilities for estimating abundance and distribution of ringed and bearded seals on the spring ice. Density of both species decreased with distance to the mainland; the largest concentrations of ringed seals were detected in coastal waters, including the Koluchinskaya and Chaunskaya Bays. Taking into account the portion of seals in the water (on average 32 %) and the portion of seals that were disturbed by the aircraft engine noise and dove (on average 30.2 % of ringed seals and 5.9 % of bearded seals), the number of ringed seals in the surveyed area was estimated as 50,839 (СI 95 %: 25,400–73,859; CV = 23.8 %), and the number of bearded seals as 14,590 (CI 95 %: 6,404–24,560; CV = 31.1 %). These estimates are considered to be biased low, primarily due to asynchronic collapse of the ringed seal snow lairs in different parts of the surveyed area, which caused a highly variable detection probability of this species that was difficult to account for.

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