scholarly journals Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 941-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Wiltshire
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Hindu Kush

Abstract. The Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH) region has a negative average glacial mass balance for the present day despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate over the 21st century may influence the mass balance across the HKH. This study uses regional climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated positive degree days for the Hindu Kush (HK), Karakoram (KK), Jammu–Kashmir (JK), Himachal Pradesh and West Nepal regions (HP), and East Nepal and Bhutan (NB). The analysis focuses on the climate drivers of change rather than the glaciological response. Presented is a complex regional pattern of climate change, with a possible increase in snowfall over the western HKH and decreases in the east. Accumulated degree days are less spatially variable than precipitation and show an increase in potential ablation in all regions combined with increases in the length of the seasonal melt period. From the projected change in regional climate the possible implications for future glacier mass balance are inferred. Overall, within the modelling framework used here the eastern Himalayan glaciers (Nepal–Bhutan) are the most vulnerable to climate change due to the decreased snowfall and increased ablation associated with warming. The eastern glaciers are therefore projected to decline over the 21st Century despite increasing precipitation. The western glaciers (Hindu Kush, Karakoram) are expected to decline at a slower rate over the 21st century in response to unmitigated climate compared to the glaciers of the east. Importantly, regional climate change is highly uncertain, especially in important cryospheric drivers such as snowfall timing and amounts, which are poorly constrained by observations. Data are available from the author on request.

scholarly journals Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu-Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 3717-3748 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Wiltshire
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Accumulated Degree Days

Abstract. The Hindu-Kush, Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH) region has a negative average glacial mass balance despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate may influence the mass balance across the HKKH. We use high resolution climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated degree days for the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and West Nepal regions, and East Nepal and Bhutan. In our analysis we focus on the climate drivers of change rather than the glaciological response. We find a complex regional response to climate change, with possible increases in snowfall over the western HKKH and decreases in the east. Accumulated degree days are less spatially variable than precipitation and show an increase in potential ablation in all regions. Overall, the eastern Himalayan glaciers are expected to be most sensitive to climate change due to the decreases in snowfall and increased ablation associated with warming. The eastern glaciers are therefore projected to decline over the 21st century despite increasing precipitation. The western glaciers are expected to decline at a slower rate over the 21st century as a response to unmitigated climate compared to the glaciers of the east. Importantly, the glacier response depends on important glaciological factors, such as the extent of debris cover, which may be of critical importance in moderating the response to climatic change. Decadal variability has a large effect highlighting the need for long-term observation records to fully understand the impact of climate on the glaciers of the HKKH cryosphere. Spatial variability in projected snowfall patterns are likely to be a key driver of glacier mass balance over the 21st century. Importantly, the regional trends in snowfall do not necessarily follow the trends in precipitation. A key change in the HKKH cryosphere is a switch from snowfall to rainfall in the eastern Himalaya. Although glacial mass balance is likely to be sensitive to climate change, as overall precipitation is projected to increase this may lead to an overall increase in water resources. In the west, projections suggest that glacial mass balance could respond less to climate change than those in the east. However, projection uncertainty covers a small increase to a decrease in precipitation for the western HKKH and Indus basin and as a result the water resources of the highly populated Indus region may be more vulnerable to unmitigated climate change.

scholarly journals Hindu Kush Himalayan Ecosystem as a Common Concern of Humankind: Imperative for Better Regional Jurisprudence

2017 ◽  
pp. 42-52
Author(s):  
Debasis Poddar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Common Concern ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
The World

Hindu Kush Himalayan region (hereafter the HKH) - with 3500 odd kilometres stretched in eight countries- is default resource generation hub for about one-fifth population of the world. The ecosystem-growing delicate these days- seems to play a critical role for the survival of flora and fauna along with the maintenance of all its life-sustaining mountain glaciers. Ten major rivers to carry forward hitherto sustainable development of these peoples fall into question now. Further, in the wake of global climate change today, the delicate HKH ecosystem becomes increasingly fragile to unfold manifold consequences and thereby take its toll on the population. And the same might turn apocalyptic in its magnanimity of irreversibledamage. Like time-bomb, thus, climate ticks to get blown off. As it is getting already too delayed for timely resort to safeguards, if still not taken care of in time, lawmakers ought to find the aftermath too late to lament for. Besides being conscious for climate discipline across the world, collective efforts on the part of all regional states together are imperative to minimize the damage. Therefore, each one has put hands together to be saved from the doomsday that appears to stand ahead to accelerate a catastrophicend, in the given speed of global climate change. As the largest Himalayan state and its central positioning at the top of the HKH, Nepal has had potential to play a criticalrole to engage regional climate change regime and thereby spearhead climate diplomacy worldwide to play regional capital of the HKH ecosystem. As regional superpower, India has had potential to usurp leadership avatar to this end. With reasoningof his own, the author pleads for better jurisprudence to attain regional environmental integrity inter se- rather than regional environmental integration alone- to defendthe vulnerable HKH ecosystem since the same constitutes common concern of humankind and much more so for themselves. Hence, to quote from Shakespeare, “To be or not to be, that is the question” is reasonable here. While states are engaged in the spree to cause mutually agreed destruction, global climate change- with deadly aftermath- poses the last and final unifier for them to turn United Nations in rhetoric sense o f the term.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on Lake Fluctuations in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiankun Yang ◽  
Xixi Lu ◽  
Edward Park ◽  
Paolo Tarolli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Changing Patterns

Lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) regions are crucial indicators for the combined impacts of regional climate change and resultant glacier retreat. However, they lack long-term systematic monitoring and thus their responses to recent climatic change still remain only partially understood. This study investigated lake extent fluctuations in the HKHT regions over the past 40 years using Landsat (MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI) images obtained from the 1970s to 2014. Influenced by different regional atmospheric circulation systems, our results show that lake changing patterns are distinct from region to region, with the most intensive lake shrinking observed in northeastern HKHT (HKHT Interior, Tarim, Yellow, Yangtze), while the most extensive expansion was observed in the western and southwestern HKHT (Amu Darya, Ganges Indus and Brahmaputra), largely caused by the proliferation of small lakes in high-altitude regions during 1970s–1995. In the past 20 years, extensive lake expansions (~39.6% in area and ~119.1% in quantity) were observed in all HKHT regions. Climate change, especially precipitation change, is the major driving force to the changing dynamics of the lake fluctuations; however, effects from the glacier melting were also significant, which contributed approximately 31.9–40.5%, 16.5–39.3%, 12.8–29.0%, and 3.3–6.1% of runoff to lakes in the headwaters of the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, and Ganges, respectively. We consider that the findings in this paper could have both immediate and long-term implications for dealing with water-related hazards, controlling glacial lake outburst floods, and securing water resources in the HKHT regions, which contain the headwater sources for some of the largest rivers in Asia that sustain 1.3 billion people.

scholarly journals An integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 2213-2248 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Monier ◽  
J. R. Scott ◽  
A. P. Sokolov ◽  
C. E. Forest ◽  
C. A. Schlosser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate Parameters ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Integrated Assessment Modelling ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. This paper describes an integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyse uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the economic model parameters and uncertainty in future climate policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. Thus, the IGSM-CAM is a computationally efficient framework to explore the uncertainty in future global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions. This study presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) and three sets of climate parameters. The chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century global climate change. As such, this study presents new estimates of the 90% probability interval of regional climate change for different emissions scenarios. These results underscore the large uncertainty in regional climate change resulting from uncertainty in climate parameters and emissions, especially when it comes to changes in precipitation.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Estimation of the Olive and Vine Cultivations’ Growing Degree Days in the Balkans Region

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 148
Author(s):  
Ioannis Charalampopoulos ◽  
Iliana Polychroni ◽  
Emmanouil Psomiadis ◽  
Panagiotis Nastos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
High Quality ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Change Trend

Olive and vine cultivations are two of the most important crops in Europe, yielding high quality and value food products. The climate change over the Balkans may elevate the agroecological pressure for the established crops and shift their cultivations areas. One of the widely-used agroclimatic indices is the growing degree days (GDD) which accumulates the necessary thermal units for the selected crops. Despite the advances on the agroclimatic research, there are few available methods for spatiotemporal estimation of this useful index. So, this research is focused on the construction of simple and reliable equations for the calculation and projection of olive and vine cultivations’ GDD over the Balkans. The models’ input parameters are the time, the altitude, the distance from the seashore, and the latitude. Its assembly is made by the extracted spatial data, combined with the Agri4Cast dataset for the period of 1980 to 2018 incorporating the regional climate change trend. The results indicate that the most influential parameter is the time, followed by the latitude, for both cultivations. According to the projections, as quantified by GDD, a vast sprawl of olive and vine cultivation areas will have been formed to the northern parts of the studied area. To be more precise, the viticulture could expand spatially by 28.8% (of the Balkans area) by 2040, and by 15.1% to 2060, when the olive cultivations’ area could sprawl 23.9% by 2040 and 20.3% by 2060.

scholarly journals Little Ice Age glaciers and climate in the Mediterranean mountains: a new analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.D. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
High Atlas ◽  
Mediterranean Mountains ◽  
The Mediterranean

Glaciers were common across the Mediterranean mountains during the Little Ice Age. In parts of Turkey some glaciers were several kilometres longer than they are today, whilst in the Pyrenees glaciers were up to several hundred metres longer. In the wettest Mediterranean mountains, such as the Dinaric Alps, many small glaciers and perennial snow patches would have been present. Even in driest and most southerly mountains, such as the High Atlas, small glaciers and perennial snowfields were present. This paper examines the evidence from these two contrasting regions (the western and southern Balkans and the High Atlas) and the climatic significance of glaciers in these areas during the Little Ice Age. Particular focus is given on the climatological controls on glacier mass balance in different climatic conditions. Glaciers in cold and dry climates exhibit different sensitivity to regional climate change compared with glaciers in cold and wet climates. In addition, the factors controlling ablation of glaciers in different climatic regimes can differ considerably, especially the relative contributions and effects of melting and sublimation. All Mediterranean mountain glaciers were strongly controlled by local topoclimatic factors. Avalanche-fed glaciers have proven to be the most resilient to climate change and dramatically increased accumulation from avalanching snow explains the surviving glaciers in the Dinaric Alps and the semi-perennial snow fields of the High Atlas. In addition, geology as well as landscape morphology inherited from Pleistocene glaciations plays a role in explaining the patterns of Little Ice Age glacier distribution and especially the patterns of retreat and survival of these glaciers. The resilience of some of the last remaining Mediterranean glaciers, in the face of warming climate, presents a contradiction and comparisons between glaciers gone and those that remain provides important insight into the future of similar glaciers globally.

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