Uncertainty in future solid ice discharge from Antarctica

Abstract. Future solid ice discharge from Antarctica under climate scenarios based on the Extended Concentration Pathways is investigated with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), a shallow model with a consistent representation of the ice flow in sheet, shelves and the transition zone. Both the uncertainty in the climate forcing as well as the intra-model uncertainty are combined into a probability distribution for solid ice discharge from Antarctica until the year 2500 under the ECP scenarios: All simulations are performed for a 81-member perturbed-physics ensemble and the likely ranges of surface and ocean warming under the emission pathways derived from the results of 20 CMIP3-AOGCMS. The effects of surface warming, ocean warming and increased precipitation on solid ice discharge are separately considered. We find that solid ice discharge caused by enhanced sub-shelf melting exceeds that caused by surface warming. Increasing precipitation leads to a change from net sea-level rise to sea-level drop. Our results suggest that the history of the ice-sheet plays an important role with respect to projections of solid ice discharge. Although all climate-change-forced simulations begin with the year 1850, the ice discharge around 2000 is significantly smaller than observed. Observed changes in ice discharge are reached around 2077 under the ECP-8.5 scenario. During the subsequent century, ice discharge reaches up to 0.24 m.

Download Full-text

Glacial and Sea Level History of Lowther and Griffith Islands, Northwest Territories: A Hint of Tectonics

Géographie physique et Quaternaire ◽

10.7202/032944ar ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 133-145 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Arthur S. Dyke

Keyword(s):

Northwest Territories ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Canadian Arctic ◽

Laurentide Ice Sheet ◽

Structural Elements ◽

Ice Flow ◽

Ice Load ◽

Last Glaciation ◽

History Of

ABSTRACT Lowther and Griffith islands, in the centre of Parry Channel, were overrun by the Laurentide Ice Sheet early in the last glaciation. Northeastward Laurentide ice flow persisted across at least Lowther Island until early Holocene déglaciation. Well constrained postglacial emergence curves for the islands confirm a southward dip of raised shorelines, contrary to the dip expected from the ice load configuration. This and previously reported incongruities may indicate regionally extensive tectonic complications of postglacial rebound aligned with major structural elements in the central Canadian Arctic Islands.

Download Full-text

Antarctic ice sheet response to upper-bound scenarios

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11823 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sainan Sun ◽

Frank Pattyn

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Upper Bound ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Climate Forcing ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Shelves ◽

Basal Sliding ◽

The Antarctic

Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet contributes the largest uncertainty of future sea-level rise projections. Ice-sheet model predictions are limited by uncertainties in climate forcing and poor understanding of processes such as ice viscosity. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) has investigated the 'end-member' scenario, i.e., a total and sustained removal of buttressing from all Antarctic ice shelves, which can be regarded as the upper-bound physical possible, but implausible contribution of sea-level rise due to ice-shelf loss. In this study, we add successive layers of &#8216;realism&#8217; to the ABUMIP scenario by considering sustained regional ice-shelf collapse and by introducing ice-shelf regrowth after collapse with the inclusion of ice-sheet and ice-shelf damage (Sun et al., 2017). Ice shelf regrowth has the ability to stabilize grounding lines, while ice shelf damage may reinforce ice loss. In combination with uncertainties from basal sliding and ice rheology, a more realistic physical upperbound to ice loss is sought. Results are compared in the light of other proposed mechanisms, such as MICI due to ice cliff collapse.

Download Full-text

Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet Projections to Model Formulations

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2013jog12j182 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 59 (216) ◽

pp. 733-749 ◽

Cited By ~ 87

Author(s):

H. Goelzer ◽

P. Huybrechts ◽

J.J. Fürst ◽

F.M. Nick ◽

M.L. Andersen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate Model ◽

Sea Level ◽

Flow Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Flow ◽

Outlet Glacier ◽

Glacier Dynamics

AbstractPhysically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31 % higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4.

Download Full-text

Friction at the bed does not control fast glacier flow

Science ◽

10.1126/science.aat2217 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 361 (6399) ◽

pp. 273-277 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

L. A. Stearns ◽

C. J. van der Veen

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Frictional Stress ◽

Ice Flow ◽

Mountain Glaciers ◽

Theoretical Predictions ◽

Basal Sliding ◽

Net Pressure ◽

Glacier Flow

The largest uncertainty in the ice sheet models used to predict future sea level rise originates from our limited understanding of processes at the ice/bed interface. Near glacier termini, where basal sliding controls ice flow, most predictive ice sheet models use a parameterization of sliding that has been theoretically derived for glacier flow over a hard bed. We find that this sliding relation does not apply to the 140 Greenland glaciers that we analyzed. There is no relationship between basal sliding and frictional stress at the glacier bed, contrary to theoretical predictions. There is a strong relationship between sliding speed and net pressure at the glacier bed. This latter finding is in agreement with earlier observations of mountain glaciers that have been largely overlooked by the glaciological community.

Download Full-text

Formational history of the Wicklow Trough: a marine‐transgressed tunnel valley revealing ice flow velocity and retreat rates for the largest ice stream draining the late‐Devensian British–Irish Ice Sheet

Journal of Quaternary Science ◽

10.1002/jqs.3234 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 35 (7) ◽

pp. 907-919 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mark Coughlan ◽

Zsuzsanna TÓth ◽

Katrien J. J. Van Landeghem ◽

Stephen Mccarron ◽

Andrew J. Wheeler

Keyword(s):

Flow Velocity ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Flow ◽

Ice Stream ◽

History Of

Download Full-text

On the Glacial History of Antarctica

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0022143000027386 ◽

1962 ◽

Vol 4 (32) ◽

pp. 173-195 ◽

Cited By ~ 173

Author(s):

J. T. Hollin

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

World Wide ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Time Lags ◽

Glacial History ◽

Ice Shelves ◽

Field Evidence ◽

Grounding Line ◽

History Of

AbstractThe Antarctic Ice Sheet responds quickly to regime changes, and time lags in its fluctuations are relatively small. During the Pleistocene glacial stages of the Northern Hemisphere, world-wide temperature reductions reduced the plasticity of the ice sheet and made it thicker. The amount of thickening depended on the conditions at the ice base but it was small, for mechanical and thermal reasons. Also, during the northern stages, accumulation over Antarctica was probably less than now, but this too had little effect on the thickness of the ice sheet. The mass budget of the ice sheet alone, without the ice shelves, probably remained strongly positive; the ice sheet probably existed throughout the Pleistocene and is unlikely to disappear in the future. The area of the ice sheet is determined chiefly by the elevation of the “grounding line”, where the peripheral ice cliffs and ice shelves begin to float. During the northern stages, world-wide lowerings of sea-level displaced the grounding line downwards and northwards, and allowed the ice sheet to advance by amounts which account for nearly all the evidence for previous greater glaciations. In summary, the glacial history of most ice-free areas is governed not so much by climatic as by sea-level changes. Therefore, Antarctic glacial fluctuations were dependent on and in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere. The field evidence from Antarctica has little bearing on the ultimate causes of glacial fluctuations, which might however be determined by field work on the planet Mars.

Download Full-text

PISM paleo simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15081 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Torsten Albrecht ◽

Ricarda Winkelmann ◽

Anders Levermann

Keyword(s):

Boundary Conditions ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Glacial Cycles ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

History Of ◽

Global Sea Level ◽

Glacial Time ◽

The Antarctic

Simulations of the glacial-interglacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet provide insights into dynamic threshold behavior and estimates of the ice sheet's contributions to global sea-level changes, for the past, present and future. However, boundary conditions are weakly constrained, in particular at the interface of the ice-sheet and the bedrock. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the dynamic effects of different choices of input data and of various parameterizations on the sea-level relevant ice volume. We evaluate the model's transient sensitivity to corresponding parameter choices and to different boundary conditions over the last two glacial cycles and provide estimates of involved uncertainties. We also present isolated and combined effects of climate and sea-level forcing on glacial time scales.&#160;

Download Full-text

Progress report on the Antarctic ice sheet

Polar Record ◽

10.1017/s0032247400050531 ◽

1960 ◽

Vol 10 (64) ◽

pp. 3-10 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

G. de Q. Robin

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Ross Sea ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Great Depth ◽

Progress Report ◽

The Other ◽

The Past ◽

History Of ◽

Antarctic Continent ◽

The Antarctic

The art, science and sport of conducting scientific traverses across the Antarctic continent has advanced so rapidly during the past decade that we are making considerable progress towards understanding the main characteristics of that continent and its ice mantle. Many reports of recent work are provisional, so some changes of detail in the following account may eventually prove necessary. Nevertheless, some major features are now well established, such as the great depth of the subglacial floor to the east of the Ross Sea, and the observations that show considerable sections of the rock of East Antarctica† to be above sea level. On the other hand, the past glaciological history of the continent and the state of the present mass balance of the ice sheet still need much more investigation before we can be satisfied with the answers. The continued activity in Antarctica should result in our knowledge of the continent advancing much further during the coming decade.

Download Full-text

New observations on the relative sea level and deglacial history of Greenland from Innaarsuit, Disko Bugt

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1016/s0033-5894(03)00085-1 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 60 (2) ◽

pp. 162-171 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Antony J. Long ◽

David H. Roberts ◽

Morten Rasch

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Late Holocene ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

The South ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

West Greenland ◽

History Of ◽

A Site ◽

Marine Embayment

AbstractRelative sea level (RSL) data derived from isolation basins at Innaarsuit, a site on the south shores of the large marine embayment of Disko Bugt, West Greenland, record rapid RSL fall from the marine limit (ca. 108 m) at 10,300–9900 cal yr B.P. to reach the present sea level at 3500 cal yr B.P. Since 2000 cal yr B.P., RSL rose ca. 3 m to the present. When compared with data from elsewhere in Disko Bugt, our results suggest that the embayment was deglaciated later and more quickly than previously thought, at or slightly before 10,300 cal yr B.P. The northern part of Disko Bugt experienced less rebound (ca. 10 m at 6000 cal yr B.P.) compared with areas to the south. Submergence during the late Holocene supports a model of crustal down-warping as a result of renewed ice-sheet growth during the neoglacial. There is little evidence for west to east differences in crustal rebound across the southern shores of Disko Bugt.

Download Full-text

Asynchronous Antarctic and Greenland ice-volume contributions to the last interglacial sea-level highstand

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1513 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Eelco Rohling ◽

Fiona Hibbert

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Global Climate ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Climate Forcing ◽

Potential Contribution ◽

Last Interglacial ◽

Ice Shelf

Sea-level rise is among the greatest risks that arise from anthropogenic global climate change. It is receiving a lot of attention, among others in the IPCC reports, but major questions remain as to the potential contribution from the great continental ice sheets. In recent years, some modelling work has suggested that the ice-component of sea-level rise may be much faster than previously thought, but the rapidity of rise seen in these results depends on inclusion of scientifically debated mechanisms of ice-shelf decay and associated ice-sheet instability. The processes have not been active during historical times, so data are needed from previous warm periods to evaluate whether the suggested rates of sea-level rise are supported by observations or not. Also, we then need to assess which of the ice sheets was most sensitive, and why. The last interglacial (LIG; ~130,000 to ~118,000 years ago, ka) was the last time global sea level rose well above its present level, reaching a highstand of +6 to +9 m or more. Because Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contributions were smaller than that, this implies substantial Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) contributions. However, this still leaves the timings, magnitudes, and drivers of GrIS and AIS reductions open to debate. I will discuss recently published sea-level reconstructions for the LIG highstand, which reveal that AIS and GrIS contributions were distinctly asynchronous, and that rates of rise to values above 0 m (present-day sea level) reached up to 3.5 m per century. Such high pre-anthropogenic rates of sea-level rise lend credibility to high rates inferred by ice modelling under certain ice-shelf instability parameterisations, for both the past and future. Climate forcing was distinctly asynchronous between the southern and northern hemispheres as well during the LIG, explaining the asynchronous sea-level contributions from AIS and GrIS. Today, climate forcing is synchronous between the two hemispheres, and also faster and greater than during the LIG. Therefore, LIG rates of sea-level rise should likely be considered minimum estimates for the future.

Download Full-text