Bimodality in ensemble forecasts of 2 m temperature: identification

Abstract. Bimodality and other types of non-Gaussianity arise in ensemble forecasts of the atmosphere as a result of nonlinear spread across ensemble members. In this paper, bimodality in 50-member ECMWF ENS-extended ensemble forecasts is identified and characterized. Forecasts of 2 m temperature are found to exhibit widespread bimodality well over a derived false-positive rate. In some regions bimodality occurs in excess of 30 % of forecasts, with the largest rates occurring during lead times of 2 to 3 weeks. Bimodality occurs more frequently in the winter hemisphere with indications of baroclinicity being a factor to its development. Additionally, bimodality is more common over the ocean, especially the polar oceans, which may indicate development caused by boundary conditions (such as sea ice). Near the equatorial region, bimodality remains common during either season and follows similar patterns to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), suggesting convection as a possible source for its development. Over some continental regions the modes of the forecasts are separated by up to 15 °C. The probability density for the modes can be up to 4 times greater than at the minimum between the modes, which lies near the ensemble mean. The widespread presence of such bimodality has potentially important implications for decision makers acting on these forecasts. Bimodality also has implications for assessing forecast skill and for statistical postprocessing: several commonly used skill-scoring methods and ensemble dressing methods are found to perform poorly in the presence of bimodality, suggesting the need for improvements in how non-Gaussian ensemble forecasts are evaluated.

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Bimodality in Ensemble Forecasts of 2-Meter Temperature: Identification

10.5194/wcd-2021-33 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Cameron Drew Bertossa ◽

Peter Hitchcock ◽

Arthur DeGaetano ◽

Riwal Plougonven

Keyword(s):

False Positive Rate ◽

Equatorial Region ◽

Intertropical Convergence Zone ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Lead Times ◽

Scoring Methods ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Ensemble Mean ◽

Positive Rate ◽

Winter Hemisphere

Abstract. Bimodality and other types of non-Gaussianity arise in ensemble forecasts of the atmosphere as a result of non-linear spread across ensemble members. In this paper, bimodality in 50-member ECMWF ENS-extended ensemble forecasts is identified and characterized. Forecasts of 2-meter temperature are found to exhibit widespread bimodality well over a derived false-positive rate. In some regions bimodality occurs in excess of 30 % of forecasts, with the largest rates occurring during lead times of 2 to 3 weeks. Bimodality occurs more frequently in the winter hemisphere with indications of baroclinicity being a factor to its development. Additionally, bimodality is more common over the ocean, especially the polar oceans, which may indicate development caused by boundary conditions (such as sea ice). Near the equatorial region, bimodality remains common during either season and follows similar patterns to the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) suggesting convection as a possible source for its development. Over some continental regions the modes of the forecasts are separated by up to 15 °C. The probability density for the modes can be up to four times greater than at the minimum between the modes, which lies near the ensemble mean. The widespread presence of such bimodality has potentially important implications for decision makers acting on these forecasts. Bimodality also has implications for assessing forecast skill and for statistical post-processing: several commonly used skill scoring methods and ensemble dressing methods are found to perform poorly in the presence of bimodality.

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Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-18-0211.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 147 (5) ◽

pp. 1699-1712 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Bo Christiansen

Keyword(s):

High Dimensional ◽

Lead Times ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Analytical Results ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

Ensemble Mean ◽

The Individual ◽

Almost All ◽

Community Standard ◽

Better Than

Abstract In weather and climate sciences ensemble forecasts have become an acknowledged community standard. It is often found that the ensemble mean not only has a low error relative to the typical error of the ensemble members but also that it outperforms all the individual ensemble members. We analyze ensemble simulations based on a simple statistical model that allows for bias and that has different variances for observations and the model ensemble. Using generic simplifying geometric properties of high-dimensional spaces we obtain analytical results for the error of the ensemble mean. These results include a closed form for the rank of the ensemble mean among the ensemble members and depend on two quantities: the ensemble variance and the bias both normalized with the variance of observations. The analytical results are used to analyze the GEFS reforecast where the variances and bias depend on lead time. For intermediate lead times between 20 and 100 h the two terms are both around 0.5 and the ensemble mean is only slightly better than individual ensemble members. For lead times larger than 240 h the variance term is close to 1 and the bias term is near 0.5. For these lead times the ensemble mean outperforms almost all individual ensemble members and its relative error comes close to −30%. These results are in excellent agreement with the theory. The simplifying properties of high-dimensional spaces can be applied not only to the ensemble mean but also to, for example, the ensemble spread.

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A Comparison of Methods to Sample Model Errors for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts in the Setting of Multiscale Initial Conditions Produced by the GSI-Based EnVar Assimilation System

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-19-0124.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 148 (3) ◽

pp. 1177-1203 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Nicholas A. Gasperoni ◽

Xuguang Wang ◽

Yongming Wang

Keyword(s):

Initial Conditions ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Model Error ◽

Lead Times ◽

Model Errors ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

System A ◽

Ensemble Mean ◽

Statistical Interpolation ◽

Stochastic Physics

Abstract A gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI)-based hybrid ensemble–variational (EnVar) scheme was extended for convective scales—including radar reflectivity assimilation—and implemented in real-time spring forecasting experiments. This study compares methods to address model error during the forecast under the context of multiscale initial condition error sampling provided by the EnVar system. A total of 10 retrospective cases were used to explore the optimal design of convection-allowing ensemble forecasts. In addition to single-model single-physics (SMSP) configurations, ensemble forecast experiments compared multimodel (MM) and multiphysics (MP) approaches. Stochastic physics was also applied to MP for further comparison. Neighborhood-based verification of precipitation and composite reflectivity showed each of these model error techniques to be superior to SMSP configurations. Comparisons of MM and MP approaches had mixed findings. The MM approach had better overall skill in heavy-precipitation forecasts; however, MP ensembles had better skill for light (2.54 mm) precipitation and reduced ensemble mean error of other diagnostic fields, particularly near the surface. The MM experiment had the largest spread in precipitation, and for most hours in other fields; however, rank histograms and spaghetti contours showed significant clustering of the ensemble distribution. MP plus stochastic physics was able to significantly increase spread with time to be competitive with MM by the end of the forecast. The results generally suggest that an MM approach is best for early forecast lead times up to 6–12 h, while a combination of MP and stochastic physics approaches is preferred for forecasts beyond 6–12 h.

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Comparison of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Two Postprocessing Mechanisms

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-16-0293.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (11) ◽

pp. 2873-2891 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Yu Zhang ◽

Limin Wu ◽

Michael Scheuerer ◽

John Schaake ◽

Cezar Kongoli

Keyword(s):

The United States ◽

Storm Event ◽

Lead Times ◽

Ensemble Spread ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Ensemble Mean ◽

Medium Range ◽

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts ◽

The Mean ◽

Probability Of Precipitation

Abstract This article compares the skill of medium-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) generated via two postprocessing mechanisms: 1) the mixed-type meta-Gaussian distribution (MMGD) model and 2) the censored shifted Gamma distribution (CSGD) model. MMGD derives the PQPF by conditioning on the mean of raw ensemble forecasts. CSGD, on the other hand, is a regression-based mechanism that estimates PQPF from a prescribed distribution by adjusting the climatological distribution according to the mean, spread, and probability of precipitation (POP) of raw ensemble forecasts. Each mechanism is applied to the reforecast of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to yield a postprocessed PQPF over lead times between 24 and 72 h. The outcome of an evaluation experiment over the mid-Atlantic region of the United States indicates that the CSGD approach broadly outperforms the MMGD in terms of both the ensemble mean and the reliability of distribution, although the performance gap tends to be narrow, and at times mixed, at higher precipitation thresholds (>5 mm). Analysis of a rare storm event demonstrates the superior reliability and sharpness of the CSGD PQPF and underscores the issue of overforecasting by the MMGD PQPF. This work suggests that the CSGD’s incorporation of ensemble spread and POP does help enhance its skill, particularly for light forecast amounts, but CSGD’s model structure and its use of optimization in parameter estimation likely play a more determining role in its outperformance.

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Matched filtering with non-Gaussian noise for planet transit detections

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society ◽

10.1093/mnras/stab1178 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jakob Robnik ◽

Uroš Seljak

Keyword(s):

Fourier Transforms ◽

Matched Filter ◽

False Positive Rate ◽

Real Data ◽

Minimum Variance ◽

Parameter Analysis ◽

Planet Detection ◽

Positive Rate ◽

Optimal Accuracy ◽

Non Gaussian

Abstract We develop a method for planet detection in transit data, which is based on the Matched Filter technique, combined with the Gaussianization of the noise outliers. The method is based on Fourier transforms and is as fast as the existing methods for planet searches. The Gaussinized Matched Filter (GMF) method significantly outperforms the standard baseline methods in terms of the false positive rate, enabling planet detections at up to 30% lower transit amplitudes. Moreover, the method extracts all the main planet transit parameters, amplitude, period, phase, and duration. By comparison to the state of the art Gaussian Process methods on both simulations and real data we show that all the transit parameters are determined with an optimal accuracy (no bias and minimum variance), meaning that the GMF method can be used both for the initial planet detection and the follow-up planet parameter analysis.

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Improving diagnosis of acute appendicitis with atypical findings by Tc-99m HMPAO leukocyte scan

Nuklearmedizin ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1623994 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 41 (01) ◽

pp. 37-41 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

S. Shung-Shung ◽

S. Yu-Chien ◽

Y. Mei-Due ◽

W. Hwei-Chung ◽

A. Kao

Keyword(s):

Acute Appendicitis ◽

False Positive ◽

False Positive Rate ◽

Accurate Method ◽

Clinical Findings ◽

Pathological Findings ◽

Lower Quadrant ◽

Predictive Values ◽

Positive Rate

Summary Aim: Even with careful observation, the overall false-positive rate of laparotomy remains 10-15% when acute appendicitis was suspected. Therefore, the clinical efficacy of Tc-99m HMPAO labeled leukocyte (TC-WBC) scan for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in patients presenting with atypical clinical findings is assessed. Patients and Methods: Eighty patients presenting with acute abdominal pain and possible acute appendicitis but atypical findings were included in this study. After intravenous injection of TC-WBC, serial anterior abdominal/pelvic images at 30, 60, 120 and 240 min with 800k counts were obtained with a gamma camera. Any abnormal localization of radioactivity in the right lower quadrant of the abdomen, equal to or greater than bone marrow activity, was considered as a positive scan. Results: 36 out of 49 patients showing positive TC-WBC scans received appendectomy. They all proved to have positive pathological findings. Five positive TC-WBC were not related to acute appendicitis, because of other pathological lesions. Eight patients were not operated and clinical follow-up after one month revealed no acute abdominal condition. Three of 31 patients with negative TC-WBC scans received appendectomy. They also presented positive pathological findings. The remaining 28 patients did not receive operations and revealed no evidence of appendicitis after at least one month of follow-up. The overall sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values for TC-WBC scan to diagnose acute appendicitis were 92, 78, 86, 82, and 90%, respectively. Conclusion: TC-WBC scan provides a rapid and highly accurate method for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in patients with equivocal clinical examination. It proved useful in reducing the false-positive rate of laparotomy and shortens the time necessary for clinical observation.

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Predicting Fetal Chromosome Anomalies in the First Trimester Using Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A: A Comparison of Statistical Methods

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1634910 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 32 (02) ◽

pp. 175-179 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

B. Brambati ◽

T. Chard ◽

J. G. Grudzinskas ◽

M. C. M. Macintosh

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

General Population ◽

Likelihood Ratio ◽

False Positive ◽

False Positive Rate ◽

Ratio Method ◽

Detection Rates ◽

Gaussian Distributions ◽

Positive Rate ◽

Likelihood Ratio Method

Abstract:The analysis of the clinical efficiency of a biochemical parameter in the prediction of chromosome anomalies is described, using a database of 475 cases including 30 abnormalities. A comparison was made of two different approaches to the statistical analysis: the use of Gaussian frequency distributions and likelihood ratios, and logistic regression. Both methods computed that for a 5% false-positive rate approximately 60% of anomalies are detected on the basis of maternal age and serum PAPP-A. The logistic regression analysis is appropriate where the outcome variable (chromosome anomaly) is binary and the detection rates refer to the original data only. The likelihood ratio method is used to predict the outcome in the general population. The latter method depends on the data or some transformation of the data fitting a known frequency distribution (Gaussian in this case). The precision of the predicted detection rates is limited by the small sample of abnormals (30 cases). Varying the means and standard deviations (to the limits of their 95% confidence intervals) of the fitted log Gaussian distributions resulted in a detection rate varying between 42% and 79% for a 5% false-positive rate. Thus, although the likelihood ratio method is potentially the better method in determining the usefulness of a test in the general population, larger numbers of abnormal cases are required to stabilise the means and standard deviations of the fitted log Gaussian distributions.

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Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias: Comment

10.31222/osf.io/dh87m ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Amanda Kvarven ◽

Eirik Strømland ◽

Magnus Johannesson

Keyword(s):

Publication Bias ◽

False Positive ◽

Large Scale ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

False Positive Rate ◽

Effect Sizes ◽

Replication Studies ◽

Moderate Reduction ◽

Positive Rate ◽

Meta Analyses

Andrews & Kasy (2019) propose an approach for adjusting effect sizes in meta-analysis for publication bias. We use the Andrews-Kasy estimator to adjust the result of 15 meta-analyses and compare the adjusted results to 15 large-scale multiple labs replication studies estimating the same effects. The pre-registered replications provide precisely estimated effect sizes, which do not suffer from publication bias. The Andrews-Kasy approach leads to a moderate reduction of the inflated effect sizes in the meta-analyses. However, the approach still overestimates effect sizes by a factor of about two or more and has an estimated false positive rate of between 57% and 100%.

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Forms, Importance, and Ineffability of Factor Interactions to Define Personality Disorders: Comment on Lilienfeld et al. (2019)

10.31234/osf.io/v8t7q ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Stephen D Benning ◽

Edward Smith

Keyword(s):

Personality Disorders ◽

False Positive Rate ◽

Empirical Work ◽

Design Studies ◽

Linear Threshold ◽

Positive Rate ◽

Saturation Effects ◽

Factor Interactions ◽

Main Effects ◽

Criterion Variables

The emergent interpersonal syndrome (EIS) approach conceptualizes personality disorders as the interaction among their constituent traits to predict important criterion variables. We detail the difficulties we have experienced finding such interactive predictors in our empirical work on psychopathy, even when using uncorrelated traits that maximize power. Rather than explaining a large absolute proportion of variance in interpersonal outcomes, EIS interactions might explain small amounts of variance relative to the main effects of each trait. Indeed, these interactions may necessitate samples of almost 1,000 observations for 80% power and a false positive rate of .05. EIS models must describe which specific traits’ interactions constitute a particular EIS, as effect sizes appear to diminish as higher-order trait interactions are analyzed. Considering whether EIS interactions are ordinal with non-crossing slopes, disordinal with crossing slopes, or entail non-linear threshold or saturation effects may help researchers design studies, sampling strategies, and analyses to model their expected effects efficiently.

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