Evaluating Predictive power of Data Envelopment Analysis Technique Compared with Logit and Probit Models in Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (09) ◽  
pp. 38-46
Author(s):  
Khalili Araghi Maryam ◽  
Makvandi Sara

Simultaneous with extensive environmental changes and the rapid development of technology which has increasingly accelerated economy, competitiveness economical enterprises have restricted earning profit and make probable closing of bankrupt firms. Thus it seems necessary to find a model that can predict financial crisis and bankruptcy of companies. Nowadays occurrence of significant progress in other sciences, such as computer and math attract the attention of the financial scholars toward designing and using more exact patterns like Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). For this purpose, this study uses DEA technique to predict the bankruptcy likelihood of manufacturing firms and also compare its predictability with2 methods : Logit and Probit models. Study sample includes all manufacturing firms listed in Stock Exchange of Tehran from 2000-2010. The results showed that the accuracy of the designed model under DEA technique is %72 and the predictability of Logit and Probit models has been81, and %80 respectively. The results also showed DEA was proved to be an effective tool for predicting bankruptcy likelihood of manufacturing firms; but,it acted less efficient than Logit and Probit models.

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Dichi Febrian Putra

The aims of this study is to measure and explain the efficiency level of bank listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) 2012-2013, as well as to analyze the composition of input and output that must be performed by an inefficient banking and the best reference for an inefficient banking on efficient banking. The data analysis technique that used in this study is using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using a model of Constant Return to Scale (CRS) consisting of the input variable (deposit, fixed assets, and the cost of labor) and output (loans). The result of this study indicated that the 33 banks listed on the Stock Exchange has an average technical efficiency of 86.72% in 2012 and 84.98% in 2013. Overall only six banks that have 100% value of efficiency in 2012, while in 2013 there are five banks which have 100% value of efficiency. Banks that have an efficiency value 100% can be a reference for a bank that has inefficient value which is under 100%. The cause of large inefficiency is because the disbursed loan variable has a value 81.81% on 2012 and 84.84% on 2013.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 362-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vikas Vikas ◽  
Rohit Bansal

Purpose Data envelopment analysis (DEA), a non-parametric technique is used to assess the efficiency of decision-making units which are producing identical set of outputs using identical set of inputs. The purpose of this paper is to find the technical efficiency (TE), pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency (SE) levels of Indian oil and gas sector companies and to provide benchmark targets to the inefficient companies in order to achieve efficiency level. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, a group of 22 oil and gas companies which are listed on the National Stock Exchange for which the data were available for the period 2013–2017 has been considered. DEA has been performed to compare the efficiency levels of all companies. To measure efficiency, three input variables, namely, combined materials consumed and manufacturing expenses, employee benefit expenses and capital investment and two output variables – operating revenues and profit after tax (PAT) have been considered. On the basis of performance for the financial year ending 2017, benchmark targets based on DEA–CCR (Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes) model have been provided to the inefficient companies that should be focused upon by them to attain the efficiency level. The performance of the companies for the past five years has been examined to check the fluctuations in the various efficiency scores of the companies considered in the study over the years. Findings From the results obtained, it is observed that 59 percent, i.e. 13 out of 22 companies are technically efficient. By considering DEA BCC (Banker, Charnes and Cooper) model, 16 companies are observed to be pure technically efficient. In terms of SE, there are 14 such companies. The inefficient units need to improve in terms of input and output variables and for this motive, specified targets are assigned to them. Some of these companies need to upgrade significantly and the managers must take the concern earnestly. The study has also thrown light on the performance of the companies over last five years which shows Oil India Ltd, Gujarat State Petronet Ltd, Petronet LNG Ltd, IGL Ltd, Mahanagar Gas, Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd and BPCL Ltd as consistently efficient companies. Research limitations/implications The present study has made an attempt to evaluate the efficiency of Indian oil and gas sector. The results of the study have significant inferences for the policy makers and managers of the companies operating in the sector. The results of the study provide benchmark target level to the companies of Oil and Gas sector which can help the managers of the relatively less efficient companies to focus on the ways to improve efficiency. The improvement in efficiency of a company would not only benefit the shareholders, but also the investors and other stakeholders of the company. Originality/value In the context of Indian economy, very limited number of studies have focused to measure the efficiency of oil and gas sector in the context of Indian economy. The present study aims to provide the latest insight to the efficiency of the companies especially operating in the Indian oil and gas sector. Further, as per our knowledge, this study is distinctive in terms of analyzing the efficiency of Indian oil and gas sector for a period of five years. The longitudinal study of the sector efficiency provides a bird eye view of the average efficiency level and changes in the efficiency levels of the companies over the years.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-24
Author(s):  
Annisa Nur Hakim ◽  
A Jajang W Mahri ◽  
Aas Nurasyiah

Abstract.     Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil has experienced development in recent years. However, based on BMT performance data in West Bandung regency is less optimal. It is known that there are one efficient BMTs in West Bandung Regency and three BMTs that are inefficient. The cause of BMT's less optimal performance is inefficiency in operational activities. This study aims to determine the level of efficiency of BMT in West Bandung 2011-2017 period and find out the causes of inefficiency. This study uses secondary data from four BMTs in West Bandung District which are sampled. The research method used is descriptive method with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) analysis technique which is to measure the level of efficiency of a company. Input variables used are operating expenses, total assets, and TPF. Furthermore, the output variables used are SHU, income, and financing. Based on the results of research conducted, the conditions of the BMT in West Bandung Regency have not been perfectly efficient. There are three BMTs that have experienced inefficiencies including BMT Dana Ukhuwah, BMT Mustama, and BMT Rabbani. Keywords.          Efficiency, Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil, Data Envelopment Analysis


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 451
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nurul Qomaruddin ◽  
Ari Prasetyo

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Days Inventory, Days Receivable, Days Payable, Leverage . Debt to Equity Ratio, Current Ratio on Manufacturing Firms profitability in Indonesian Sharia Stock Index by 2011 until 2015. The problems in this research gap from former Research and the business gap phenomenon from the Manufacturing Firms over period 2011-2015. Therefore a deeper research to observe the problems which influence Return on Assets with reasonable theory Research variables consisted of six independent variables and 1 dependent variable is profitability (ROA). Data analysis technique to answer research problem and examine research hypothesis using Panel Data Regression Analysis. Data obtained from Indonesian Stock Exchange published via Website realtime, obtained 30 data samples. Based on the research, known that the effect of Days Payable on Manufacturing Firmsprofitability partially significant. Meanwhile, other independent variables partially not significant. Otherhand the effect ofall six independent variable simultaneous significant effect on Manufacturing Firms profitability


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Fiona Mutiara Efendi ◽  
Ngatno Ngatno

The rapid development of capital markets are now attracting the attention of people andcapital owners to invest in capital markets. During the year 2013-2016 the average stock price of the textile and garment enterprises sub-sector experienced a fluctuating condition. The financial ratios that are suspected to affect the ups and downs of stock prices are ROA and EPS. The population of this research are 15 Textile and Garment Sub-Sector Companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2013-2016. The analysis technique used is linear regression analysis with SPSS program. This study aims to determine the effect of ROA on stock prices through EPS as a mediator. The results showed that ROA has no significant effect on stock prices, but ROA has a significant influence on the mediation variable that is EPS. EPS variable has positive and significant effect to stock price. ROA and EPS have a significant effect on stock prices. EPS is fully mediated variable and can significantly mediate the relationship between ROA and stock prices. Based on the analysis results, can be concluded that the variables that affect the stock price is EPS, while the ROA variable does not affect the stock price. As well as EPS variables can mediated the relationship between ROA and stock prices. The results of this research, it is expected the company further increase the profitability of the company in order to increase the stock price so that it can give benefit the company and investors.


Media Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Zulfikar Adi Satria ◽  
Tri Kunawangsih P

<p><em>The purpose of this study was to determine how the structure, market concentration and efficiency of the telecommunication industry in Indonesia. The analysis technique used in this research is Concentration Ratio (CR4) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Total revenue of the Indonesia telecommunication industry from 2010-2015 were used to calculate Concentration Ratio (CR4) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) are input and output, the input consists of total assets, debt and equity, the output consists of total revenue and gross profits. Based on the analysis results of Concentration Ratio (CR4) is quite of very high ranging from 98,17% - 99,67%, the market structure in property industry classified within a very high concentrated oligopoly. Results from Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in 2010-2015 there were 1 efficient company. As a result of an oligopoly market structure is very tight, then in the telecommunications industry is a lot to make improvements to network sharing and speed the delivery of messages, telephone, and internet as well as to achieve efficient company should refer to the telecommunications industry, which reached the maximum efficient level. In order to achieve an efficient level that has not been efficient, the company must conduct debt reduction, labor usage more efficient and increase product sales.</em></p>


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