scholarly journals Effects of Some Monetary Policy Targets on Inflation and Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 412-422
Author(s):  
Amaefula C. G
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Order Zero ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Policy Targets

The persistent inflationary pressure despite monetary policy targets has become a phenomenon of interest among researchers. The study investigates the effects of monetary policy targets on inflation and its volatility in Nigeria using data spanning from 1985 to 2019. The ADF unit root test used confirmed that all the variables under study are integrated order zero in their level series. A Comparison of inflation volatility models (ARCH and GARCH models) with appropriate error distribution using AIC indicated that ARCH (1) is most appropriate. The results of least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML) ARCH methods of estimation for the model specifications showed that measures of monetary policy targets such as narrow money supply (M1), broad money supply(M2), net domestic credit(NDC), net credit to government(NCG) and credit to private sector(CPS) have no significant effect on inflation and inflation volatility respectively except M2. However, M2 effect spurs inflation rather than curbing it. Hence, it becomes imperative for the government to make proactive policies targeted to reduce inflationary pressures so as to attain price stability in Nigeria’s economic space. Keywords: monetary policy targets, inflation, Volatility models.

scholarly journals Effects of trend inflation on monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks in Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Ha ◽  
Finch Nigel
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis paper analyzes variations in effects of monetary and fiscal shocks on responses of macroeconomic variables, determinacy region and welfare costs due to changes in trend inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develops the New-Keynesian model, which the central banks can employ either nominal interest rate (IR rule) or money supply (MS rule) to conduct monetary policies. They also use their budgets for capital and recurrent spending to conduct fiscal policies. By using simulated method of moment (SMM) for parameter estimation, the authors characterize Vietnam's economy during 1996Q1 -2015Q1.FindingsThe results report that consequences of monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks become more serious if there is a rise in trend inflation. Furthermore, the money supply might not be an effective instrument and using the government budget for recurrent spending produces severe consequences in the high-trend-inflation economy.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that examines the effects of trend inflation on the monetary and fiscal policy implementation in the case of Vietnam.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Variables Relevance on Balance of Payments Adjustment in Nigeria 1980-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 07 (08) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald, Chimezie Nwadike ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Government

This study examines monetary policy relevance on the Nigerian balance of payments adjustment, form 1980-2020. Objectives are; to examine the relevance of monetary policy variables such as Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Balance of trade, Real Gross Domestic Product and Domestic Credit on the Nigerian balance of payments adjustment. Evaluate the significant speed of adjustment of monetary policy variables such as Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Balance of trade, Real Gross Domestic Product and Domestic Credit on the balance of payments adjustment within the period under study. The study employed the following advanced econometric techniques; Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, chow test, ECM model OLS model, statistical tests & Co-integration test. Based on the above econometric techniques conducted, it was observed that group unit root test result shows that variables used in the study became stationary after the first differenced at degree of order one I(I). There is Co-integration (long run relations) among variables used in the study. Our results indicated rejection of the two null hypotheses of this study and acceptation of the alternative three hypotheses that said; Nigerian monetary policy variables such as Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Balance of trade and Domestic Credit have significant relevance on the Nigerian balance of payments adjustment. Nigerian monetary policy variables used have significantly three years to adjust balance of payments adjustment in the Nigerian economy within the period of the study. The researcher recommends that; the need to manage domestic liquidity wisely in view of the tremendous pressure on the balance of payments of excess money. A determined effort to mobilize resources through private saving and the implementation of a prudent fiscal policy through efficient collection of tax revenues, rationalization of government expenditure towards growth enhancing and poverty reduction programmes will also enable the government to pursue its development programs without having to rely on the monetization of its budget deficit. Overall concentration on monetary tools solely should be reduced and employ other policy instruments to correct the balance of payment fluctuation. The government should also be cautious of budget deficit that are often time financed by internal borrowings.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KUWAIT FOR THE PERIOD OF 1980-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (9) ◽  
pp. 01-14
Author(s):  
Nor Asmat Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Government

The government of Kuwait has shifted its focus from the dependence on oil and has concentrated on applying a long-term strategic vision that seeks to recover the economy and raise the citizens’ standard of living. To accomplish these objectives, monetary policy should be formulated appropriately by the government. However, it seems that the effects of monetary policy instruments on the economic growth of Kuwait are not obvious. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to empirically explore the effect of monetary policy on Kuwaiti economic growth. This research uses annual time series data on real GDP, exchange rate, broad money supply (M2), consumer price index, and deposit interest rate over the period (1980 - 2020) and applies Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of the empirical analysis show the presence of a long-run relationship between real Gross Domestic Product and monetary policy instruments. Specifically, it finds that broad money supply (M2), deposit interest rate, and consumer price index affect economic growth positively and statistically significant. While the exchange rate affects real Gross Domestic Product negatively and statistically insignificant. The Granger causality test based on VECM shows two unidirectional causal relationships running from broad money supply and consumer price index to real GDP in the short run. Thus, the study suggests that policymakers concentrate on improving the economy by managing interest rates and maintain supporting environment for sustainable economic growth and development.

scholarly journals An Empirical Study on Monetary Policy and Economic Growth: The case of Indonesia using an ARDL – ECM Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 5908-5922
Author(s):  
Samoon Safiullah Et al.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Stationary Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

This study explores the role of monetary policy instruments, particularly through the board money supply and inflation, in support of economic growth in Indonesia. The research base on the long-run co-integration approach using the data from 1970 to 2019. The goal of this study complies with applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Error Correction Model (ECM), for finding out the long-run co-integration approach among dependents and independent variables. The research includes the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test for stationary analysis. The ECM results show that inflation plays a significant but negative role in economic growth in Indonesia. On the other hand, the money supply has also inversely related to the country's economic growth but not significant

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Spillovers Through Industrial Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olatunji A. Shobande
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Credit

Abstract The study examines the impact of switching from direct to indirect monetary policy on industrial growth in Nigeria, using the annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) statistical bulletin between 1960 and 2015. The study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) for estimating the relevant relationships. The result of the long-run estimates shows that domestic credit, interest rate and trade balance have positive impact on industrial output while money supply, inflation and exchange rate have negative impact on industrial growth. The result of the short-run dynamics shows that change in the previous (one and second lagged) periods of indirect monetary policy (interest rate, money supply, domestic credit and exchange rate) and industrial output were negatively related to change in industrial output. The error correction term indicates the speed of adjustment of equilibrium to their long-run position, which was found to be negative and significant. The study recommends that policy makers use both conventional and non-conventional monetary policies to speed up industrial output growth and enhance economic recovery by manipulating the macro-economic fundamentals.

The Supply of Money and Reichsbank Financing of Government and Corporate Debt in Germany, 1919–1923

1984 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 499-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven B. Webb
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
World War I ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Social Programs ◽  
World War ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

During the five years of inflation, price stability, and hyperinflation in Germany after World War I, three factors determined the growth of the money supply. First, the Reichsbank freely issued money in exchange for whatever government or corporate debt the private sector did not wish to hold at the official discount rate. Second, the government persistently ran large deficits. Political instability and the inflation itself prevented taxation adequate to pay for social programs, subsidies to the railroad and businesses, and reparations to the Allies. The third factor was expectations of inflation, which, as they became more pessimistic, led people to hold less and monetize more of the outstanding stock of debt. Thus, the money supply was partly endogenous and partly dependent on government fiscal policy. The monetary policy of the Reichsbank, although essential to the inflation process, was a constant and passive one until stabilization at the end of 1923.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Private Sector Credit Interaction in Ghana

2020 ◽  
pp. 180-191
Author(s):  
Alice Constance Mensah ◽  
Ebenezer Okyere
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

Using a series of econometric techniques, the study analysed interaction between monetary policy and private sector credit in Ghana. This study made use of monthly dataset spanning January 1999 to December 2019 of credit to the private sector (PSC) and broad money supply (M2). The results reveal that there exists cointegration, a long run stationary relation between monetary policy and private sector credit. This implies, increases in credit should prompt long-term increases in monetary policy. It is not surprising that growth in the private sector might have a stronger effect on monetary policy. The Error Correction Test is statistically significant and that all the variables demonstrate similar adjustment speeds. This implies that in the short run, both money supply and credit are somewhat equally responsive to their last period’s equilibrium error. There is unidirectional causation from private sector credit to monetary policy. It can be said that, there is an interaction between money supply and private sector credit. Thus, credit to private sector holds great potential in promoting economic growth. It can be recommended to the government to increase the credit flow to the private sector because of its strategic importance in creating and generating growth of the economy.

scholarly journals Efektivitas Fiskal - Moneter: Strategi Pemulihan Ekonomi Provinsi Riau Dalam Menghadapi Era New Normal

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Dwi Widiarsih ◽  
Ranti Darwin ◽  
Khairi Murdy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

This research use an empirical test of long-term balance and co-integration between macroeconomic variables, fiscal policy and monetary policy. Fiscal policy is represented by government spending variables, while monetary policy is represented by the money supply. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The research variables are economic growth, government spending and the money supply. The research period uses the period 2010-2019. The data quality test used the unit root test with the Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) method, to see the empirical data stationarity and the cointegration value of the variables. The research shows that the data is stationary in first difference. Based on the results of the VECM test, it can be concluded that there is a stable long-term relationship between variables and the research model. The results of data processing showed that the most effective policy for changing economic growth in Riau Province was fiscal policy, namely government spending. This can be seen from the contribution of fiscal policy to the variability of economic growth which is the largest compared to the contribution of monetary policy

Money supply and inflation impact on economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinh Doan Van
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Karl Marx ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Purpose At present, countries are concerned about inflation and the impact of inflation on each country’s economic growth. This inflation has been said by economists that inflation is a phenomenon of currency and currency, which has caused inflation in some countries by their monetary policy. According to the economic theory of Karl Marx, Irving Fisher, Friedman, inflation is caused by a continuous increase in the money supply. Design/methodology/approach The economic theories of Fisher, Friedman and an econometric model are applied to analyse the relationship between money supply and inflation. Besides, Vietnam’s and China’s research data are also collected in the period of 2012-2016. Findings It is found out that the continuous increase in the money supply causes inflation in the long-term, but the continuous increase in the money supply growth does not cause inflation in a short time, this was analyzed based on the theory of monetary quantity. Moreover, Chia’s and Vietnam’s correlations of the money supply growth and inflation are 99.1 per cent. These correlations are very close. Originality/value Research results show that money supply and inflation are closely related, and the money supply directly affects economic growth. Therefore, the government should have the relevant monetary policy to grow the economy and proposals to make monetary policy, control inflation levels and stimulate economic growth.

scholarly journals PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP INFLASI DAN SUKU BUNGA, SERTA TERHADAP INVESTASI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Karari Budi Prasasti ◽  
Edy Juwono Slamet
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Macro Variables

Introduction: Monetary policy is one of the main instruments of macroeconomic policy. The government with monetary policy is able toinfluence the level of economic growth, employment, and the rate of inflation. The one of main monetary policy is controlling the money supply. Money supply has a widespread impact on other macro variables. This study analyzes the effect of the money supply to variable inflationand interest rates, as well as the effects of inflation and interest rates to investment and economic growth in Indonesia. Methods: This study used analysis of TSLS (Two Stages Least Square). The data used in Times Series. Data for the period 1973 until 2012.Results: From the tests showed that there was a significant effect ofmoney supply to inflation and interest rates. Inflation and interest rateshas no effect on investment in Indonesia partially. While there was thesimultaneous effect of inflation and interest rates to Investment inIndonesia. The research showed that significantly the investmentinfluence economic growth in Indonesia.Conclusion and suggestion: Research indicates that the variable in the money supply directly or indirectly have an impact on economic growthin a country, thus appropriate monetary policy should be given such a broad impact in an economy.

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