scholarly journals Time Series Dynamics of Short Term Interest Rates in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Emel Siklar ◽  
Ilyas Siklar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Models ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Rate Functions ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Weekly Frequency

Interest rate functions as the cornerstone for the heavy majority of the financial models. The high volatility in interest rates in the financial crisis of 2008/09 and resulting increased uncertainty led many researchers to focus on modeling the dynamics of changes in short term interest rates. This study aims to analyze the volatility of short-term interest rate in Turkey in terms of overnight repo rate and to forecast this rate for the next six months by modelling this volatility. For this purpose, the ARCH family models like ARCH, GARCH and EGARCH were preferred to use since they are the most common methods in the literature. Using the weekly frequency data for the period of January 2002 - January 2021, the model that best describes the stochastic volatility in the data was found to be the GARCH (1.1) model. As a result of the fact that the in-sample estimates were found sufficient, the interest rate estimates for the next 6 months were realized.

scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Steadiness of expectation theory measured by swaption curve

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2.1) ◽  
pp. 6-26
Author(s):  
Antonio Ruben Santillan Pashma
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Short Term ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Expectation Theory ◽  
One Year ◽  
Premium Risk

The financial crisis that broke out in mid-2007 has spread in the existing financial system with great instability favoring the devaluation of currencies with the fall in market interest rates. This has caused potential investors to become more risk-averse and therefore, look for financial products, although lower profitability, also poses less risk. Following this line, it is the Fixed Income assets that have acquired greater prominence in these times of crisis.  This article highlights the strength of the expectation theory in different tranches, using EURIBOR rate to determine implicit forwards, and estimate the price of a one-year swap contract with 3 months of maturity,  and comparing in every moment with the real prices of swap as a benchmark. SWAP is the bigger derivative inside of the group of Fixed Income Assets.  After the quantitative analyst, it has been observed how the theory prevails of sceneries of low volatility but falls on sceneries when the volatility starts to increase. Introduction.  One of the basic assumptions about financial theory is talking about the expectations theory. Since the middle of the eighties, this theory has been used as the unbiased estimator to calculate the swap interest rate in the base of the spot bank interest rate. Aim. Quantitativa analyst of the steadiness of expectations theory in differents economical cycles, using the European Central bank as the source to get hold of the EURIBOR spot rates for 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and 12months from 2004 to 2016. Results. During the periods before the crisis 2007, the prices of the IRSWAP are almost adjusted between the market and what the financial theory says. The situation starts to change after the financial crisis when the volatility of the market starts to increase due to the instability of the banking sector and traders started with speculations strategies forgetting the aim of hedging, operating, new positions the majority in the short term. Conclusion. Whether for speculative reason or interventions actions of the monetary authority, the theory e “EXPECTATIONS THEORY”, it is not an efficient predictor with out using a premium risk, during the periods of high volatility.

A MULTIVARIATE REGIME SWITCHING APPROACH TO THE RELATION BETWEEN THE STOCK MARKET, THE INTEREST RATE AND OUTPUT

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (07) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANGELOS KANAS
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
The Us ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Relations ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper presents empirical evidence that the relation between stock returns, real activity and interest rates for the US is regime dependent. Fixed exchange rates, and interest rate targeting are associated with a regime in which the joint behavior of these three variables is characterized by low volatility, whilst monetary aggregates targeting is associated with a high volatility regime. Both the contemporaneous and the dynamic relations change across regimes. Regime-dependent dynamic effects arise from interest rates to real activity, from stock returns to real activity and interest rates, and from real activity to interest rates. Dynamic impulse responses also vary across regimes.

scholarly journals WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE RATES OF INTEREST AND PROFIT? AN EMPIRICAL NOTE FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY, 1869-2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (280) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Valle Baeza ◽  
Ivan Mendieta Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
United States Economy ◽  
Empirical Note ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Of Profit

The current paper aims to contribute to the study of the relation between the interest rate and the rate of profit by presenting an empirical analysis of the United States economy during the period of 1869 to 2009. The main findings rendered are: 1) the general rate of profit has set an upper limit for the real short-term and long-term interest rates; 2) the real long-term interest rate has undergone similar changes to those of the general rate of profit, whereas the real short-term interest rate has experienced movements opposite to the latter; and 3) evidence supports heterodox theories which stress that monetary policy affects the distribution of income through the modification of the rate of profit.

scholarly journals THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF DETERMINING THE INTEREST RATE IN THE TRANSFORMATION OF MONETARY POLICY

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (34) ◽  
Author(s):  
T.A GORBACHEVA ◽  
◽  
T.N BARKOVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The Interest Rate

Modern practice of macroeconomic management is based on the regulation of money supply through the management of interest rates, mainly short-term. Short-term interest rate management is a Central approach to implementing monetary policy in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Euro area. By changing the interest rates on operations of providing or absorbing liquidity, the national Central Bank has a significant impact on the level of interest rates for the same period in the money market. Consequently, the structure of all short-term rates changes for a longer period. Depending on a number of factors, including the exchange rate and the expected level of inflation, the structure of long-term interest rates also changes. Each change occurs with a certain time lag. Changes in interest rates affect the savings and investment decisions of households and firms. The purpose of this article is to study the transformation of the concept of interest and the development of interest rate theories. There are used methods of critical and comparative analysis, a systematic approach to the study of information. The theoretical aspects of determining the interest rate in the development of monetary policy are systematized. The main approaches to the development of interest rate policy in the framework of monetary regulation are studied. The obtained theoretical results can be used in the formation and adjustment of monetary policy.

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH PADA MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Risna Amalia Hamzah ◽  
Handri Handri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consumer Loans ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

This reseach aimed to evaluate the performance of monetary policy, toexamine and test the magnitude of the response rates on deposits and bank loans to the money market interest rate, and how fast adjustment of the interest rate of deposits and loans in response to changes in money market interest rates. The performance evaluation of the level of adjustment of interest rate pass-through is done by testing the coefficient of adjustment of the interest rate deposits and loans in response to changes in money market interest rates. The object of this reseach is reported in interest rates interbank money market (rPUAB) and bank interest rates (loans and deposits) of all commercial banks in Indonesia, the data used in the form of a row of monthly time (monthly time series) of the annual report of Bank Indonesia and SEKI ( Economic and Financial statistics Indonesia), in the period 2005-2016. The method used in this research is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for calculating the amount of long-term coefficients and Error Correction Model (ECM) -ARDL for calculating the amount of short-term coefficients. We find of the analysis indicate a change of monetary policy in the short term through the interest rate channel with its operational targets interest rates interbank money market (interbank) did not respond in full by the rates on deposits and loans in commercial banks in Indonesia, represented by the value of the degree of pass- through which less than 1 and there is a tendency that the longterm interest rates on loans and deposits experienced incomplete pass-through, then interest rates on consumer loans and deposits of 24 months has the speed of the slowest, which means consumer loans and deposits of 24 months in Indonesia unresponsive to changes in interbank rates. keywords: ARDL, ECM, Interest Rate pass-through, PUAB.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT TO DEMAND FOR PROPERTY CREDIT IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 308
Author(s):  
Ivan Pradana Putra ◽  
Wasiaturrahma Wasiaturrahma
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
The Interest Rate

An increase in credit, especially consumption credit, can trigger aggregate demand growth above potential output which causes the economy to heat up. This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, inflation, and gross domestic product (GDP), on the demand for property credit in Indonesia with the period January 2011 – December 2018. The results show that in the short term, the interest rate lag 1 and lag 2, inflation lag 1, and GDP significantly influence the demand for peoperty credit. While, in the long term, only the interest rates and GDP significantly influence to the demand for property credit.Keywords: Property Credit, Interest Rates, Inflation, GDP, ARDL JEL: C22, E51, G21 

Impacts of monetary instruments on overnight spread under the interest rate corridor framework: evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiu-Lan Chang ◽  
Ming Fang ◽  
Bin Hong ◽  
Kung-Cheng Ho
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Interest Rate Liberalization ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Financing Market

PurposeTo verify the effectiveness of the monetary policy, the impacts of monetary instruments on overnight spread under the interest rate corridor (IRC) are examined. The People's Bank of China (PBC) has operated the IRC since 2014. To understand the impacts of monetary instruments on overnight spread before and after the IRC framework, the complete samples are divided into two periods.Design/methodology/approachTo model the overnight spread, an exponential GARCH (EGARCH) approach is used which can examine the interbank market interest rates for monetary policy purposes. The overnight money market plays an important role in the implementation of monetary policy.FindingsChinese interest rate liberalization and the implementation of IRC affect the overnight spread in the short-term financing market. Before the implementation of the IRC, the key factor to affect the overnight spread is mainly affected by the PBC's monetary policy control on the liquidity supply side. After the implementation of IRC, the overnight spread can be the largest part explained by the liquidity demand side and the PBC's multiple monetary instruments have significant impacts on the reduction of overnight spread.Originality/valueThe overnight spread has recently been influenced by various factors that are directly or closely related to the monetary policy instruments and the interest rate policy of the PBC. Chinese interest rate liberalization and the implementation of interest rate corridor policy affect the overnight spread in the short-term financing market.

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA REVERSE REPO RATE DAN INFLASI TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM (Studi Empiris Pada Perusahaan Sektor Keuangan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2016-2018)

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandi Rendy Tumundo ◽  
Syaikhul Falah ◽  
Bill J.C Pangayow
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
T Test ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Simple Regression

This research aims to see the influence of the interest rate (reverse) repo rate directly and indirectly through inflation on the return of shares as well as interest rates (reverse) The repo rate to inflation and inflation on the return of shares, the financial sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in June year 2016 to December year 2018.Results showed that the interest rate (reverse) repo rate has no significant effect either directly and indirectly through inflation on return of shares, can be seen from the analysis of the line and calculation of Sobel test in get t count is-3.64 whereas T table is 2.0518 (significance 0.05) then, in the view of T count (-3.64) < T table (2.0518) meaning there is no while the interest rate (reverse) repo rate has a significant effect on inflation in the see of simple regression rates of reverse repo rate against inflation based on T-Test sig value of 0.05 < 0.05, and inflation also significantly and partial impact on the stock return with the value of the significance test T is 0.041. (0.041 < 0.05) and T count2.150 > 2.0518 t tables.

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