scholarly journals Gold Standard Agreement Model for Precipitation Forecast in Paraná Using Bootstrap

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 224
Author(s):  
Márcio Paulo de Oliveira ◽  
Franciele Buss Frescki Kestring ◽  
Jerry Adriani Johann ◽  
Miguel Angel Uribe-Opazo ◽  
Luciana Pagliosa Carvalho Guedes
Keyword(s):  
Gold Standard ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
The State ◽  
Standard Measure ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Knowledge Discovery In Databases ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Climate Studies

Demand for quality weather forecasts has increased in the last decades, leading national meteorological centers to develop new forecasting models. These models have parameterizations which can produce different predictions for the same location and agrometeorological variable. In the state of Paraná - Brazil, studies on rain forecasting are important for planning the soybean crop. The objective of this study was to compare, based on a gold-standard and using bootstrapping residuals, forecasts of total rainfall by virtual stations of the following centers: Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC), European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC). Gold-standard measurements were obtained from Meteorological System of Paraná (SIMEPAR) meteorological stations. The studied region was the state of Paraná, in October–March of the harvest years 2011/2012–2015/2016; forecast ranges were 24 and 240 hours. Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), focused on data mining techniques, was the chosen methodology. In the data preprocessing stage, spatial and temporal stratification, cleansing and grouping were performed. For the comparisons, 24 h and 240 h weather forecasts were used, being grouped in five-day and ten-day periods, respectively, and coefficients of agreement with the gold-standard measure were calculated. The choice of forecast center should consider the geographic location of a certain pluviometric station, and the temporal range of the forecast, according to its measure of agreement with the gold standard measure. Spatial variations of forecasting centers were identified within the mesoregions, which suggests the employment of different forecasting centers in a certain mesoregion.

scholarly journals Concordance Modeling With a Gold Standard for Variables From the Three-Parameter Gamma Distribution

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 284
Author(s):  
Márcio Paulo de Oliveira ◽  
Miguel Angel Uribe-Opazo ◽  
Manuel Galea ◽  
Jerry Adriani Johann
Keyword(s):  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Rainfall Forecast ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Range Interval

A way to compare two or more measurements for the same random variable can be achieved by using a negligible error reference measurement, which is called the gold standard, obtained by consolidated measurement methods. This paper presents a new methodology for comparing measurements in the presence of a gold standard with random variables from the multivariate three-parameter (shape, scale, and location) gamma distribution. The errors between gold standard measures and approximate measures have a gamma difference distribution with the same three parameters of the gamma distribution. The concordance measurements were obtained by mean of a coefficient, which measures the degree of agreement as a ratio between the variances of the gold standard and the errors. The developed methodology is illustrated with climatic data which is divided into four ranges. The measurements analyzed are rainfall forecasts of the following four national centers: Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC), European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC). The forecast range was 240 hours for the West mesoregion of Paraná – Brazil, and in the October 1–March 31 period of the 2010/2011 –2015/2016 harvest years. The period was selected because it is related to soybean crop development in the region and because several crop estimation models use rainfall forecast data in this period. The methodology applied spatially indicated the center to be selected in each geographical location according to each rainfall range interval. The gamma model fit well with the data and is an alternative to the normal one for modelling rainfall, in particular to estimate concordances between rainfall forecasts and the gold standard, which are used to improve the selection of rainfall forecast centers.

scholarly journals Weather Forecasting in Brazil: A Concise Historical Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valdo Da Silva Marques ◽  
Claudine Dereczynski
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Formation And Evolution ◽  
Climate Studies ◽  
And Training

The main objective of this article is to describe the factors and issues responsible for the evolution of the weather forecast in Brazil.This is done based on a historical review of the formation and evolution of the national meteorological services in the last 170 yearsand on the development of weather forecasting methods. Changes in the routines of weather forecasting services in two centenaryBrazilian institutions, the National Institute of Meteorology and the Brazilian Navy, since the creation of the first subjective forecaststo the present day, are highlighted. Information about the 14 undergraduate courses in Meteorology in Brazil is given, which supportthe technological development of this science, through scientific research and training of human resources. The introduction ofmeteorological radar in the 1970s, and its current networks, as well as the elaboration of the first numerical weather predictions (NWP)by the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos do Instituto Nacionalde Pesquisas Espaciais – CPTEC/INPE), in 1995, are also described. To complement, a survey is presented, showing the currentworking conditions of weather forecasters. The survey results reveal that 45% of the 102 meteorologists interviewed use the CzechRepublic Windy application to prepare their weather forecasts operationally and almost 60% use the Wyoming University website toobtain data from radiosondes launched in Brazil. It is important to highlight that, since the introduction of NWP by CPTEC/INPE, at theend of the 1990s, there has been a great advance in the field of weather forecasting. Moreover, observational networks have undergonea great expansion, with a significant increase in the number of weather stations in recent decades. Despite all the progress achieved,there is still a need for the integration of observational networks and databases of various institutions. Finally, the development ofapplications that meet the demand of young meteorologists in the operational centers is advisable.

Modelling Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) Over Nigeria from Ground-Based GNSS

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Bawa Swafiyudeen ◽  
Usman Ibrahim Sa'i ◽  
Bala Adamu ◽  
Abubakar Aliyu Zailani ◽  
Adamu Abubakar Musa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Precipitable Water Vapour ◽  
Water Vapour Content ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) over the past and present time has shown a great potential in the retrieval of the distribution of water vapour in the atmosphere.  Taking the advantage of the effect of the atmosphere on GNSS signal as they travel from the constellation of satellite to ground-based GNSS receivers such that information (water vapour content) about the atmosphere (mostly from the troposphere) can be derived is referred to as GNSS meteorology. This paper presents the spatiotemporal variability of Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) retrieved from ground–based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations over Nigeria for the years 2012 to 2013. In this paper, the GNSS data were processed using GAMIT (ver. 10.70). The GNSS PWV were grouped into daily and monthly averages; the variability of the daily and monthly GNSS PWV were compared and validated with the daily and monthly PWV from National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and monthly Rainfall data for the study years respectively. The results revealed that the spatiotemporal variability of PWV across Nigeria is a function of geographic location and seasons. The result shows that there is temporal correlation between GNSS PWV, NCEP PWV and rainfall events. The research also affirms that GNSS PWV could be used to improve weather forecasting/monitoring as well as climate monitoring.

scholarly journals Detection of Movement Events of Long-Track Speed Skating Using Wearable Inertial Sensors

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 3649
Author(s):  
Yosuke Tomita ◽  
Tomoki Iizuka ◽  
Koichi Irisawa ◽  
Shigeyuki Imura
Keyword(s):  
Gold Standard ◽  
Detection Method ◽  
Standard Measure ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Phase Identification ◽  
Foot Pressure ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Speed Skating ◽  
Stance Time ◽  
Integrated Detection

Inertial measurement units (IMUs) have been used increasingly to characterize long-track speed skating. We aimed to estimate the accuracy of IMUs for use in phase identification of long-track speed skating. Twelve healthy competitive athletes on a university long-track speed skating team participated in this study. Foot pressure, acceleration and knee joint angle were recorded during a 1000-m speed skating trial using the foot pressure system and IMUs. The foot contact and foot-off timing were identified using three methods (kinetic, acceleration and integrated detection) and the stance time was also calculated. Kinetic detection was used as the gold standard measure. Repeated analysis of variance, intra-class coefficients (ICCs) and Bland-Altman plots were used to estimate the extent of agreement between the detection methods. The stance time computed using the acceleration and integrated detection methods did not differ by more than 3.6% from the gold standard measure. The ICCs ranged between 0.657 and 0.927 for the acceleration detection method and 0.700 and 0.948 for the integrated detection method. The limits of agreement were between 90.1% and 96.1% for the average stance time. Phase identification using acceleration and integrated detection methods is valid for evaluating the kinematic characteristics during long-track speed skating.

scholarly journals Jan Sobieski’s latifundium and the soldiers (1652-1696)

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-69
Author(s):  
Magdalena Ujma
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Military Service ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
The State ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Economic Market ◽  
The People ◽  
Actual Strength ◽  
The Military

Abstract An analysis of the relationship between Jan III Sobieski and the people he distinguished shows that there were many mutual benefits. Social promotion was more difficult if the candidate for the office did not come from a senatorial family34. It can be assumed that, especially in the case of Atanazy Walenty Miączyński, the economic activity in the Sobieski family was conducive to career development. However, the function of the plenipotentiary was not a necessary condition for this. Not all the people distinguished by Jan III Sobieski achieved the same. More important offices were entrusted primarily to Marek Matczyński. Stanisław Zygmunt Druszkiewicz’s career was definitely less brilliant. Druszkiewicz joined the group of senators thanks to Jan III, and Matczyński and Szczuka received ministerial offices only during the reign of Sobieski. Jan III certainly counted on the ability to manage a team of people acquired by his comrades-in-arms in the course of his military service. However, their other advantage was also important - good orientation in political matters and exerting an appropriate influence on the nobility. The economic basis of the magnate’s power is an issue that requires more extensive research. This issue was primarily of interest to historians dealing with latifundia in the 18th century. This was mainly due to the source material. Latifundial documentation was kept much more regularly in the 18th century than before and is well-organized. The economic activity of the magnate was related not only to the internal organization of landed estates. It cannot be separated from the military, because the goal of the magnate’s life was politics and, very often, also war. Despite its autonomy, the latifundium wasn’t isolated. Despite the existence of the decentralization process of the state, the magnate families remained in contact with the weakening center of the state and influenced changes in its social structure. The actual strength of the magnate family was determined not only by the area of land goods, but above all by their profitability, which depended on several factors: geographic location and natural conditions, the current situation on the economic market, and the management method adopted by the magnate. In the 17th century, crisis phenomena, visible in demography, agricultural and crafts production, money and trade, intensified. In these realities, attempts by Jan III Sobieski to reconstruct the lands destroyed by the war and to introduce military rigor in the management center did not bring the expected results. Sobieski, however, introduced “new people” to the group of senators, who implemented his policy at the sejmiks and the Parliament, participated in military expeditions and managed his property.

Beyond Bias: Critical Analysis and Layered Reading of Mao-Era Sources

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 759-782
Author(s):  
Sigrid Schmalzer
Keyword(s):  
Gold Standard ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Source Material ◽  
The State ◽  
The Self ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Layered Approach ◽  
Flea Markets ◽  
Mao Era

Abstract Scholars of Mao-era history adopt a wide range of approaches to the selection and treatment of source material. Some scholars regard published sources as propaganda, and therefore as biased and unreliable. For many, archival sources are the gold standard; others question the reliability even of the archive and favor materials that escaped the filtering fingers of the state to be found in flea markets or garbage piles. Avoiding the false choice of either accepting sources as received wisdom or dismissing them as biased, the author argues that how scholars read their sources is more important than which they keep and which they throw away. She advocates for a layered approach that accounts for contexts of production and circulation, and further emphasizes the need to make this process of reading sources visible in our writing. A critical, layered reading of three unlikely sources demonstrates the myriad possibilities for analysis that combines the empirical, the discursive, and the self-reflexive.

scholarly journals Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 2355-2377 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rautenhaus ◽  
C. M. Grams ◽  
A. Schäfler ◽  
R. Westermann
Keyword(s):  
System Integration ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Uncertainty Visualization ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Weather Forecasts

Abstract. We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

scholarly journals Altruism and Malevolence: Opposite Ends of a Single Dimension

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H.B. McAuliffe ◽  
Michael E. McCullough ◽  
Debra Lieberman
Keyword(s):  
Gold Standard ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Standard Measure ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Sexual History ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Single Dimension ◽  
Personality Correlates ◽  
History Of

Although the possibility sounds paradoxical, several studies have found that positive and negative regard for others’ welfare are orthogonal and have unique personality correlates. We tested whether this result is an artefact of treating the oft-used self-report altruism scale (SRA) as unidimensional. In a pilot study of students and community-dwelling adults (N = 276, 190 women; Meanage = 21.67, SDage = 7.49), we factor analyzed the SRA. We confirmed its factor structure in a study of Mechanical Turk workers (N = 814; 410 women; Meanage = 36.6, SDage = 11.19). Using an S-1 bifactor model, we created a “gold standard” general altruism factor composed of idiographic, behavioral, and questionnaire measures. We used structural equation modeling to assess how the SRA and the gold standard measure relate to gender, sexual history, and malevolence. The SRA contained three factors across both studies. The factor that accounted for the most variance positively correlated with sadism and psychopathy, a history of uncommitted sex, and being male. The other two SRA factors and the gold standard measure generally evinced the opposite associations. In conclusion, regard for other’s welfare is likely a single dimension of personality with a unified nomological network.

Statistical Characterization of Zonal and Meridional Ocean Wind Stress

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 1353-1372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah T. Gille
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Frequency Spectra ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Meridional Winds ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Four years of ocean vector wind data are used to evaluate statistics of wind stress over the ocean. Raw swath wind stresses derived from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) are compared with five different global gridded wind products, including products based on scatterometer observations, meteorological analysis winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and reanalysis winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Buoy winds from a limited number of sites in the Pacific Ocean are also considered. Probability density functions (PDFs) computed for latitudinal bands show that mean wind stresses for the six global products are largely in agreement, while variances differ substantially, by a factor of 2 or more, with swath wind stresses indicating highest variances for meridional winds and for zonal winds outside the Tropics. Higher moments of the PDFs also differ. Kurtoses are large for all wind products, implying that PDFs are not Gaussian. None of the available gridded products fully captures the range of extreme wind events seen in the raw swath data. Frequency spectra for the five gridded products agree with frequency spectra from swath data at low frequencies, but spectral slopes differ at higher frequencies, particularly for frequencies greater than 100 cycles per year (cpy), which are poorly resolved by a single scatterometer. In the frequency range between 10 and 90 cpy that is resolved by the scatterometer, spectra derived from swath data are flatter than spectra from gridded products and are judged to be flatter than ω−2/3 at all latitudes.

scholarly journals Validation of the Aura High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder geopotential heights

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1001-1025
Author(s):  
L. L. Smith ◽  
J. C. Gille
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
System Model ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Atmospheric Research ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
High Bias ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Data Screening

Abstract. Global satellite observations from the EOS Aura spacecraft's High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) of temperature and geopotential height (GPH) are discussed. The accuracy, resolution and precision of the HIRDLS version 7 algorithms are assessed and data screening recommendations are made. Comparisons with GPH from observations, reanalyses and models including European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis, Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) version 5, and EOS Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) illustrate the HIRDLS GPH have a precision ranging from 2 m to 30 m and an accuracy of ±100 m. Comparisons indicate HIRDLS GPH may have a slight low bias in the tropics and a slight high bias at high latitudes. Geostrophic winds computed with HIRDLS GPH qualitatively agree with winds from other data sources including ERA-Interim, NCEP and GEOS-5.

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