scholarly journals Empirical Estimates for how Changes in China’s Foreign Reserves Are Hurting Chinese Exports and Helping US Exports

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Jonathan E. Leightner
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Complex Structural

This paper estimates the change in China's exports and the change in US exports due to a one dollar increase in China's foreign reserves. The statistical technique used produces reduced form estimates that capture the influence of omitted variables without having to construct and estimate complex structural models. I find that in August 2000 China's accumulation of 621 million dollars of foreign reserves is correlated with China's exports increasing by 151 million and the US's exports falling by 628 million dollars. In contrast, in November 2016, China spending 69 billion dollars of its foreign reserves supporting the value of the yuan is correlated with China's exports falling by 4.77 billion and the US's exports rising by 2.42 billion. Donald Trump's accusation that China is suppressing the yuan exchange rate to help Chinese exports at the expense of US exports did not fit the facts between August 11, 2015 and December 31, 2016.

scholarly journals Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments*

2017 ◽  
Vol 132 (4) ◽  
pp. 1553-1592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaiah Andrews ◽  
Matthew Gentzkow ◽  
Jesse M. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Natural Extension ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Local Measure ◽  
Error Terms ◽  
Complex Structural ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Way

Abstract We propose a local measure of the relationship between parameter estimates and the moments of the data they depend on. Our measure can be computed at negligible cost even for complex structural models. We argue that reporting this measure can increase the transparency of structural estimates, making it easier for readers to predict the way violations of identifying assumptions would affect the results. When the key assumptions are orthogonality between error terms and excluded instruments, we show that our measure provides a natural extension of the omitted variables bias formula for nonlinear models. We illustrate with applications to published articles in several fields of economics.

scholarly journals Superelement Verification in Complex Structural Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 369-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Dupont ◽  
E. Pillet ◽  
S. Cogan
Keyword(s):  
Approximate Solution ◽  
Physical Model ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Response Prediction ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Structural Assembly ◽  
Complex Structural ◽  
Natural Result ◽  
Definition Of

The objective of this article is to propose decision indicators to guide the analyst in the optimal definition of an ensemble of superelements in a complex structural assembly. These indicators are constructed based on comparisons between the unreduced physical model and the approximate solution provided by a nominally reduced superelement model. First, the low contribution substructure slave modes are filtered. Then, the minimum dynamical residual expansion is used to localize the superelements which are the most responsible for the response prediction errors. Moreover, it is shown that static residual vectors, which are a natural result of these calculations, can be included to represent the contribution of important truncated slave modes and consequently correct the deficient superelements. The proposed methodology is illustrated on a subassembly of an aeroengine model.

Russia's central bank will anticipate sanction risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

Significance Because the risk of sanctions was priced into Russian bond prices and the ruble exchange rate, the market reaction to the measures announced on April 15 was muted. US investors can still buy and hold OFZs and Eurobonds on the secondary market, but the prospect of further restrictions are possible. Impacts Sanctions risks will weigh down Russia's sovereign credit rating for the foreseeable future. Diminished liquidity in the bond market will make it difficult to price new Russian corporate debt, particularly for new issuers. Strong economic fundamentals and high foreign reserves will encourage foreign investors to return once uncertainty subsides.

The Identification Zoo: Meanings of Identification in Econometrics

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 835-903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Lewbel
Keyword(s):  
Structural Models ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Weak Identification ◽  
Set Identification ◽  
New Framework

Over two dozen different terms for identification appear in the econometrics literature, including set identification, causal identification, local identification, generic identification, weak identification, identification at infinity, and many more. This survey: (i) gives a new framework unifying existing definitions of point identification; (ii) summarizes and compares the zooful of different terms associated with identification that appear in the literature; and (iii) discusses concepts closely related to identification, such as normalizations and the differences in identification between structural models and causal, reduced form models. ( JEL C01, C20, C50)

Some Common Pitfalls in Causal Analysis of Categorical Data

1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 461-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay Magidson
Keyword(s):  
Categorical Data ◽  
Causal Analysis ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Causal Interpretation ◽  
Linear Modeling ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Interaction Detection ◽  
Biasing Effects ◽  
Log Linear

Examples of some common pitfalls in the analysis of categorical data are discussed in the context of causal interpretation of the results. Though no statistical technique can replace theory, the author shows that log-linear modeling and chi square automatic interaction detection can provide researchers with powerful tools for gaining valuable causal insights into their data. Examples include the biasing effects of omitted variables, omitted interactions, improper contrast coding, and misspecification of the structure of an hypothesized interaction.

The persistence of moderate inflation in the czech republic and the czk crisis of may 1997

1999 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef C. Brada ◽  
Ali M. Kutan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Speculative Attack ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper deals with the exchange rate policy being implemented in combination with the mix of monetary and fiscal measures prior to the speculative attack on the CZK in 1997. The fixed nominal exchange rate may have been retained for too long and the monetary and fiscal policies were inappropriate. It explains the relation between Czech inflation, exchange rate and macroeconomic policies until the crisis of May 1997. <P>While the Czech Republic weathered its currency crisis much better than did most other emerging economies, with the worst damage being a USD 2 billion loss of foreign reserves, the crisis failed to resolve all of the fundamental problems. It gives also some explanations for the persistence of inflation at a level around 10 % until mid-1998.

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