scholarly journals Semi-quantitative precipitation forecasts for Kosi/Mahananda catchment by synoptic analogue method

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-186
Author(s):  
K. M. SINGH ◽  
M. C. PRASAD ◽  
G. PRASAD ◽  
R. PRASAD ◽  
M. K. JHA

An attempt has been made to issue semi-quantitative precipitation forecasts for Kosi/Mahananda catchment by synoptic analogue method. Based upon 22 years of data (1982 - 2003) the study reveals that it is possible to issue semi­-quantitative forecasts with confidence. Local topography of the catchments and its steep gradient from Bhim nagar to Chatra / Brahkshetra in Kosi and hills in Darjeeling are favourable regions where moist air masses of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea during South West Monsoon in lower troposphere converge and trough at 500 hPa especially diffluent in rear creates divergence and moist air mass is pulled up resulting in heavy / very heavy rainfall in sub montane districts of Bihar and Nepal Himalaya in addition to orographic effects. This gives birth to severe floods and makes the life of densely populated districts of  Pumea / Katihar / Saharsa / Kisanganj / Madhepura miserable and badly affects the economy of the region.

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-348
Author(s):  
K. M. SINGH ◽  
M. C. PRASAD ◽  
G. PRASAD

An attempt has been made to issue semi-quantitative precipitation forecasts for Baghmati/Adhwara Group of rivers/Kamala-Balan catchments based upon 22 years data (1982-2003). The study reveals that it is possible to issue semi-quantitative precipitation forecast with confidence. Local topography and its steep gradient on Indo-Nepal Border are main factors that give birth to severe floods during south west monsoon and pose problems to Darbhanga City.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pijush Basak

The South West Monsoon rainfall data of the meteorological subdivision number 6 of India enclosing Gangetic West Bengal is shown to be decomposable into eight empirical time series, namely Intrinsic Mode Functions. This leads one to identify the first empirical mode as a nonlinear part and the remaining modes as the linear part of the data. The nonlinear part is modeled with the technique Neural Network based Generalized Regression Neural Network model technique whereas the linear part is sensibly modeled through simple regression method. The different Intrinsic modes as verified are well connected with relevant atmospheric features, namely, El Nino, Quasi-biennial Oscillation, Sunspot cycle and others. It is observed that the proposed model explains around 75% of inter annual variability (IAV) of the rainfall series of Gangetic West Bengal. The model is efficient in statistical forecasting of South West Monsoon rainfall in the region as verified from independent part of the real data. The statistical forecasts of SWM rainfall for GWB for the years 2012 and 2013 are108.71 cm and 126.21 cm respectively, where as corresponding to the actual rainfall of 93.19 cm 115.20 cm respectively which are within one standard deviation of mean rainfall.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Bozem ◽  
Peter Hoor ◽  
Daniel Kunkel ◽  
Franziska Köllner ◽  
Johannes Schneider ◽  
...  

Abstract. The springtime composition of the Arctic lower troposphere is to a large extent controlled by transport of mid-latitude air masses into the Arctic, whereas during the summer precipitation and natural sources play the most important role. Within the Arctic region, there exists a transport barrier, known as the polar dome, which results from sloping isentropes. The polar dome, which varies in space and time, exhibits a strong influence on the transport of air masses from mid-latitudes, enhancing it during winter and inhibiting it during summer. Furthermore, a definition for the location of the polar dome boundary itself is quite sparse in the literature. We analyzed aircraft based trace gas measurements in the Arctic during two NETCARE airborne field camapigns (July 2014 and April 2015) with the Polar 6 aircraft of Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany, covering an area from Spitsbergen to Alaska (134° W to 17° W and 68° N to 83° N). For the spring (April 2015) and summer (July 2014) season we analyzed transport regimes of mid-latitude air masses travelling to the high Arctic based on CO and CO2 measurements as well as kinematic 10-day back trajectories. The dynamical isolation of the high Arctic lower troposphere caused by the transport barrier leads to gradients of chemical tracers reflecting different local chemical life times and sources and sinks. Particularly gradients of CO and CO2 allowed for a trace gas based definition of the polar dome boundary for the two measurement periods with pronounced seasonal differences. For both campaigns a transition zone rather than a sharp boundary was derived. For July 2014 the polar dome boundary was determined to be 73.5° N latitude and 299–303.5 K potential temperature, respectively. During April 2015 the polar dome boundary was on average located at 66–68.5° N and 283.5–287.5 K. Tracer-tracer scatter plots and probability density functions confirm different air mass properties inside and outside of the polar dome for the July 2014 and April 2015 data set. Using the tracer derived polar dome boundaries the analysis of aerosol data indicates secondary aerosol formation events in the clean summertime polar dome. Synoptic-scale weather systems frequently disturb this transport barrier and foster exchange between air masses from midlatitudes and polar regions. During the second phase of the NETCARE 2014 measurements a pronounced low pressure system south of Resolute Bay brought inflow from southern latitudes that pushed the polar dome northward and significantly affected trace gas mixing ratios in the measurement region. Mean CO mixing ratios increased from 77.9 ± 2.5 ppbv to 84.9 ± 4.7 ppbv from the first period to the second period. At the same time CO2 mixing ratios significantly dropped from 398.16 ± 1.01 ppmv to 393.81 ± 2.25 ppmv. We further analysed processes controlling the recent transport history of air masses within and outside the polar dome. Air masses within the spring time polar dome mainly experienced diabatic cooling while travelling over cold surfaces. In contrast air masses in the summertime polar dome were diabatically heated due to insolation. During both seasons air masses outside the polar dome slowly descended into the Arctic lower troposphere from above caused by radiative cooling. The ascent to the middle and upper troposphere mainly took place outside the Arctic, followed by a northward motion. Our results demonstrate the successful application of a tracer based diagnostic to determine the location of the polar dome boundary.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asokan Laila Achu ◽  
Girish Gopinath

<p>The Western Ghats (WG), an elevated passive continental margin along the southwestern coast of India, is the most widely populated biodiversity hot spot in the world. Monsoon climate is prevalent throughout the length of the Western Ghats. The WG region is prone to the occurrence of various hydro-climatic disasters such as extreme rainfall-driven floods and landslides. During the past 100 years, landslides and floods caused by extreme rainfall events in the WG have occurred in 1924 and 1979; but the most disastrous event, in terms of area of impact, loss of life and economic impact, occurred in August 2018. Generally, the south-west monsoon (Indian summer monsoon) occurs in the first week of June and extends up to September and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted above-normal rainfall of 13% during the month of August 2018. But the State received an excess of 96% during the period from 1st to 30th August 2018, and 33% during the entire monsoon period till the end of August. The unprecedented heavy rains, storms, floods and associated thousands of landslides have caused exorbitant losses including 400 life losses, over 2.20 lakh people were displaced, and 20000 homes and 80 dams were damaged or destructed. This study aimed to elucidate the reasons behind the thousands of landslides caused in WG using observed and field evidences. Changes in south-west monsoon pattern and rainfall intensity played a vital role in the occurrence of landslides in WG. Further, the extensive causalities are the result of anthropogenic disturbances including landscape alterations and improper landuse practices in the hilly tracks of WG. The major causative factors for series of landslides in various segments of WG is due to hindrance of lower order streams/springs, vertical cutting, intensive quarrying, unscientific rain pits & man-made structures together with erratic rainfall triggered major and minor landslides in various segments of WG. The present investigation concludes that a scientific landuse policy and geoscientific awareness is essential to mitigate the environment.</p>


Nature ◽  
1922 ◽  
Vol 109 (2726) ◽  
pp. 109-112
Author(s):  
L. C. W. BONACINA

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 15911-15954 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tressol ◽  
C. Ordonez ◽  
R. Zbinden ◽  
V. Thouret ◽  
C. Mari ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study presents an analysis of both MOZAIC profiles above Frankfurt and Lagrangian dispersion model simulations for the 2003 European heat wave. The comparison of MOZAIC measurements in summer 2003 with the 11-year MOZAIC climatology reflects strong temperature anomalies (exceeding 4°C) throughout the lower troposphere. Higher positive anomalies of temperature and negative anomalies of both wind speed and relative humidity are found for the period defined here as the heat wave (2–14 August 2003), compared to the periods before (16–31 July 2003) and after (16–31 August 2003) the heat wave. In addition, Lagrangian model simulations in backward mode indicate the suppressed long-range transport in the mid- to lower troposphere and the enhanced southern origin of air masses for all tropospheric levels during the heat wave. Ozone and carbon monoxide also present strong anomalies (both ~ +40 ppbv) during the heat wave, with a maximum vertical extension reaching 6 km altitude around 11 August 2003. Pollution in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is enhanced during the day, with ozone mixing ratios two times higher than climatological values. This is due to a combination of factors, such as high temperature and radiation, stagnation of air masses and weak dry deposition, which favour the accumulation of ozone precursors and the build-up of ozone. A negligible role of a stratospheric-origin ozone tracer has been found for the lower troposphere in this study. From 29 July to 15 August 2003 forest fires burned around 0.3×106 ha) in Portugal and added to atmospheric pollution in Europe. Layers with enhanced CO and NOy mixing ratios, probably advected from Portugal, were crossed by the MOZAIC aircraft in the free troposphere over Frankfurt. A series of forward and backward Lagrangian model simulations have been performed to investigate the origin of these anomalies. During the whole heat wave, European anthropogenic emissions present the strongest contribution to the measured CO levels in the lower troposphere (near 30%). This source is followed by Portuguese forest fires which affect the lower troposphere after 6 August 2003 and even the PBL around 10 August 2003. The averaged biomass burning contribution reaches 35% during the affected period. Anthropogenic CO of North American origin only marginally influences CO levels over Europe during that period.


1997 ◽  
Vol 24 (14) ◽  
pp. 1763-1766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Körtzinger ◽  
Jan C. Duinker ◽  
Ludger Mintrop

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (23) ◽  
pp. 15049-15071
Author(s):  
Heiko Bozem ◽  
Peter Hoor ◽  
Daniel Kunkel ◽  
Franziska Köllner ◽  
Johannes Schneider ◽  
...  

Abstract. The springtime composition of the Arctic lower troposphere is to a large extent controlled by the transport of midlatitude air masses into the Arctic. In contrast, precipitation and natural sources play the most important role during summer. Within the Arctic region sloping isentropes create a barrier to horizontal transport, known as the polar dome. The polar dome varies in space and time and exhibits a strong influence on the transport of air masses from midlatitudes, enhancing transport during winter and inhibiting transport during summer. We analyzed aircraft-based trace gas measurements in the Arctic from two NETCARE airborne field campaigns (July 2014 and April 2015) with the Alfred Wegener Institute Polar 6 aircraft, covering an area from Spitsbergen to Alaska (134 to 17∘ W and 68 to 83∘ N). Using these data we characterized the transport regimes of midlatitude air masses traveling to the high Arctic based on CO and CO2 measurements as well as kinematic 10 d back trajectories. We found that dynamical isolation of the high Arctic lower troposphere leads to gradients of chemical tracers reflecting different local chemical lifetimes, sources, and sinks. In particular, gradients of CO and CO2 allowed for a trace-gas-based definition of the polar dome boundary for the two measurement periods, which showed pronounced seasonal differences. Rather than a sharp boundary, we derived a transition zone from both campaigns. In July 2014 the polar dome boundary was at 73.5∘ N latitude and 299–303.5 K potential temperature. During April 2015 the polar dome boundary was on average located at 66–68.5∘ N and 283.5–287.5 K. Tracer–tracer scatter plots confirm different air mass properties inside and outside the polar dome in both spring and summer. Further, we explored the processes controlling the recent transport history of air masses within and outside the polar dome. Air masses within the springtime polar dome mainly experienced diabatic cooling while traveling over cold surfaces. In contrast, air masses in the summertime polar dome were diabatically heated due to insolation. During both seasons air masses outside the polar dome slowly descended into the Arctic lower troposphere from above through radiative cooling. Ascent to the middle and upper troposphere mainly took place outside the Arctic, followed by a northward motion. Air masses inside and outside the polar dome were also distinguished by different chemical compositions of both trace gases and aerosol particles. We found that the fraction of amine-containing particles, originating from Arctic marine biogenic sources, is enhanced inside the polar dome. In contrast, concentrations of refractory black carbon are highest outside the polar dome, indicating remote pollution sources. Synoptic-scale weather systems frequently disturb the transport barrier formed by the polar dome and foster exchange between air masses from midlatitudes and polar regions. During the second phase of the NETCARE 2014 measurements a pronounced low-pressure system south of Resolute Bay brought inflow from southern latitudes, which pushed the polar dome northward and significantly affected trace gas mixing ratios in the measurement region. Mean CO mixing ratios increased from 77.9±2.5 to 84.9±4.7 ppbv between these two regimes. At the same time CO2 mixing ratios significantly decreased from 398.16 ± 1.01 to 393.81 ± 2.25 ppmv. Our results demonstrate the utility of applying a tracer-based diagnostic to determine the polar dome boundary for interpreting observations of atmospheric composition in the context of transport history.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 7073-7103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoichi Inai ◽  
Ryo Fujita ◽  
Toshinobu Machida ◽  
Hidekazu Matsueda ◽  
Yousuke Sawa ◽  
...  

Abstract. To investigate the seasonal characteristics of trace gas distributions in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (ExUTLS) as well as stratosphere–troposphere exchange processes, origin fractions of air masses originating in the stratosphere, tropical troposphere, midlatitude lower troposphere (LT), and high-latitude LT in the ExUTLS are estimated using 10-year backward trajectories calculated with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data as the meteorological input. Time series of trace gases obtained from ground-based and airborne observations are incorporated into the trajectories, thus reconstructing spatiotemporal distributions of trace gases in the ExUTLS. The reconstructed tracer distributions are analyzed with the origin fractions and the stratospheric age of air (AoA) estimated using the backward trajectories. The reconstructed distributions of SF6 and CO2 in the ExUTLS are linearly correlated with those of AoA because of their chemically passive behavior and quasi-stable increasing trends in the troposphere. Distributions of CH4, N2O, and CO are controlled primarily by chemical decay along the transport path from the source region via the stratosphere and subsequent mixing of such stratospheric air masses with tropospheric air masses in the ExUTLS.


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