Protests, a Destabilizing Factor of Economic Growth in Arab Republic of Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karim Naama ◽  
◽  
◽  

With the start of the revolution of January 2011 until 2013, many indicators and economic research confirms the entry of the Egyptian economy to a stage of deterioration. With the military council headed by Marshal Tantawi taking over the country, the growth of the economy fell remarkably to less than 2% Unemployment reached over 10%, and the fiscal deficit increased to 8.6% of GDP, which was accompanied by inflation of 11%. That one of the biggest economic mistakes committed by the government system is to keep the exchange rate of the pound fixed, which led to the depletion of about $ 20 billion of cash reserves between December 2010 to May 2012, which has negatively affected the rating of Egyptian Institutions International Finance. After that, Egypt’s economic situation during the rule of Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, which can be described as lacking in experience in the management of the state. The political challenges and obstacles, as well as the absence of any economic plan, contributed to the increasing complexity of the economic situation of Egypt, Resulting in a rise in the unemployment rate to 12.5%. The Brotherhood’s government failed to provide resources to cope with the crisis, relying only on the collection of aid and subsidies from some regimes in the Middle East, resulting in worsening conditions until the army intervened and President Mohamed Morsi was removed on 3 July 2013. With the arrival of interim President Adli Mansour to power in August 2013, we note that the Egyptian economy witnessed a slight improvement, which was reflected according to the published report that Egypt received about 12 billion dollars in foreign aid from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, However, the economic growth rate remained below 2% as unemployment and inflation continued to spread.

2020 ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Vyacheslav Belokrenitsky ◽  

The article analyzes the situation in Pakistan’s economy under the new government of the country, formed after the parliamentary elections in July 2018. It is observed that in 2018–2020 the rates of economic growth have slowed considerably. The government has faced problems of acute fiscal and current account deficits and was forced to agree to large doses of foreign financial assistance. The economic situation by the beginning of 2020 has somewhat improved, but the dependence of the economy on external factors remains, causing risks which do not allow to argue that the crisis and stagnation would be overcome in the nearest future.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-86
Author(s):  
Syed Yusuf Saadat

This study investigates whether government borrowing can be likened to a Ponzi scheme which will allow the government to roll-over its debt perpetually. The results show that, on the basis of the condition of maintaining real economic growth rate above and beyond the real interest rate on government debt, it will not be possible to sustain a perpetual Ponzi scheme of all four types of National Savings Certificates in Bangladesh. The government’s debt may be rolled over perpetually for two types of National Savings Certificates, following the condition outlined in Ball, et al. (1998), or for three types of National Savings Certificates following the condition outlined in Mehrotra (2017). 


2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Qomariah Lahamid ◽  
Julina Julina

This study aims to identify barriers and prospects for Small Micro Enterprises (SMEs) based on sex in the District of Singingi. The data collected by observation, interview and questionnaire. The result showed that the owners of SMEs in Singingi Regency dominated by men but not apart from the contribution of the woman (wife). The major obstacle is the lack of capital to develop the business. Other barriers such as availability of raw materials, equipment, technology, and skills possessed by SMEs. Although there are some obstacles, but they still want to maintain the business as their main motivation is to increase family income. Future prospects of SMEs will be better when it get serious attention from the government, especially when viewed from the economic growth rate reached 6 percent in that year provide the opportunity for absorption of industrial goods produced by SMEs.


Author(s):  
Lee J. Alston ◽  
Marcus André Melo ◽  
Bernardo Mueller ◽  
Carlos Pereira

This chapter discusses the military government and the belief in “developmentalism” which motivated the institutions put in place by the regime. Developmentalism rested on top-down technocratic planning and was a coalition between the military and the business community, both domestic and foreign. Import substitution policies along with state-led industrialization brought economic growth in the late 1960s and into the mid-1970s. But, the Brazilian miracle of the late 1960s and early 1970s began to sputter out, and, moreover, political rights became more constrained. The years of censorship and a closed political system sowed the seeds for a more open political order. Above all, the failure of the expansionist strategy of growth through import substitution accompanied by inflation and external debt became self-evident. Citizens also began to blame the government for not reducing economic and social inequality. The dominant belief that economic growth should precede social inclusion started losing political support.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (312) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Federico Novelo Urdanivia ◽  
Nancy Muller Durán

<p>En este artículo analizamos la relación entre el crecimiento económico, el déficit fiscal y la inflación en México, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomía del Banco de México respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endógeno al crecimiento económico, entonces el déficit fiscal no es necesariamente la única causa de la inflación. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aún sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relación negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflación. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento económico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflación.</p><p> </p><p align="center">FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP?</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><strong></strong></p><p>This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de México. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.</p>


2020 ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Vyacheslav Belokrenitsky ◽  

The article analyzes the situation in Pakistan’s economy under the new government of the country, formed after the parliamentary elections in July 2018. It is observed that in 2018–2020 the rates of economic growth have slowed considerably. The government has faced problems of acute fiscal and current account deficits and was forced to agree to large doses of foreign financial assistance. The economic situation by the beginning of 2020 has somewhat improved, but the dependence of the economy on external factors remains, causing risks which do not allow to argue that the crisis and stagnation would be overcome in the nearest future.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-197
Author(s):  
Carole Ibrahim

Lebanese public debt has been accumulating since 1990, after the end of the civil war. Recently, concerns about the ability of the government to keep servicing its debt have emerged, particularly because the debt-to-GDP ratio reached almost 147% at the end of 2018. This study aims to examine whether a cointegrating relationship exists among primary fiscal performance, real economic growth, and public debt in Lebanon using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model between 2000 and 2018. The ARDL results suggest the non-existence of a cointegrating relationship and hence the unsustainability of the Lebanese public debt. The evidence of the short-run estimation indicates that better primary fiscal performance and a higher economic growth rate reduce Lebanese public debt in the short run. This study proposes that immediate reforms that increase the primary fiscal surplus and attract investors are crucial to prevent a debt crisis in the country.


Author(s):  
Muhammad Teguh ◽  
Abdul Bashir

The high economic growth is very important for Indonesia to accelerate the development process at this period. Although, the growth rate was reached at 5.17 % in 2018 is likely high enough, some domestic economists even point out, it really can be raised to a higher level. This research tries to investigate and formulate again Indonesia’s economic growth rate in 2018 and forecast it for 2019. By doing analysis recent real GDP data by industrial origin and by type of expenditures, and also consider all of the available potential economic resources, this research shows that Indonesia’s economic growth rate could stand at 6.03 % in 2018 and also at 6.03 % in 2019. Anyway, the government need a good economic plan and consistently performing appropriate strategies which are suited to targets in order to have rapid and stable economic growth rate


Author(s):  
A. Korotaev ◽  
L. Isaev

The authors analyze roots, causes and implications of both major political events that took place in Egypt in the last three years, namely the Tahrir Revolution of 2011 and what they call the Counterrevolution of 2013. Focus of the article is on the role of the military and the Islamists. The young educated democrats of middle class who initiated the revolution in 2011 under the slogans of combatting autocratic and corrupt government were joined by the poverty-stricken population of Cairo, by the desolate and unemployed and – what was especially important – by the Muslim Brotherhood. This combination of forces proved too strong for the army and government, Mubarak had to resign. But the urban poor who played a decisive role in the victory of the revolution had always been under a very strong influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, so it was inevitable that free and fair elections would bring the Islamists to power. Moursi became President. The Islamists, however, made a number of grave mistakes while in power, and the old elites, both economic and military/bureaucratic, did their best to sabotage the government policy. At last the army (supported by the Egyptian economic elites) came on top, so both the Muslim Brothers and the young secular democrats have lost.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p69
Author(s):  
Louis Sevitenyi Nkwatoh ◽  
Hiikyaa A. Nathaniel

Many studies in conformity with theoretical underpinnings have shown that insecurity exerts a negative effect on economic growth. This study investigated the effect of insecurity on economic growth in Nigeria. The vector autoregressive model was employed using quarterly data from 2009Q1 to 2016Q4. The major findings show that economic growth and investment activities tend to increase during periods of insecurity. Also the rate of unemployment reduced during periods of insecurity. This implies that insecurity only threatens economic activities with no negative effect on the entire economy as conjectured by various economic theories. Thus, to continuously sustain the Nigeria’s economic growth rate, the government needs to protect domestic and foreign investments by stepping up its national security.


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