scholarly journals The Impact of Ageing Population on Economic Growth in South Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
D.K.Y. Abeywardhana

The share of working age population has declined all over the world. It is forecasted that this will continue for the coming years in all countries in South Asia. Low growth in working age population in South Asia will be effecting negatively for the economic growth. This paper studies whether the South Asia 2050 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on economic growth differs between South Asian countries. The results show that degreasing working age population is the main challenge the South Asian region faces. Further it shows that growth in GDP mainly depend on the demographic change. Population who contributed the economic development become maturing and dependents of their children. The consumption of the ageing population is very high as of higher spending on healthcare facilities. This effect badly on the economic growth in the region and cause lots of challenges to the nations.

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2311-2331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiling Huo ◽  
W. Richard Peltier

AbstractThe extreme concentration of population over South Asia makes it critical to accurately understand the global warming impact on the South Asian monsoon (SAM), but the complex orography of the region makes future projections of monsoon intensity technically challenging. Here we describe a series of climate projections constructed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for South Asia to dynamically downscale a global warming simulation constructed using the Community Earth System Model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A physics-based miniensemble is employed to investigate the sensitivity of the projected change of the SAM to the implementation of different parameterization schemes in WRF. We analyze not only the changes in mean seasonal precipitation but also the impact of the warming process on precipitation extremes. All projections are characterized by a consistent increase in average monsoon precipitation and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution (more than a 50% decrease in the return periods of 50-yr extreme rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century). Further analysis based on one of the WRF physics ensemble members shows that both the average rainfall intensity changes and the extreme precipitation increases are projected to be slightly larger than expectations based upon the Clausius–Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% °C−1 of surface warming in most parts of India. This further increase can be primarily explained by the fact that the surface warming is projected to be smaller than the warming in the midtroposphere, where a significant portion of rain originates, and dynamical effects play only a secondary role.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hem C. Basnet ◽  
Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou ◽  
Kamal Upadhyaya

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether remittances induce inflation in South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach This study uses panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group techniques covering from 1975 to 2017 to estimate the long-run and the short-run effect of remittances on inflation. Findings The estimated results suggest that the inflationary impact of remittances in South Asia depends on the time length. The inflow tends to lower inflation in the short run, whereas it increases in the long run. The findings highlight the regional peculiarity in the impact of remittances on the price level. The results are statistically significant and are confirmed by the Mean Group estimation as well. Originality/value Most past studies investigating the nexus between remittances and inflation in the South Asian context examine either these countries individually or include them all in a pool of big cross-sections. This study contributes to the literature by addressing this void. The South Asian countries should not generalize the earlier findings on the link between remittance inflows and inflation, as the short-run effect is different from the long run. Thus, these countries would be better off designing long-run policies that are different from the short run.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-216
Author(s):  
Piyadasa Edirisuriya

Since the 1980s, South Asian countries have been implementing financial market deregulation policies continuously. Although the process of deregulations has been slow, many countries in the region are heading toward a more integrated market despite current global turmoil. Financial market integration in South Asia could have synchronised economic activities of the countries in the region due to the impact of consolidation. This suggests that when the region’s economies grow/contract, all countries could follow the same path demonstrating a co-movement of growth rates among countries. When economic growth rates are similar for a region, it may be easier to formulate economic policies to achieve a common goal. As the political leadership of South Asia has agreed to work towards forming an economic block similar to that of the European Union and ASIAN, examining co-movement of growth rates could shed more lights on the issue of the success of market integration in the region. The objective of this study is to study market integration by analysing financial markets, trade and economic growth data to spot whether there is any co-movement of growth rates among South Asian countries due to financial market deregulation policies implemented so far. As findings show mix results, we used region’s governance indicators to examine further and found that weak governance is a serious problem in the South Asian region.


2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.


2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Carone ◽  
Declan Costello ◽  
Nuria Diez Guardia ◽  
Per Eckefeldt ◽  
Gilles Mourre

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 6930-6941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Qu ◽  
Gang Huang

Abstract The tropical Indian Ocean (TIO)’s influence on the South Asia high (SAH)’s intensity experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s; after (before) the decadal shift, the influence is significant (insignificant). The present study investigates the role of tropospheric temperature in relaying the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) to the SAH and the change in the TIO’s influence. During the two epochs, the local tropospheric temperature responses to the TIO warming are distinct—more significant during the second epoch. It is inferred that this change may be responsible for the strengthening of the TIO’s influence on the SAH. Encouragingly, the ensemble simulations accurately capture the time of the decadal change, indicating that the enhanced influence is attributed to the SST forcing. There are two possible reasons for the change in the TIO–SAH relationship. The first reason is the change in the locations of the SST anomalies in the TIO. During the second epoch, positive SST anomalies lie in the Indian Ocean warm pool. Through the background vigorous convection and moist adjustment, the SST anomalies affect largely the tropospheric temperature and thus the SAH. The second reason is the decadal change in mean SST and the SST variability. During the recent decades, both the background SST and the variability of the TIO SST increase, which enhance the influence of the SST anomalies on the atmosphere. The influence of the remote oceanic forcing on the enhanced TIO–SAH relationship and its comparison with the contribution of the TIO SST are also discussed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habib Zafarullah ◽  
Ahmed Shafiqul Huque

Purpose With climate change and environmental degradation being major issues in the world today, it is imperative for governments within a regional setting to collaborate on initiatives, harmonize their policies and develop strategies to counter threats. In South Asia, several attempts have been made to create a common framework for action in implementing synchronized policies. However, both political and technical deterrents have thwarted moves to accommodate priorities and interests of collaborating states. The purpose of this paper is to assess these issues and existing policies/strategies in selected South Asian countries and evaluate integrated plans of action based on collaborative partnerships. Design/methodology/approach Using a broad exploratory and interpretive approach, this paper evaluates how harmonization of environmental principles and synergies among countries can help reduce the effect of climate change and environmental hazards. Based on a review of ideas and concepts as well as both primary and secondary sources, including official records, legislation, inter-state and regional agreements, evaluation reports, impact studies (social, economic and ecological), and commentaries, it highlights several initiatives and processes geared to creating environmental protection standards and practices for the South Asian region. Findings Climate change has resulted in devastating impacts on people. It contributed to the proliferation of climate refugees and high incidence of poverty in South Asia. The region faces both political and technical obstacles in developing a sustainable approach to combat climate change. This is exacerbated by non-availability of information as well as reluctance to acknowledge the problem by key actors. The best strategy will be to integrate policies and regulations in the various countries of the region to develop strategic plans. The approach of prevention and protection should replace the existing emphasis on relief and rehabilitation. Originality/value The paper provides a critical overview of the climatic and environmental problems encountered in the South Asian region and provides pointers to resolving shared problems through the use of policy instruments for regulating the problems within the gamut of regional environmental governance. It attempts to identify solutions to offset regulatory and institutional barriers in achieving preferred results by emphasizing the need for redesigning regulatory structures and policy approaches for ecological well-being.


2019 ◽  
pp. 83-90
Author(s):  
Izabella Kimak

This essay constitutes an attempt at reading Bharati Mukherjee’s 2011 novel, Miss New India, through the prism of spatial locations depicted in it. Unlike many of the texts in the late South Asian American author’s oeuvre, which depict migration from the East to the West, Miss New India is located exclusively within South Asia. This notwithstanding, the novel focuses on the impact the West used to and continues to exert on the East. I would like to argue that through her depictions of places and non-places of Bangalore-the novel’s primary location-Mukherjee points to the spatial interconnectedness of the East and the West as well as to the temporal interconnectedness of the colonial past and postcolonial, late-capitalist present.


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