scholarly journals Risk Aversion and Emotions in DoND

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Burak Kahyaoglu ◽  
Özgür Ican
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Television Shows ◽  
Reading Software ◽  
Decision Making Behavior ◽  
Face Reading ◽  
Tv Show

Contrary to the traditional economic school of thought, emotions known to have a huge effect on cognitive processes leading to decisions. In this context, it can be observed that some television shows provide a very appropriate test-bed for examining decision-making behavior under risk. This study attempts to estimate the degree of Arrow-Pratt RRA for a group of decision-makers composed of 101 “Deal or No Deal” TV show contestants. For further analysis, a “face-reading” software was employed in order to identify emotions experienced by contestants at various parts of the game, and the influence of such emotions on the risk aversion behavior. Our findings suggest that emotions have an influence on the decisions of the contestants.

scholarly journals Heart Rate Variability and Decision-Making: Autonomic Responses in Making Decisions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 243
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Forte ◽  
Matteo Morelli ◽  
Maria Casagrande
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Heart Rate Variability ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Iowa Gambling Task ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Valid Index ◽  
Inhibitory Circuit ◽  
The Relationship

Decision-making is one of the most crucial cognitive processes in daily life. An adaptable, rapid, and flexible decision requires integration between brain and body. Heart rate variability (HRV) indexes this brain–body connection and appears to be related to cognitive performance. However, its relationship with decision-making is poorly analyzed. This study investigates the relationship between HRV and the decision-making process, assessed through the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). One hundred and thirty healthy university students (mean age = 23.35 ± 2.50) participated in the study. According to IGT performance, they were divided into high decision-makers (n = 79) and low decision-makers (n = 51). Heart rate variability was measured in the resting, reactivity (i.e., during IGT), and recovery phases. Higher vagally mediated HRV (vmHRV; indexed in frequency domain measures) was evidenced in good decision-makers in the resting, reactivity, and recovery phases. During the task, a higher vagal modulation after a first evaluation was highlighted in good decision-makers. In conclusion, HRV proves to be a valid index of inhibitory circuit functioning in the prefrontal cortex. The relationship with cognitive functions was also confirmed, considering the ability to inhibit disadvantageous responses and make better decisions.

scholarly journals Measure inegality in the investors risk aversion and behavioral heterogeneity: method and experimentation

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-255
Author(s):  
Jihene Jebeniani ◽  
Mokhtar Kouki
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Financial Investments ◽  
Behavioral Heterogeneity

This article studies the inequalities in measurements of the risk aversion in the context of the financial investments in Tunisia. We clarify initially the factors constitutive of the risk aversion. The studied actors are individual decision makers. The tackled questions are the risk attitude (including the risks known as extremes), its perception, its evaluation, the decision-making in risky universe. The empirical data were collected through experimental sessions carried out in Tunisia. We propose a framework of analysis for the study of the investors preferences based on an operational econometric modeling. The estimated models are the ordered probit and the ordered probit with random effects. The model with random effects has the advantage of making it possible to test the heterogeneity of the individuals and to measure the inequality in risk aversion of the investors, and this, by studying the components between and within-individual of the variance of the risk aversion.

scholarly journals Political Decision Making in Face-to-Face Groups: Theory, Methods, and an Empirical Application in Switzerland

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 368-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Dorff ◽  
Jürg Steiner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Innovative Methodology ◽  
Group Substance ◽  
The Face ◽  
Decision Group ◽  
Decision Making Behavior ◽  
Political Decision Making

This article presents a model of decision making and introduces a new theoretical variable to the literature, namely, the modes of decision making. The theoretical focus is on the face-to-face group, and the article also develops an innovative methodology for studying this type of decision-making behavior. Variation in the decision modes is explained as a function of the strategic considerations of individual decision makers. These considerations are affected by a set of four independent variables: structure of the decision group, substance of the conflict, context of the conflict, and the decision process. The data, drawn from observations of decision-making groups in Switzerland, are tested with discriminant analysis and a simulation. In both cases total correct classifications exceed 55 percent, indicating that there is a meaningful structure relating variation in the decision modes to the theoretical framework.

scholarly journals Luck as a Double-Edged Sword: Personnel and Performance Changes after Lucky Outcomes in the National Football League

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Siler
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Learning ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
National Football League ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Perverse Incentives ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Career Incentives

Luck is an omnipresent factor which influences experiences and outcomes for individuals and organizations. This article analyzes how lucky and unlucky outcomes influence future organizational learning, decision-making and performance. Team statistics and outcomes are analyzed over 769 National Football League seasons for 32 franchises from 1990-2015. Four specific sources of luck are identified and measured: 1) divergence of win outcomes from actual team quality; 2) difficulty of opposition; 3) fumble recovery rates and 4) player injuries. Teams and players have little or no influence over these lucky factors, which nevertheless influence game outcomes, and by extension, the careers of players and coaches. Luck alters game outcomes and in turn significantly influences the retention or firing of coaches and players, which shapes their career incentives and decision-making. In addition to negatively affecting future performance via distorted learning, luck can also generate perverse incentives; in this case, encouraging risk aversion and scapegoating. Mistaking noise for signal – and conflating luck with skill – is conducive to poorer future decisions and outcomes. Paradoxically, luck can provide a means of skill-based advantage for savvy decision-makers, who learn more effectively from noisy feedback than others who are misled.

Modeling Bias Reduction Strategies in a Biased Agent

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaelle Scheuerman ◽  
Dina Acklin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Intelligent Agents ◽  
Cognitive Architecture ◽  
Bias Reduction ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Human Participants ◽  
Similar Task

Costly mistakes can occur when decision makers rely on intuition or learned biases to make decisions. To better understand the cognitive processes that lead to bias and develop strategies to combat it, we developed an intelligent agent using the cognitive architecture, ACT-R 7.0. The agent simulates a human participating in a decision making task designed to assess the effectiveness of bias reduction strategies. The agent's performance is compared to that of human participants completing a similar task. Similar results support the underlying cognitive theories and reveal limitations of reducing bias in human decision making. This should provide insights for designing intelligent agents that can reason about bias while supporting decision makers.

scholarly journals RATIONALITY OR IRRATIONALITY? DECISION TO QUIT A JOB TO START A BUSINESS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (08) ◽  
pp. 342-346
Author(s):  
Aliyu Aminu Ahmed ◽  
◽  
Ruqayya Aminu Muhammad ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Management Consulting ◽  
Economic Man ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Classical Decision

The paper discusses rationality and decision making with a critical reflection on decisions by employees to quit jobs and set up fragile, micro, and rival businesses. This is a common phenomenon in management consulting businesses in especially emerging economies, where the demand for consultancy services is ballooning. The concepts of decision making and factors that influence decision making were discussed. Rationality and irrationality within the context of economics were briefly defined and theories such as (1) The utility theory , (2) The utility maximization theory and (3)The classical decision theory were used to explain the phenomenon. It was found that reasons for quitting or staying in a management consulting job is not only motivated by preparedness or readiness, rather a complex array of factors, some of which are observable and explainable while others may be attributable to complex cognitive processes that cannot be easily observed and explained. Deciding to leave a job is a complex but intentional rational decision that is influenced by many factors, some of which are observable, environmental, and cognitive. It is in the nature of the economic man to always decide, consequences of which might be sometimes predictable or influenced by events outside of the decision-makers control.

Elaborating the role of reflection and individual differences in the study of folk-economic beliefs

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Arceneaux
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Behavioral Responses ◽  
History Of ◽  
Economic Beliefs

AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.

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