scholarly journals Political Decision Making in Face-to-Face Groups: Theory, Methods, and an Empirical Application in Switzerland

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 368-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Dorff ◽  
Jürg Steiner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Innovative Methodology ◽  
Group Substance ◽  
The Face ◽  
Decision Group ◽  
Decision Making Behavior ◽  
Political Decision Making

This article presents a model of decision making and introduces a new theoretical variable to the literature, namely, the modes of decision making. The theoretical focus is on the face-to-face group, and the article also develops an innovative methodology for studying this type of decision-making behavior. Variation in the decision modes is explained as a function of the strategic considerations of individual decision makers. These considerations are affected by a set of four independent variables: structure of the decision group, substance of the conflict, context of the conflict, and the decision process. The data, drawn from observations of decision-making groups in Switzerland, are tested with discriminant analysis and a simulation. In both cases total correct classifications exceed 55 percent, indicating that there is a meaningful structure relating variation in the decision modes to the theoretical framework.

Whither the Daang Matuwid?: Overconfidence in Benigno S. Aquino III’s Perception of Survival (2010–2016)

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-148
Author(s):  
Eryan Ramadhani
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Psychology ◽  
Cognitive Complexity ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Political Institution ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
Political Decision Making

Abstract The study of political decision-making cannot exclude the actors involved in the process. Neither can it disregard the interplay between decision-makers and political institution where they operate. This article aims to explain how perception of survival affects decision-making by focusing on leaders, specifically by analysing Benigno S. Aquino III’s leadership (2010–2016). Built on political psychology, I will show that motivation to maintain power may bias leaders’ reasoning leading to suboptimal decision. Accountability can help leaders mitigate bias, or de-bias, by stimulating their use of cognitive complexity. But the same effort may backfire and make leaders resort to heuristics instead. Where leaders end up in the cognitive spectrum depends on the types of audiences to whom they feel accountable: core (the ruling elites and loyal voters) and external (the opposition and its supporters) audiences. Preoccupation with core audiences can make leaders downplay the opposition challenge. Furthermore, leaders’ perceived understanding of their support base may be erroneous. The result is overconfidence in their perception of survival. I argue that President Aquino’s misperception of survival was rooted in his belief that (1) Filipinos would like to have his legacy continued and that (2) his popularity would help his successor Manuel Araneta Roxas II win the 2016 presidential race. This overconfidence turned out to be detrimental. Roxas’s electoral loss to Rodrigo Duterte put an end to the Daang Matuwid, President Aquino’s good governance platform.

Technology Imperative in Managerial Decision-Making

2014 ◽  
pp. 158-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neeta Baporikar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Managerial Decision Making ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
The Core ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Management Approaches ◽  
Virtual Setting

Decisions can make or mar an organization. Decision-making is a multifaceted and intricate process. This process becomes even more complicated and complex when it comes to organizations, especially in this competitive world. Today, decisions are made not only under uncertainty, with available and/or limited information, but may also be made in a virtual setting. Decision makers may not be engaged in face-to-face deliberations. Hence, understanding the challenges, complexity, and rewards of the use of technology, especially information technology in managerial decision-making, is important. Such an understanding is not only vital in determining the efficacy of managers and their organizations, but also significant in designing future management approaches and organizations. This is the core objective of this chapter.

Sunk Costs and Political Decision Making

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sunk Costs ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Mixed Support ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Political Decision Making ◽  
Forward Looking

The “sunk costs fallacy” is a popular import into political science from organizational psychology and behavioral economics. The fallacy is classically defined as a situation in which decision-makers escalate commitment to an apparently failing project in order to “recoup” the costs they have already sunk into it. The phenomenon is often framed as a good example of how real decision-making departs from the assumption of forward-looking rationality which underpins traditional approaches to understanding politics. Researchers have proposed a number of different psychological drivers for the fallacy, such as cognitive dissonance reduction, and there is experimental and observational evidence that it accurately characterizes decision-making in certain contexts. However, there is significant skepticism about the fallacy in many social sciences, with critics arguing that there are better forward-looking rational explanations for decisions apparently driven by a desire to recoup sunk costs – among them reputational concerns, option values and agency problems. Critics have also noted that in practical situations sunk costs are informative both about decision makers’ intrinsic valuation for the issue and the prospects for success, making it hard to discern a separate role for sunk costs empirically. To address these concerns, empirical researchers have employed a number of strategies, especially leveraging natural experiments in certain non-political decision making contexts such as sports or business, in order to isolate the effects of sunk costs per se from other considerations. In doing so, they have found mixed support for the fallacy. Research has also shown that the prevalence of the sunk costs fallacy may be moderated by a number of factors, including the locus of decision-making, framing, and national context. These provide the basis for suggestions for future research.

scholarly journals INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKING BEHAVIOR AND PERSONALITY

1989 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.H.B. Radford ◽  
L. Mann ◽  
Y. OHTA ◽  
Y. NAKANE
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Individual Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Behavior

Thünen-Vorlesung: Unternehmensführung und ökonomische Rationalität

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert Hax
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Organizational Context ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Normative Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Individual Decision Making ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract In a normative theory of decision making in the firm, limited cognitive capabilities of decision makers can be taken into account in different ways. If individual decision making alone is being considered, the concept of rationality must be defined in such a way that it is acceptable from the viewpoint of potential users of the theory. In an organizational context, normative theory deals primarily with the design of contracts; as far as the anticipation of the actual behaviour of contract partners is concerned an empirically valid descriptive decision theory is needed. A major problem which arises if one applies contract theory to problems of corporate governance is the definition of an adequate standard to evaluate the firm’s outcome periodically. Accounting profit and market value are two possible measures, but both have grave shortcomings.

Unraveling the Complexities of Decision Making in Face-to-Face Groups: A Contextual Analysis of Plea-Bargained Sentences

1984 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 912-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter F. Nardulli ◽  
Roy B. Flemming ◽  
James Eisenstein
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Contextual Analysis ◽  
Criminal Case ◽  
Multilevel Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Made In

This article uses a variety of multilevel data collected from a nine-county study of felony courts to examine the joint effects of contextual and individual level (sociopolitical characteristics of decision workers) upon decisions made in face-to-face groups. The research finds that although the sociopolitical characteristics of decision makers (attitudes toward punishment, Machiavellianism, and operating styles) made a difference in the outcome of interactions, their role could not be accessed independent of the contextual factors surrounding the interactions. Some of the most important contextual factors were the kind of criminal case being handled, prosecutor office policies restricting discretion, and the configuration of attributes in the group handling the case. Although the data are wholly derived from the criminal court setting, the implications of the findings for studying decision making in other face-to-face groups are developed.

On Extending Power-Geometric Operators to Interval-Valued Hesitant Fuzzy Sets and Their Applications to Group Decision Making

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (05) ◽  
pp. 1055-1114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Hua Xiong ◽  
Zhen-Song Chen ◽  
Yan-Lai Li ◽  
Kwai-Sang Chin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Aggregation Operators ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Variable Power ◽  
Interval Valued

Developing aggregation operators for interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets (IVHFSs) is a technological task we are faced with, because they are specifically important in many problems related to the fusion of interval-valued hesitant fuzzy information. This paper develops several novel kinds of power geometric operators, which are referred to as variable power geometric operators, and extends them to interval-valued hesitant fuzzy environments. A series of generalized interval-valued hesitant fuzzy power geometric (GIVHFG) operators are also proposed to aggregate the IVHFSs to model mandatory requirements. One of the important characteristics of these operators is that objective weights of input arguments are variable with the change of a non-negative parameter. By adjusting the exact value of the parameter, the influence caused by some “false” or “biased” arguments can be reduced. We demonstrate some desirable and useful properties of the proposed aggregation operators and utilize them to develop techniques for multiple criteria group decision making with IVHFSs considering the heterogeneous opinions among individual decision makers. Furthermore, we propose an entropy weights-based fitting approach for objectively obtaining the appropriate value of the parameter. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

scholarly journals Between technochauvinism and human-centrism: Can algorithms improve decision-making in democratic politics?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal D. König ◽  
Georg Wenzelburger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Democratic Politics ◽  
Cognitive Tasks ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Political Decision Making ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractThe promise of algorithmic decision-making (ADM) lies in its capacity to support or replace human decision-making based on a superior ability to solve specific cognitive tasks. Applications have found their way into various domains of decision-making—and even find appeal in the realm of politics. Against the backdrop of widespread dissatisfaction with politicians in established democracies, there are even calls for replacing politicians with machines. Our discipline has hitherto remained surprisingly silent on these issues. The present article argues that it is important to have a clear grasp of when and how ADM is compatible with political decision-making. While algorithms may help decision-makers in the evidence-based selection of policy instruments to achieve pre-defined goals, bringing ADM to the heart of politics, where the guiding goals are set, is dangerous. Democratic politics, we argue, involves a kind of learning that is incompatible with the learning and optimization performed by algorithmic systems.

Heuristics and Biases in Political Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celine Colombo ◽  
Marco R. Steenbergen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Heuristics And Biases ◽  
Ancient Greek ◽  
Political Issue ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
To Come ◽  
Time Information ◽  
Political Decision Making

Heuristics have rapidly become a core concept in the study of political behavior. The term heuristic stems from the ancient Greek heuriskein, which means “to discover.” In psychology and political science, the term is used to describe cognitive shortcuts in decision making under uncertainty. The key idea is that decision makers with limited time, information, or resources use such shortcuts, thereby bypassing a certain amount of information to reach appropriate decisions. In this sense, heuristics contrast with classical rational choice. Using heuristics allows efficient decision making but can lead to biases, errors, and suboptimal decisions. Heuristics allow decision makers to draw inferences, to fill in information gaps, and to form an impression of the decision at hand. Indeed, they may be the only way to come to grips with uncertainty, especially when a decision is urgent. In political science, the concept of heuristics, originating in mathematics, economics, and psychology, has long been hailed as a possible remedy to citizens’ lack of political knowledge. Citizens participate in democratic decisions, but these decisions often pose high cognitive and informational demands. Ideally, citizens with little information about a political issue or about a candidate could use heuristics in order to reach decisions resembling those of their more well-informed peers. More recently, however, the possible biases introduced by reliance on heuristics, in particular partisan bias and a lack of consideration of different alternatives, has received more attention. Moreover, some studies show that heuristics can be used most efficiently by voters who are relatively well informed and highly interested in politics. The question of whether, or under which circumstances, heuristics can be a useful tool for democratic decision making has not yet been answered conclusively.

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