scholarly journals Impacts of Monetary Policy on Stock Market through Survey from Investors

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Trung Thanh Nguyen ◽  
Thi Linh Do ◽  
Van Duy Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Research Results ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p>Analyzing the impacts of the monetary policy on the stock market is very important to investors. There are many papers studying this relationship, but study based on investors is still limited. This paper is conducted by interviewing experts and Stock Investors in Vietnam. After having research results, the authors continue to use multi-variables method (EFA, regression analysis) and get the following outcomes: According to investors, the policy of interest rate, required reserved ration and exchange rate have impacts on Vietnam stock market; the policy of money supply does not have influence on the market. At the same time, interest rate has the strongest impact on stock market following by the required reserved ratio and the exchange rate.</p>

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy Modifications: Evidence from an Emergent Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero ◽  
Dorcas Titilayo Adetula ◽  
Kingsley Adeyemo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Harmful Effect ◽  
Stock Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Market Performance

This study evaluates the stock market reaction to monetary policy modifications in an emerging market using Nigeria as a case study.  Due to the crucial role the stock market plays in the global economy and finance, it becomes an attraction for most researchers and policymakers who try to find a basis for its smooth operation.  This study uses data that cover a period from 1998 to 2018 to establish what the position is in recent times empirically. The data are collected on all share index, money supply, interest rate and exchange rate. The multiple regression results provide evidence that the money supply has a significant favourable influence on the all-share index. In contrast, the interest rate has an immaterial harmful effect on the stock market output.  However, the result indicates that the exchange rate affects the stock market performance negatively, but the effect is insignificant. Based on these findings, the study suggests pilot test running of all monetary policy amendments by the monetary authority in the country before full implementation.  The government should encourage the CBN to cut down on interest rate and avoid all policies that will lead to a crash in the Nigerian stock market.   Received: 16 October 2020 / Accepted: 12 February 2021 / Published: 10 May 2021

Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Prices in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Bhim Prasad Panta
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run

Background: Stock market plays a crucial role in the financial system of a country. It can be viewed as a channel through which resources are properly channelized. It enables the governments and industry to raise long-term capital for financing new projects. The stock markets of developing economies are likely to be sensitive to various macro-economic factors such as GDP, imports, exports, exchange rates etc., when there is high demand on financial products, as a constituent of financial market, ultimately stock market needs to develop. Many factors can be a signal to stock market participants to expect a higher or lower return when investing in stock and one of these factors are macroeconomic variables and thus, macro-economic variables tend to effect on stock market development. Objective: This study examines the linkage between stock market prices (NEPSE index) and five macro-economic variables, namely; real GDP, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate using ARDL model and to explain the behavior of the Nepal Stock Exchange Index. Methods: The ECM which is delivered from ARDL model through simple linear transformation to integrate short run adjustments with long run equilibrium without losing long run information. The analysis has been done by using 25 years' annual data from 1994 to 2019. Findings: The result suggests that the fluctuation of Nepse Index in long run is strongly associated with broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate. Conclusion: Though Nepalese stock market is in primitive stage, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate are major factors affecting stock market price of Nepal. So, policies and strategies should be made and directed taking these in to consideration. Implication: The findings of research can be helpful to understand the behavior of Nepalese stock market and develop policies for market stabilization.

scholarly journals Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia (Suatu Pendekatan Model Dinamik)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Afrizal Afrizal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the magnitude of the effect of the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate on inflation in Indonesia during the period 2000.12016.4. The analysis tools used for this research data are: unit root test, integration degree test, cointegration test, error correction model / ECM. The results showed that all staioner research data at level 1 (first difference) based on cointegration test showed that the variables observed in this study co-integration or have long-term relationship. The ECM model used is valid, as indicated by the error correction term (ECT) coefficient is significant. In the short run the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate is not significant to the inflation rate, but in the long term is significant.

scholarly journals Impacts of the monetary policy on the exchange rate: case study of Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-237
Author(s):  
Van Anh Pham
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches. Findings The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER. Originality/value The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) Stock Market Return in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uma Murthy ◽  
Paul Anthony ◽  
Rubana Vighnesvaran
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return

This paper studies the relationship between Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Stock Market Return with four macroeconomic determinants, namely interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and oil price from January 1997 to December 2015 on a monthly basis with a total of 228 observations. However, most of the studies are carried out in developed countries and large economic nations instead of in emerging markets such as Malaysia. Thus, this study aims to extend the existing studies to include the impact of several macroeconomics determinants namely interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and oil price on KLCI stock market return. This paper employed Multiple Linear Regression to examine the statistical relationship and to test the hypotheses. The data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science, SPSS. For diagnostic checking, there is existence of autocorrelation problem which is typically found in time-series data.  Results indicated that there is negative relationship between exchange rate and stock market return and positive relationship between money supply and stock market return. Interest rate and oil price are found to have insignificant relationship with stock market return.

scholarly journals BAGAIMANA DAMPAK TRANSAKSI NON TUNAI DAN INFLASI TERHADAP JUMAH UANG YANG BEREDAR

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-148
Author(s):  
Meilinda Nur Rasyida Fatmawati ◽  
Indah Yuliana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

ABSTRAK Transaksi non tunai kini semakin banyak digunakan dalam bertransaksi. Selain lebih praktis, mudah dan cepat, transaksi non tunai memiliki pengaruh terhadap kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Dalam kebijakan moneter, transaksi non tunai mempengaruhi tingkat jumlah uang beredar di masyarakat. Selain itu, terdapat faktor lain yang dapat mempengaruhi jumlah uang beredar yaitu inflasi. Transaksi non tunai pada penelitian ini menggunakan ATM debet, ATM kredit dan uang elektronik. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mendapatkan bukti pengaruh transaksi non tunai terhadap jumlah uang beredar di Indonesia dengan inflasi sebagai variabel moderasi selama tahun 2015- 2018. Pengumpulan data menggunakan data sekunder dan teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah uji Moderating Regression Analysis (MRA). Berdasarkan hasil penelitian yang telah dilakukan adalah transaksi non tunai memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi mampu memperkuat hubungan transaksi non tunai terhadap jumlah uang beredar.   Kata Kunci: ATM debet. ATM kredit, uang eletronik, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar (M1)   ABSTRACT The use of Non-cash transactions in society are increasing recently. It is more practical, easy and fast, moreover non-cash transactions have an influence on monetary policy in Indonesia. In monetary policy, non-cash transactions affect the level of money supply. In addition, there are other factors that can affect the money supply, namely inflation. Non-cash transactions in this study use a debit ATM, credit ATM and electronic money. The purpose of this study is to obtain evidence of the effect of non-cash transactions on the money supply in Indonesia with inflation as a moderating variable during 2015-2018. Data collection is based on secondary data and the analysis technique used is Moderating Regression Analysis (MRA) test. This research results that non-cash transactions have a positive and significant effect on the money supply and inflation is able to strengthen the relationship of non-cash transactions and the money supply. Keywords: Debit AT, ATM credit, electronic money, inflation, money supply (M1)

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Morocco: Stability and Implications

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-28
Author(s):  
MERYEM ERRAITEB
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Narrow Sense ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Aggregate Growth ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

The purpose of this study is evaluating the effectiveness of monetary policy in Morocco. The results suggest that the monetary authorities must get out of the narrowness of logic monetarist by adopting a new approach which explicitly privileges the targeting of inflation as the ultimate goal, while referring to a multitude of indicators likely to guide the Central Bank in the conduct of its monetary policy as the exchange rate and interest rate next to the M3 aggregate growth rule. Thus, monetary authorities should out of the narrow sense monetarist by adopting a new approach that focuses explicitly targeting inflation as the ultimate goal, while referring to a multitude of indicators to guide the central bank in the conduct of monetary policy as exchange rate and Interest rate ET and this, alongside the growth rule M3.  

scholarly journals The relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market volatility: empirical evidence from the Vietnam stock market

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Kieu Minh Nguyen ◽  
Diep Van Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

The main target of this study is to measure the relationship of macroeconomic factors to the volatility of the stock market in Vietnam (through stock price VN-index). There are four factors including the consumer price index (measure of inflation), the exchange rate of USD/VND and money supply M2. Research shows that the stock price VN-Index has a positive relationship with the money supply M2 and the domestic gold price in long term. On the contrary, it has a negative relationship with the inflation while it does not have any connection to the exchange rate and stock price index. In short term, the current stock price index has proportional to the stock price index last month and inversely proportional to the exchange rate. The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that the Vietnam stock market converges to the equilibrium about 8 months (adjusted approximately 13.04% per month) to reach equilibrium in the long term.

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