scholarly journals Evaluation on the Effect of Regional Development Policy: The Case of Guizhou Province’s Catching-up Strategy in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Baiping Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Guizhou Province ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
The People

China has been facing the dangerous dilemma of unbalanced regional development as the world does. With the coming of the two centenary goals, facing the peculiar difficulties and present conditions in Guizhou province, the central government of the People’s Republic of China made and implemented the catching-up strategy in Guizhou province in 2012. This paper regards implementing catching-up strategy in Guizhou province as a social quasi experiment, chooses 15 middle and western provinces or municipalities to compose control group, applies provincial panel data from 1998 to 2017, and uses synthetic control method to acquire a synthetic Guizhou province which is specified as a counterfactual condition of Guizhou after 2011 to study the economic effects of catching-up strategy quantitatively. The conclusion of positive econometric analysis indicates: from 2011 onward when implementing catching-up strategy, Guizhou Province’s growth rate of real GDP is higher than ‘the synthetic Guizhou’ by 1.4 percent to 3.4 percent. The paper asserts that in comparison with the universal strategy of regional development, practicing targeted catching-up strategy aiming at special region could realize surpassing speedily.

scholarly journals Carbon Trading Scheme in the People's Republic of China: Evaluating the Performance of Seven Pilot Projects

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Chen ◽  
Jintao Xu
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
People’S Republic Of China ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
People's Republic Of China ◽  
Pilot Projects ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Trading Scheme

The People's Republic of China (PRC) launched seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot projects in 2013–2014 to explore a cost-effective approach for low-carbon development. The central government subsequently announced its plans for the full-fledged implementation of ETS in the entire PRC in late 2017. To ensure the success of ETS in the PRC, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the experiences and lessons learned in the pilot projects. In this paper, we provide a policy overview of the seven pilot projects, including policy design, legislative basis, and market performance. We use the synthetic control method to evaluate the carbon mitigation effect of each of the seven ETS pilots. Our findings are that success has been limited and uneven across the pilot projects, which warrants deeper evaluation of the differences between them and caution in scheme expansion. Results from the analysis also shed light on policy improvements that can benefit the nationwide development of ETS.

scholarly journals When is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-228
Author(s):  
Layla Parast ◽  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Beth Ann Griffin ◽  
David Powell
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PERKEMBANGAN KEMAMPUAN KEUANGAN DAERAH DALAM MENDUKUNG PELAKSANAAN OTONOMI DAERAH PADA DINAS PENDAPATAN DAERAH KOTA TIDORE

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
Umilhair Alting ◽  
Winston Pontoh ◽  
I Gede Suwetja
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Financial Capability ◽  
Growth Ratio ◽  
Regional Autonomy ◽  
New Beginning ◽  
The People

Fiscal decentralization is one the major component of the decentralization implementation of regional autonomy. As the new beginning in regional development and the people in managing the resources or all of the potential to the prosperity and the progress of region. Financial aspect is one of the basic criteria to find out the real capability regional government in managing their autonomy system (household system) the capability of regional government in managing their financial can be seen in APBD which describes the capability of local government in financing the activities of development task and equity in each region. The purpose of this research is to determine the financial capability of Tidore in regional autonomy especially in 2013-2017 judging by ratio of independency, decentralization fiscal degree, growth ratio. This research used observation, interview and documentation to collect the data. The data was analyzed using qualitative and quantitative data with described analysis. The result showed that the independence ratio of Tidore has been able to improve its financial capability. The degree of decentralization is still highly dependent on the central government, although it has been increasing year by year. Growth rate fluctuated this indicates the local government of Tidore is not too concerned with regional development and community welfare.Keywords: regional autonomy, ratio of independency, The degree of decentralization ratio, Growth ratio.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of the employment roadmap on the unemployment rate of the Republic of Kazakhstan: synthetic control method

2021 ◽  
pp. 121-130
Author(s):  
T. S. Sokira ◽  
Z. T. Myshbayeva
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weighted Combination

The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the action plan of the Employment Roadmap on the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan.Methodology. Synthetic Control Method was used in this paper. The method, which compares one or more units exposed to the event and determines what would have happened if the unit had not been treated. In other words, this method creates a weighted combination of control states to create a single «synthetic» control group, in order to approach the counterfactual unit in Kazakhstan in the absence of a plan or Roadmap.The originality / value of the research based on the analysis, panel data from Kazakhstan and 13 donor pool countries for the period 2000-2019 were taken for modeling.Findings: As a result of the study, it was revealed that the unemployment rate would have been 2% higher in 2019 if Kazakhstan had not adopted an action plan in the form of an Employment Roadmap in 2009.

A different choice, a different outcome: budgetary effects of a conservative legislator in liberal local regions of South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Hoyong Jung
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Korean Society ◽  
Community Budget

Abstract In Korean society, regionalism has deep historical roots and has had a great influence on elections. A historic event occurred in 2014 when a conservative party candidate, Lee Jung-hyun, was elected as a member of the National Assembly in Suncheon-si, Jeollanam-do, where liberal parties have been in the midst of powerful political influence. This was possible because voters responded to the candidate's appeal to vote based on benefits to the local economy, that is, securing greater funding from the central government. Exploiting the synthetic control method, this article identifies how this different choice has affected the budget of the local district. The results show that the community budget has increased dramatically, and a battery of robustness checks also supports these basic results. On the basis of the empirical evidence, the study suggests the possibility of overcoming a long-standing parochial regionalism in Korean politics through economic voting and its practical benefits.

scholarly journals The effect of reduced unemployment duration on the unemployment rate: a Synthetic Control Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-73
Author(s):  
Luzius Stricker ◽  
Moreno Baruffini
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of the fourth partial revision of the law of unemployment insurance (AVIG) on unemployment dynamics in Switzerland at a cantonal level. The authors apply the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), a matching method for comparative case studies. A counterfactual analysis of the cases studied is performed by combining a control group of several untreated units, which provides a better comparison to the treatment group than a single unit. The control unit is designed as a weighted average of the available cantons in the donor pool, taking into account the similarities between the chosen controls and the treated unit. Once policy changes are controlled, the results suggest a significant effect on the unemployment rate at a cantonal level: the reform had a discernible impact on lowering the unemployment rate in the Italian- and French-speaking cantons in Switzerland.

Democratization and Economic Output in Sub-Saharan Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel de Kadt ◽  
Stephen B. Wittels
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
National Level ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Positive Effect

Does democratization increase economic output? Answers to this question are inconsistent partly due to the challenges of examining the causal forces behind political and economic phenomena that occur at the national level. We employ a new empirical approach, the synthetic control method, to study the economic effects of democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1975–2008. This method yields case-specific causal estimates, which show that political reform associated with the “third wave” of democracy had highly heterogeneous, yet often substantively important effects in Africa. In some countries democratization adversely affected economic output while in others it exerted an analogous positive effect.

scholarly journals The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 457-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fırat Bilgel ◽  
Burhan Can Karahasan
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
The Real ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
Gdp Gap

Turkey has been suffering from separatist terrorism and the political conflict it implies since the mid-1980s, both of which are believed to have a negative impact on economic welfare. This article investigates the economic costs of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorism, particularly in the Eastern and Southeastern provinces of Turkey by invoking the synthetic control method. We create a synthetic control group that mimics the socioeconomic characteristics of the provinces exposed to terrorism before the PKK terrorism emerged in the mid-1980s. We then compare the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the synthetic provinces without terrorism to the actual provinces with terrorism for the period 1975 to 2001. Causal inference is carried out by comparing the real per capita GDP gap between the synthetic and actual provinces against the intensity of PKK terrorist activity. Extended over a period of fourteen years (1988 to 2001), we find that after the emergence of terrorism, the per capita real GDP in Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia declined by about 6.6 percent relative to a comparable synthetic Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia without terrorism.

scholarly journals Stay Home Save Lives: A Machine Learning Approach to Causal Inference to Evaluate Impact of Social Distancing in the US

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Muhammad Ishraque Osman ◽  
Nazmus Sakib
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Us States ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Although there are few studies done to provide estimations of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, however, there is a need for an actual policy evaluation of the already implemented social distancing measures. In the US context in specific, this is especially instrumental because nearly a dozen US states are considering the reopening of the economy following anti social distancing protests. Using a machine learning based Generalized Synthetic Control Method, considering the US states that adopted early social distancing approaches as the treatment group and the states that adopted social distancing much later as the control group and controlling for state and time fixed effects (to cancel out the selection bias and endogeneity), this paper finds that social distancing is associated with lower COVID-19 infection growth rate (by 192%) when compared to the no policy intervention counterfactual.

scholarly journals Water Pollution and Administrative Division Adjustments: A Quasi-natural Experiment in Chaohu Lake of China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Li ◽  
Di Liu ◽  
Mengyuan Cai
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Ammonia Nitrogen ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Chaohu Lake ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Water Quality Indicators ◽  
Administrative Division

AbstractThe adjustment of administrative divisions introduces a series of uncertain impacts on the social and economic development in the administrative region. Previous studies focused more on the economic effects of the adjustment of administrative divisions, while, in this paper, we also take environmental effects into consideration. The administrative division adjustment for Chaohu Lake is used as a quasi-natural experiment to explore the influence of the adjustment on pollution control. The synthetic control method is used in this study to access the effect of administrative division adjustment on the water quality indicators of Chaohu Lake and its internal mechanism. Some conclusions are as follows. First, after the administrative division adjustment, some water quality indicators, such as ammonia nitrogen, have indeed been alleviated; however, other major pollution indicators, such as chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen, have deteriorated to varying degrees. Second, the results also reveal that improper development ideas, industrial excessive expansion, and the swing of economic growth and environmental goals are problems after the adjustment. Returning to the original intention of adjustment, rationalizing the Chaohu Lake management system and designing a sound and feasible accountability mechanism are fundamental measures to reduce pollution.

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