Analysis of the tone of discussions at the decision-making meetings of the Monetary Policy Council

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 72-85
Author(s):  
Wirginia Doryń
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
European Union ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
The European Union ◽  
National Bank

Communiqués of central bank are an important complement to the monetary policy instruments. The aim of the article is to present the results of the quantitative study of the tone of official communiqués in English of the National Bank of Poland, which are descriptions of discussions at the decision-making meetings of the Monetary Policy Council published in the years 2007—2017. The list of words developed by Bennani and Neuenkirch (2017) was used to evaluate the tone. Determined measures of tone were compared with economic indicators. It was found that the sentiment of NBP’s communiqués quite strongly correlates with the survey measures of the business tendency and to a lesser extent with the index of sold production of industry, having a leading nature of 2 months in relation to these indicators. The obtained results also indicate a significant relationship between the tone of the NBP’s statements and the business tendency in Germany, the euro area countries and the European Union.

scholarly journals Recent Patterns of Economic Alignment in the European (Monetary) Union

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 362
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Gehringer ◽  
Jörg König
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
The Common

This paper studies the process of business cycle synchronization in the European Union and the euro area. As our baseline methodology we adopt rolling window correlation coefficients of various economic indicators, observed since 2000. Among the indicators, we distinguish between real economic indicators, like the real GDP growth and unemployment, and nominal indicators, like inflation and government budget. Given the direct implication of this kind of analysis for the common monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), special attention is paid to the pattern of business cycle synchronization in the core and peripheral members of the euro area. Our analysis of quarterly data covering the first two decades of the euro area shows that there was a certain synchronization tendency in the first years of the common currency. However, the European debt crisis halted the economic integration within the European Union and—even more so—within the euro area. Since the ECB can to a large extent intervene only with “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy instruments, this renders increasingly cumbersome the conduct of stabilisation policies within the euro area.

Dramatis Institutiones

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Randall Henning
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European Central ◽  
Regime Complex ◽  
Basic Facts ◽  
Institutional Conflict

The regime complex for crisis finance in the euro area included the European Council, Council of the European Union, and Eurogroup in addition to the three institutions of the troika. As the member states acted largely, though not exclusively, through the council system, these bodies stood at the center of the institutional mix. This chapter reviews the institutions as a prelude to examining the dilemmas that confronted them over the course of the crises. It presents a brief review of some of the basic facts about their origins, membership, and organization. Each section then delves more deeply into these institutions’ governance and principles to understand their capabilities and strategic challenges. As a consequence of different mandates and design, the European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund diverged with respect to their approach to financing, adjustment, conditionality, and debt sustainability. This divergence set the stage for institutional conflict in the country programs.

scholarly journals Can inflation forecast and monetary policy path be really useful? The case of the Czech Republic

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko ◽  
Karolina Tura
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Parametric Statistics

Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.

scholarly journals ROMANIAN INTERBANK INTEREST RATES AND CENTRAL BANK’S MONETARY POLICY

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 487-506
Author(s):  
Giovanni Verga ◽  
Nicoleta Vasilcovschi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European System ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
Main Determinants

Interbank rates are affected by the monetary policy of a country and represent a link to other financial and credit markets. In 2007, Romania became a member of the European Union and its central bank, the National Bank of Romania (NBR), joined the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) but not the Eurosystem. This paper analyses the role of the central bank and the use of its instruments concerning interbank rates. The research evaluates the influence of the Romanian Central Bank on interbank rates and shows that the policy rate and bank liquidity are among the main determinants of interbank rate movements. It is also presented that the NBR’s deposit and lending rates can limit the free movements of the interbank rate of interest. This research confirms that interbank interest rates influence bank rates strongly. The methodology used in this research includes cointegration, dynamic econometric measurement and analyses with Granger causality. Our research uses mainly ROBID and ROBOR of different maturities, showing that the influence of the Romanian Central Bank (NBR) on the interbank rate is strong, while the influence of the ECB and Fed is weak.

Hungary’s rising prices may shift monetary policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
National Bank

Significance The sharp slide in the forint is fuelling inflationary pressures, testing the resolve of the National Bank (MNB -- the central bank) to continue providing stimulus to the economy. Despite a surge in core inflation in Hungary to 3.8%, the MNB is using this year’s dovish U-turns by the ECB and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as cover to keep monetary policy ultra-loose. Impacts The dollar index is strengthening despite the dovish U-turn by the Fed and is putting an end to the sharp rally in EM currencies in January. Inflationary pressures will be muted across the euro-area, with core inflation falling to 0.8% in March, less than half the ECB’s target. PMIs show Czech and Polish manufacturing sectors continuing to contract and Hungarian growth at its weakest level since 2016.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vesna Martin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Main Regulator

Abstract The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

scholarly journals Polityka pieniężna Narodowego Banku Polskiego od roku 1989

2015 ◽  
pp. 173-192
Author(s):  
Paweł Franka ◽  
Anna Wisz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Open Market ◽  
The Past ◽  
National Bank

The article discusses the activities of National Bank of Poland during the past twenty-five year and more specifically in the years 1989–2013 with particular emphasis on monetary policy. During this time, the Polish central bank has undergone fundamental change, starting from the position of the so-called monobank, i.e. bank without autonomy in activities, characteristic of planned economy. The article describes the process of transformation of the National Bank of Poland to the role of a central bank operating in a market economy. The paper emphasizes all the important events in the transformation, including building of a two-tier banking system, the gradual replacement of the administrative measures by monetary policy instruments, currency denomination, constitutional guarantees of the role and independence of the National Bank of Poland, creation of the Monetary Policy Council – a departure from the single monetary policy-making in favor of collegiality, changing the monetary policy strategy to direct inflation targeting, bank exchange rates policy, open market operations.

scholarly journals PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE OF THE CENTRAL BANKS ON THE EXAMPLE OF BULGARIA, CROATIA, HUNGARY AND ROMANIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miloš Stanić ◽  
Stefan Andonović
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Legal Norms ◽  
The Social ◽  
National Bank

The central bank represents institution that creates and implements monetary policy and has great impact on proper functioning of state and citizens and their welfare. Bearing in mind their role in society, it is of outmost importance to properly regulate their status and functions, especially in the field of ensuring their independence. As a matter of fact, over the last few decades, theory and practice have come to such opinion that is necessary to do so. Accordingly, the main subject of this paper is the analysis of the legal framework that enables the personal independence of central banks. Independence has several aspects. By using a comparative legal and normative method, on the example of four European countries from the region, which were members of the former communist bloc and are now members of the European Union, authors tried to find out certain legal solutions within these countries regarding personal independence of national bank management structures. Specifically, legal solutions are being explored in Hungary, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. Personal independence concerns issues related to the appointment of top central bank officials, and the duration of their mandate, as well as the conditions for their dismissal. The aim is to determine their common characteristics and at the same time the authors give some appropriate critical considerations. These countries were chosen because, in the historical and social sense, they went through what Serbia is going through in the process of joining the European Union. Also, it is assumed that they have met certain standards by joining the EU. It has to be noted that the goals guaranteed and proclaimed by legal norms do not always have to be achieved in practice. A special focus in the paper is made on the issue of personal independence of central banks in relation to the centers of political power. As a result of the analysis, the authors were free to address the fact that an appropriate legal framework is the first and necessary step towards achieving the proclaimed goals of independence. At the same time, however, one must be aware that this is the first step towards achieving real central bank independence. Also, we will add that the entire process of building personal independence takes time and it certainly cannot be obtained by a legal norm. This is where the social justification of the scientific study of this topic is reflected, because it encourages the development of awareness of the importance of this topic, as well as the development of critical thinking about it.

scholarly journals ROLE OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK IN COMBATING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Justyna Maliszewska-Nienartowicz ◽  
Amanda Witulska
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European Central

This work presents the  European Central Bank’s role in eliminating economic crisis in the European Union. It contains roots and course of the financial slowdown in the eurozone. The Authors show competences of the institution before and its functions during the crisis. Finally, there was made an attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of the ECB monetary policy.

Decision-Making at the Summit

2000 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 79-105
Author(s):  
Alan Dashwood
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
European Union ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Intermediate Stage ◽  
European Council ◽  
The Political ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Heads Of State ◽  
Treaty Of Amsterdam

Various provisions of the Treaty on European Union (“TEU”) and of the EC Treaty specifically require action to be taken, at the definitive stage or at some preparatory or intermediate stage of decision-making, by the European Council, or by the Council of the European Union meeting in the composition of Heads of State or Government (“the HSG Council”); and there is one instance of an appointing power exercisable by an intergovernmental conference at the level of Heads of State or Government (“an HSG Conference”). Reserving a role for the political leaders of the Union in the adoption of particular decisions was an innovation of the TEU, more especially in the Title of the EC Treaty on economic and monetary policy, and further instances have been added by the Treaty of Amsterdam (“TA”) and the Treaty of Nice (“TN”).

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