RISK ASSESSMENT OF ARCTIC NAVIGATION BY USING IMPROVED FUZZY-AHP APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 157 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
B Sahin ◽  
S Kum
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Global Logistics ◽  
Geographical Position ◽  
Arctic Navigation ◽  
Hull Damage ◽  
Hierarchy Process

In this study, navigational risk factors of the Arctic Ocean are defined and numerical weights of each risk are obtained by using Improved Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (IF-AHP) method after conducting expert consultations. The Northern Sea Route shortens the maritime distance approximately 7000 nautical miles comparing to the conventional Suez Canal route. Therefore, it takes a significant role of being economic and time advantage for global logistics. Its geographical position, presence of ice, heavy weather conditions, strong currents and winds are some risks for Arctic transportation. There always have the possibility of unpredictable catastrophes such as a collision, grounding, hull damage and etc. in this region. Reflections of such unwanted incidents might be very costly for economic, political, environmental and safety concerns. Due to there are limited academic studies regarding to analytical and systematical risk identification and determination of risk levels, this study contributes to complete this academic gap.

Risk Assessment of Arctic Navigation by using Improved Fuzzy-AHP Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 157 (A4) ◽  
pp. 241-250 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Global Logistics ◽  
Geographical Position ◽  
Arctic Navigation ◽  
Hull Damage ◽  
Hierarchy Process

"In this study, navigational risk factors of the Arctic Ocean are defined and numerical weights of each risk are obtained by using Improved Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (IF-AHP) method after conducting expert consultations. The Northern Sea Route shortens the maritime distance approximately 7000 nautical miles comparing to the conventional Suez Canal route. Therefore, it takes a significant role of being economic and time advantage for global logistics. Its geographical position, presence of ice, heavy weather conditions, strong currents and winds are some risks for Arctic transportation. There always have the possibility of unpredictable catastrophes such as a collision, grounding, hull damage and etc. in this region. Reflections of such unwanted incidents might be very costly for economic, political, environmental and safety concerns. Due to there are limited academic studies regarding to analytical and systematical risk identification and determination of risk levels, this study contributes to complete this academic gap."

scholarly journals Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Li ◽  
Patrick Zou
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
Ahp Method ◽  
The Public ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Project Life ◽  
Hierarchy Process

To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP) has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP). First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

scholarly journals Fuzzy AHP Integrated with GIS Analyses for Drought Risk Assessment: A Case Study from Upper Phetchaburi River Basin, Thailand

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 939 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saowanee Wijitkosum ◽  
Thavivongse Sriburi
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Land Utilization ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
Hierarchy Process

This study aimed to analyse and assess desertification risks in the Upper Phetchaburi River Basin. Upstream areas are especially crucial for aquatic ecosystems since the mid- and downstream areas are continuously being utilized for agricultural and community purposes. Many parts of the basin have been at moderate risk of drought. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is an effective and widely accepted model used to identify complicated environmental problems and disasters and prioritize factors in environmental studies. This study emphasized on four main factors influencing drought: Climate, physical factors, soil and land utilization factors. Each factor contains ten sub-criteria to identify severity levels and specific issues. The major areas of the basin were facing different risk levels: moderate (21%), high (5.79%) and severe (0.07%). Precipitation and slope gradient were the main factors affecting drought risks. The problematic areas were agricultural areas located in midstream and downstream areas. Therefore, spatial mitigations and possible ways forward should focus on increasing moisture contents—to reduce soil erosion and enhance soil fertility—and create restrictions to ensure appropriate land use. The mitigations must take into account spatially critical factors and must also include an integrated plan for the entire basin area.

Key Factors Influencing the Building of Arctic Shipping Routes

2016 ◽  
Vol 69 (6) ◽  
pp. 1261-1277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Hwa Shyu ◽  
Ji-Feng Ding
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Ahp Model ◽  
Empirical Survey ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Arctic Shipping ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Arctic shipping routes attract more and more attention because of the increasing possibility to build commercial shipping routes which connect East Asia and Western Europe. To build profitable commercial shipping routes, shipping companies should study many issues about the Arctic carefully since it is a new and unfamiliar frontier. To find out key factors influencing the building of Arctic shipping routes, the authors applied the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model in this study. Based on the AHP experts’ questionnaires, we applied the fuzzy AHP model to analyse the opinions of respondents. This article presents the results of an empirical survey conducted among shipping companies and academic researchers with ship captain experience to explore their attitudes toward the building of Arctic shipping routes. The findings showed that: ‘Safety and risk’ is the most important aspect affecting the building of Arctic shipping routes and in order of relative importance, the top six critical assessment factors are ‘navigation safety and risk analysis,’ ‘governance and cooperation,’ ‘navigation information,’ ‘cargo sources,’ ‘cost,’ and ‘navigator ability,’ respectively.

scholarly journals ANALISIS RISIKO BENCANA GEMPABUMI DI WILAYAH NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Melki Adi Kurniawan ◽  
Komang Ngurah Suarbawa ◽  
Ardhianto Septiadhi
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Earthquake Disaster ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Index Calculation

An investigation of risk identification earthquake disaster in Nusa Tenggara Barat by three factors: the danger factor of earthquakes is Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA), vulnerability factor is population density by district, as well as the capasity factors are HDI (Human Development Index) by district in the province of West Nusa Tenggara has be done. PGA value calculation was performed using the attenuation function Fukushima and Tanaka with earthquake parameter data from 1970 - 2014 with the criteria of magnitude ? 4.5mB, depth ? 60 km and the epicenter in the range of 7.5o - 12o and 115o-120o BT and  for disaster risk index calculation earthquake using AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process). From the calculation of the obtained regions with earthquake disaster risk levels are highest are southern Dompu, Mataram, Bima, northern Bima Regency while the lowest West Sumbawa regency and southern Sumbawa regency.

On Moderate Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Pairwise Comparison Model With Subcriteria

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
G. Marimuthu ◽  
G. Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Decision Models ◽  
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Comparison Model ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Decisions usually involve the getting the best solution, selecting the suitable experiments, most appropriate judgments, taking the quality results etc., using some techniques.  Every decision making can be considered as the choice from the set of alternatives based on a set of criteria.  The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is a multi-criteria decision making and is dealing with decision making problems through pairwise comparisons mode [10].  The weight vectors from this comparison model are obtained by using extent analysis method.  This paper concern with an alternate method of finding the weight vectors from the original fuzzy AHP decision model (moderate fuzzy AHP model), that has the same rank as obtained in original fuzzy AHP and ideal fuzzy AHP decision models.

The Visibility of Stars during Twilight

1957 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Millman
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Compass ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
The Moon ◽  
Heavenly Body ◽  
Flight Planning ◽  
Arctic Navigation

One of the problems in arctic navigation by astro is the twilight period. At this time, if the Moon is below the horizon, suitable objects for sextant observation are not easy to find. The difficulty is aggravated by the fact that on certain flight paths the arctic twilight may last for many hours. It must also be remembered that in these areas the behaviour of the magnetic compass and of radio aids are often unreliable and this increases the relative importance of astro-navigation. With the introduction of the periscopic sextant into air navigation it has become possible to pre-set the instrument for a given star or planet and satisfactory observations may be possible when the heavenly body is still below the level of casual perception for the unaided eye. In this connection it is necessary to know what stars are likely to be seen under twilight conditions if efficient flight-planning is to be carried out.

scholarly journals Facility location selection for the furniture industry of Bangladesh: Comparative AHP and FAHP analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 184797902110308
Author(s):  
Md Nazmul Hasan Suman ◽  
Nagib MD Sarfaraj ◽  
Fuad Ahmed Chyon ◽  
Md Rafiul Islsm Fahim
Keyword(s):  
Facility Location ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Facility Location Problem ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Energy Availability ◽  
Furniture Industry ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Location Selection ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The furniture industry is growing to a great extent in Bangladesh. Many market researchers believe that the industry has enormous potentiality. However, the expansion of this industry may face complexities within a few years. Due to the wrong selection of facilities, many organizations failed to earn profit as expected. It also needs a large investment. Selecting a suitable place for a new facility is going to be the biggest question of upcoming years. This study aimed to analyze Bangladesh’s furniture industry, address the facility location problem, and provide a constructive solution to the decision-makers. In this study, seven criteria were considered: availability of raw materials, transportations, skilled labor, proximity to customers, energy availability, economic zone facility, and environmental impact, and five ideal locations or alternatives: Khulna, Chattogram, Bogura, Gazipur, and Manikganj. Thirty-four experts took part in the survey to analyze the significant criteria for selecting a furniture industry’s facility location and alternatives or potential locations for the facility. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy AHP methods (FAHP), two MCDM techniques, were used to analyze the data set. A sensitivity analysis was done to determine the model’s robustness for any critical changes in the real world. The result showed that ‘energy availability is the most significant criterion to select a facility location for the furniture industry, where it got 35.1% criteria weight in AHP and 33.9% in FAHP. ‘Chattogram’ was selected as the most suitable place containing 33.74% normalized weight in AHP and 33.81% normalized weight in FAHP.

scholarly journals An exemplary case of a bromine explosion event linked to cyclone development in the Arctic

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1773-1788 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.-M. Blechschmidt ◽  
A. Richter ◽  
J. P. Burrows ◽  
L. Kaleschke ◽  
K. Strong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Air Stream ◽  
Combined Use ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Development Duration

Abstract. Intense, cyclone-like shaped plumes of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) are regularly observed by GOME-2 on board the MetOp-A satellite over Arctic sea ice in polar spring. These plumes are often transported by high-latitude cyclones, sometimes over several days despite the short atmospheric lifetime of BrO. However, only few studies have focused on the role of polar weather systems in the development, duration and transport of tropospheric BrO plumes during bromine explosion events. The latter are caused by an autocatalytic chemical chain reaction associated with tropospheric ozone depletion and initiated by the release of bromine from cold brine-covered ice or snow to the atmosphere. In this manuscript, a case study investigating a comma-shaped BrO plume which developed over the Beaufort Sea and was observed by GOME-2 for several days is presented. By making combined use of satellite data and numerical models, it is shown that the occurrence of the plume was closely linked to frontal lifting in a polar cyclone and that it most likely resided in the lowest 3 km of the troposphere. In contrast to previous case studies, we demonstrate that the dry conveyor belt, a potentially bromine-rich stratospheric air stream which can complicate interpretation of satellite retrieved tropospheric BrO, is spatially separated from the observed BrO plume. It is concluded that weather conditions associated with the polar cyclone favoured the bromine activation cycle and blowing snow production, which may have acted as a bromine source during the bromine explosion event.

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