A Model for Improving Guesses of Future Soccer League Game Results

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21
Author(s):  
Sharon Garyn-Tal ◽  
Nissim Ben-David
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Home Team ◽  
Soccer Game ◽  
Prediction Confidence ◽  
The One

In this paper we propose a model for predicting future soccer game results by using information about the results of past league games. First, from regressions we extracted the prediction confidence interval for the goal difference between the winner and the loser in each game. Second, we created an arbitrary range around zero and defined criteria for forecasting a win, a tie or a loss according to the location of the confidence interval relative to the arbitrary range we defined. Third, we gradually changed the edges of the arbitrary range and repeated the second step. Among all the arbitrary ranges, we chose the one that best predicted the match results. We found that the best arbitrary range accurately predicts 52% of the match results. Finally, we upgraded the model by allowing double chance betting, which offers gamblers five possible betting options: home team wins (1), home team wins or game ends in a tie (1 and X), away team wins (2), away team wins or game ends in a tie (2 and X), game ends in a tie (X).  When double chance betting was allowed, the model accurately predicted 77% of the match results.

scholarly journals INFLUENCE OF STIFFNESS RELATED TO THE C40 STRENGTH CLASS OF THE HARDWOOD GROUP ESTABLISHED BY THE BRAZILIAN STANDARD IN THE DESIGN OF TIMBER STRUCTURES

Wood Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 582-594
Author(s):  
FRANCISCO ANTONIO ROCCO LAHR ◽  
VINICIUS BORGES DE MOURA AQUINO ◽  
FELIPE NASCIMENTO ARROYO ◽  
HERISSON FERREIRA DOS SANTOS ◽  
SERGIO AUGUSTO MELLO SILVA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compressive Strength ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Strength Characteristic ◽  
Structural Design ◽  
Strength Class ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Timber Structures ◽  
Average Confidence ◽  
The One ◽  
Brazilian Standard

The Brazilian standard ABNT 7190 (1997) establishes the strength classes C20, C30, C40 and C60 for the proper framework of the different wood types in the group of hardwoods. Associated with the strength class, which is based on the compressive strength characteristic value parallel to the fibers (fc0,k), the standard stipulates the respective values representing the stiffness (Ec0), with 19500 MPa being the reference value for the class C40, essential variables in structural design. For being the C40 class is the one with the greatest amplitude (20 MPa), it is possible that the value 19500 MPa is not the best representation of stiffness. This work aimed to verify the representativeness the stiffness value established by the Brazilian standard for C40 wood. The result obtained from the average confidence interval indicates the value of 14110 MPa as being the most representative, which may imply structures that are supposedly more rigid than they really are.

scholarly journals An Automated Method for the Quantification and Fractal Analysis of Immunostaining

2004 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-134
Author(s):  
Armin Gerger ◽  
Patrick Bergthaler ◽  
Josef Smolle
Keyword(s):  
Fractal Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Description ◽  
Fractal Dimensionality ◽  
Texture Features ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Digital Information ◽  
Automated Method ◽  
Reliable Classification ◽  
The One

Aims. In tissue counter analysis (TCA) digital images of complex histologic sections are dissected into elements of equal size and shape, and digital information comprising grey level, colour and texture features is calculated for each element. In this study we assessed the feasibility of TCA for the quantitative description of amount and also of distribution of immunostained material. Methods. In a first step, our system was trained for differentiating between background and tissue on the one hand and between immunopositive and so‐called other tissue on the other. In a second step, immunostained slides were automatically screened and the procedure was tested for the quantitative description of amount of cytokeratin (CK) and leukocyte common antigen (LCA) immunopositive structures. Additionally, fractal analysis was applied to all cases describing the architectural distribution of immunostained material. Results. The procedure yielded reproducible assessments of the relative amounts of immunopositive tissue components when the number and percentage of CK and LCA stained structures was assessed. Furthermore, a reliable classification of immunopositive patterns was found by means of fractal dimensionality. Conclusions. Tissue counter analysis combined with classification trees and fractal analysis is a fully automated and reproducible approach for the quantitative description in immunohistology.

The Means and Mode of Salvation: A Hermeneutical Proposal for Clarifying Pauline Soteriology

2007 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-222
Author(s):  
Peter Frick
Keyword(s):  
Second Step ◽  
Human Response ◽  
The One

AbstractThe objective of this study is to answer the question "What is the cause of salvation?" according to Paul. The argument is that just as Philo understood cause in an Aristotelian sense of the multiplicity of causes (formal, material, efficient and final) as constituting one overarching cause—what is here called the "means" of salvation—so, too, Paul implicitly assumes that the one cause or "means" of salvation consists in various causes. A second step shows how the "means" of salvation corresponds to faith as the "mode" of salvation. In nuce, the "means" of salvation is the initiative of God and the "mode" of salvation is the human response to that divine initiative.

Study of the development of the internal organs of the double malformations of Chironomus dorsalis by fixed and sectioned materials

Development ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-303
Author(s):  
Hideo Yajima
Keyword(s):  
Ventral Side ◽  
Dorsal Side ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Convex Side ◽  
Internal Organs ◽  
Flat Side ◽  
Internal Structures ◽  
Pole Cells ◽  
The One ◽  
Thoracic And Abdominal

The development of the internal structures was investigated by fixed sections of the ‘double cephalon’ and ‘double abdomen’ of Chironomus dorsalis. The cell proliferation that gives rise to ‘germ Anlage’ or embryonic rudiment begins, in the double cephalon, along the entire convex (ventral) side of the egg and, in the double abdomen, at both ends of the flat (dorsal) side. As a result, a single fused Anlage of the double cephalon appears along the entire convex side of the egg and two germ Anlagen of the double abdomen appear at both ends of the flat side. During the formation of the germ band, both the posteriormost part of the double cephalon which lies at the middle of the convex side of the egg and the anteriormost part of the double abdomen which is located at the middle of the convex side, fail to differentiate and later degenerate. In each of the duplicated heads of double cephalon, cephalic segments anterior to the first maxillary segment are formed, but the thoracic and abdominal segments are entirely missing. In each half of the double abdomen, eight abdominal segments posterior to the second abdominal segment are produced and the cephalic and thoracic segments are omitted altogether. The two pairs of mid-gut rudiment from both halves of the double cephalon are temporarily united but they break apart by the end of the blastokinesis. When the two pairs of mid-gut rudiment from both halves of the double abdomen meet, they remain fused with each other, being surrounded by the visceral mesodermal cells in the normal way, and develop into the mid-gut epithelium. In the double malformations, the pole cells are contained in only one member of the duplicated structures. The pole cells of the double cephalon develop into the tetra-nucleate state (Hasper's second step), but they fail to fuse to form tte gonad. In the double abdomen, the gonad develops in the one abdomen containing the pole colls and no replacement occurs in the sister abdomen without the pole cells. The embryonic envelopes of the double cephalon do no' retract into the interior of the embryo, while they do in the normal way in the double abdomen. The double cephalon can never hatch but the double abdon en can emerge.

scholarly journals The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Nishiura ◽  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Ryo Kinoshita ◽  
Yichi Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
The One ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.

More than a Person

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Matthias Remenyi
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Divine Providence ◽  
Divine Action ◽  
Concept Of God ◽  
Truth Claim ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The One

The question whether God should be thought of as personal or a-personal is closely linked to the issue of an appropriate model of God-world relation on the one hand and the question how to conceive divine action on the other hand. Starting with a discussion of the scientific character of theology, this article critically examines the univocal-personal concept of God. Traditional Christian conceptions of God have, however, always acknowledged a radical asymmetry between the personal existence of created beings and the ground of being itself. In a second step, the ontological truth claim associated with this way of speaking about God is being related to its methodological consequences. In final step, attention is given to the relation of immanence and transcendence as it is defended in different versions of panentheism: As an alternative to divine interventionism, panentheism can be shown to explicate divine providence as formal and final causation.

scholarly journals One-year efficacy and safety of the Trufill DCS Orbit and Orbit Galaxy detachable coils in the endovascular treatment of intracranial aneurysms: Results from the TRULINE study

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 485-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Gory ◽  
Laure Huot ◽  
Roberto Riva ◽  
Paul E Labeyrie ◽  
Olivier Levrier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Data Safety Monitoring Board ◽  
Endovascular Coiling ◽  
Independent Evaluation ◽  
Detachable Coils ◽  
One Year ◽  
Intent To Treat ◽  
The One

Background and purpose No series reported the mid-term results of Trufill DCS Orbit and Orbit Galaxy detachable coils with independent evaluation. We present the one-year safety and efficacy of these coils in real-life routine clinical practice. Methods A total of 167 patients with 167 aneurysms (39.1% ruptured) were enrolled in the prospective TRULINE study. The primary endpoint was the safety, assessed by the combined morbidity-mortality rate observed since the time of the procedure and up to one-year follow-up. For safety, primary analyses were performed on intent-to-treat population (attempted coils procedure) and all adverse events have been reviewed by an independent Data Safety Monitoring Board. For efficacy, primary analyses were performed on the per-protocol population (patients treated with more than 70% of Trufill coils and not retreated during the follow-up period) and an independent core laboratory evaluated angiographic results. Results At one-year post-procedure, neurologic impairment was observed in 6.5% (95% confidence interval: 3.5–11.8) of the patients, and 2.6% (95% confidence interval: 1.0–6.8) had a permanent neurological deterioration. Three deaths were observed, unrelated to the procedure or coils. At one year, complete occlusion was seen in 52 aneurysms (54.2%), neck remnant in 28 aneurysms (29.2%), and aneurysm remnant in 16 aneurysms (16.7%). During the one-year follow-up, the overall incidence of recurrence was 30.2% with a mean interval of 13.8 ± 4.5 months and the retreatment for major recanalization was needed in nine patients (6.3%). Conclusions The TRULINE study confirms that endovascular coiling with Trufill DCS Orbit and Orbit Galaxy detachable coils is safe and effective.

GENTLEMEN PREFER LIQUIDITY: EVIDENCE FROM KEYNES

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
SYLVIE RIVOT
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
The One ◽  
Monetary Assets ◽  
Weakly Dependent

This paper deals with the concept of liquidity in Keynes’ theoretical and political writings. First of all, liquidity, according to Keynes, is a concept much more comprehensive than commonly held nowadays: for Keynes, liquidity means more than an easy convertibility, a high marketability (land might have been highly liquid in ancient times). In short, an asset is highly liquid when its value is weakly dependent on a change in our long-term state of expectations. In a second step, this reassessment of liquidity is applied to Keynes’ political writings, in particular to monetary policy and also to the ‘buffer-stock’ scheme. On the one hand, our investigation shows that in a context of ‘uncertainty,’ monetary policy basically aims to encourage the private sector to have confidence in long-term expectations. Private wealth owners should accordingly ask for lower and lower ‘liquidity premium.’ On the other hand, Keynes’ ‘buffer stocks’ of commodities are not intended for a direct control of prices. Rather, their proper purpose is to confer more liquidity to commodities; i.e., to transform them to ‘monetary assets.’ All in all, monetary policy and buffer-stocks schemes prove to be two basic rationales of Keynes’ concept of liquidity still worth being investigated—today as before.

Mechanical Behavior of Aged Ti-15V-3Cr-3Sn-3Al Alloy

2013 ◽  
Vol 378 ◽  
pp. 82-86
Author(s):  
Ying Kai Chou ◽  
Leu Wen Tsay ◽  
Ying Chiao Wang ◽  
Chun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Tensile Strength ◽  
Mechanical Behavior ◽  
Aging Treatment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Minor Effect ◽  
One Step ◽  
Notched Tensile Strength ◽  
The One ◽  
A Minor

The effect of aging treatments on the mechanical behavior of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Sn-3Al (Ti153) alloy was evaluated in the present study. Properties of the two-step aged specimens were also compared with those of the one-step aged specimens. The second aging treatment, which was performed at 426o°C for 24 h, apparently raised the tensile strength at the expense of the notched tensile strength for the specimens previously aged at 426°C or below. On the other hand, the second-step aging had a minor effect on further hardening of the specimens prior to aging at 538°C and 593°C. In general, theJ-integral value (fracture toughness) had the same trend as that of the notch brittleness of the specimens. Overall, the specimens subjected to the two-step aging treatment did not show any advantage over the specimens subject to one-step aging treatment.

Moment of inertia of even–even proton-rich nuclei using a particle-number conserving approach in the isovector neutron–proton pairing case

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (06) ◽  
pp. 1650032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faiza Hammache ◽  
N. H. Allal ◽  
M. Fellah ◽  
M. R. Oudih
Keyword(s):  
Particle Number ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Moment Of Inertia ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Nuclear Moment ◽  
Pairing Effect ◽  
Picket Fence ◽  
Projection Effect ◽  
The One ◽  
Proton Pairing

An expression of the particle-number projected nuclear moment of inertia (MOI) has been established in the neutron–proton (np) isovector pairing case within the cranking model. It generalizes the one obtained in the like-particles pairing case. The formalism has been, as a first step, applied to the picket-fence model. As a second step, it has been applied to deformed even–even nuclei such as [Formula: see text] and of which the experimentally deduced values of the pairing gap parameters [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], are known. The single-particle energies and eigenstates used are those of a deformed Woods–Saxon mean-field. It was shown, in both models, that the np pairing effect and the projection one are non-negligible. In realistic cases, it also appears that the np pairing effect strongly depends on [Formula: see text], whereas the projection effect is practically independent from the same quantity.

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