scholarly journals The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Nishiura ◽  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Ryo Kinoshita ◽  
Yichi Yang ◽  
...  

A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.

2021 ◽  
pp. 239719832110340
Author(s):  
Yasser A Radwan ◽  
Reto D Kurmann ◽  
Avneek S Sandhu ◽  
Edward A El-Am ◽  
Cynthia S Crowson ◽  
...  

Objectives: To study the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of conduction and rhythm disorders in a population-based cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis versus nonsystemic sclerosis comparators. Methods: An incident cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (1980–2016) from Olmsted County, MN, was compared to age- and sex-matched nonsystemic sclerosis subjects (1:2). Electrocardiograms, Holter electrocardiograms, and a need for cardiac interventions were reviewed to determine the occurrence of any conduction or rhythm abnormalities. Results: Seventy-eight incident systemic sclerosis cases and 156 comparators were identified (mean age 56 years, 91% female). The prevalence of any conduction disorder before systemic sclerosis diagnosis compared to nonsystemic sclerosis subjects was 15% versus 7% ( p = 0.06), and any rhythm disorder was 18% versus 13% ( p = 0.33). During a median follow-up of 10.5 years in patients with systemic sclerosis and 13.0 years in nonsystemic sclerosis comparators, conduction disorders developed in 25 patients with systemic sclerosis with cumulative incidence of 20.5% (95% confidence interval: 12.4%–34.1%) versus 28 nonsystemic sclerosis patients with cumulative incidence of 10.4% (95% confidence interval: 6.2%–17.4%) (hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% confidence interval: 1.48–4.45), while rhythm disorders developed in 27 patients with systemic sclerosis with cumulative incidence of 27.3% (95% confidence interval: 17.9%–41.6%) versus 43 nonsystemic sclerosis patients with cumulative incidence of 18.0% (95% confidence interval: 12.3%–26.4%) (hazard ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.00–2.64). Age, pulmonary hypertension, and smoking were identified as risk factors. Conclusion: Patients with systemic sclerosis have an increased risk of conduction and rhythm disorders both at disease onset and over time, compared to nonsystemic sclerosis patients. These findings warrant increased vigilance and screening for electrocardiogram abnormalities in systemic sclerosis patients with pulmonary hypertension.


Wood Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 582-594
Author(s):  
FRANCISCO ANTONIO ROCCO LAHR ◽  
VINICIUS BORGES DE MOURA AQUINO ◽  
FELIPE NASCIMENTO ARROYO ◽  
HERISSON FERREIRA DOS SANTOS ◽  
SERGIO AUGUSTO MELLO SILVA ◽  
...  

The Brazilian standard ABNT 7190 (1997) establishes the strength classes C20, C30, C40 and C60 for the proper framework of the different wood types in the group of hardwoods. Associated with the strength class, which is based on the compressive strength characteristic value parallel to the fibers (fc0,k), the standard stipulates the respective values representing the stiffness (Ec0), with 19500 MPa being the reference value for the class C40, essential variables in structural design. For being the C40 class is the one with the greatest amplitude (20 MPa), it is possible that the value 19500 MPa is not the best representation of stiffness. This work aimed to verify the representativeness the stiffness value established by the Brazilian standard for C40 wood. The result obtained from the average confidence interval indicates the value of 14110 MPa as being the most representative, which may imply structures that are supposedly more rigid than they really are.


Circulation ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 128 (13) ◽  
pp. 1412-1419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinela Rushani ◽  
Jay S. Kaufman ◽  
Raluca Ionescu-Ittu ◽  
Andrew S. Mackie ◽  
Louise Pilote ◽  
...  

Background— The American Heart Association guidelines for prevention of infective endocarditis (IE) in 2007 reduced the groups of congenital heart disease (CHD) patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis was indicated. The evidence base in CHD patients is limited. We sought to determine the risk of IE in children with CHD. Methods and Results— We performed a population-based analysis to determine the cumulative incidence and predictors of IE in children (0–18 years) with CHD by the use of the Quebec CHD Database from 1988 to 2010. In 47 518 children with CHD followed for 458 109 patient-years, 185 cases of IE were observed. Cumulative incidence of IE was estimated in the subset of 34 279 children with CHD followed since birth, in whom the risk of IE up to 18 years of age was 6.1/1000 children (95% confidence interval, 5.0–7.5). In a nested case-control analysis, the following CHD lesions were at highest risk of IE in comparison with atrial septal defects (adjusted rate ratio, 95% confidence interval): cyanotic CHD (6.44, 3.95–10.50), endocardial cushion defects (5.47, 2.89–10.36), and left-sided lesions (1.88, 1.01–3.49). Cardiac surgery within 6 months (5.34, 2.49–11.43) and an age of <3 years (3.53, 2.51–4.96; reference, ages 6–18) also conferred an elevated risk of IE. Conclusions— In a large population-based cohort of children with CHD, we documented the cumulative incidence of IE and associated factors. These findings help identify groups of patients who are at the highest risk of developing IE.


2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 179-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAVEL D. NASELSKY ◽  
OLEG V. VERKHODANOV

We present the analysis of the quadrupole phases of the Internal Linear Combination map, ILC(I) and (III), derived by the WMAP team (one- and three-year data release). This approach allows us to see the global trend of non-Gaussianity of the quadrupoles for the ILC(III) map through phase correlations with the foregrounds. Significant phase correlations are found between the ILC(III) quadrupole and the WMAP foreground phases for the K-W band: the phases of the ILC(III) quadrupole ξ2,1, ξ2,2 and those of the foregrounds at K–W bands Φ2,1, Φ2,2 display significant symmetry: ξ2,1 + Φ2,1 ≃ ξ2,2 + Φ2,2, which is a strong indication that the morphology of the ILC(III) quadrupole is a mere reflection of that the foreground quadrupole through coupling. To clarify this issue we exploit the symmetry of the CMB power, which is invariant under permutation of the index m = 1 ⇔ 2. By simple rotation of the ILC(III) phases with the same angle we reach the phases of the foreground quadrupole. We discuss possible sources of phase correlation and come to the conclusion that the phases of the ILC(III) quadrupole reflect most likely systematic effects such as changing of the gain factor for the three-year data release with respect to the one-year, rather than manifestation of the primordial non-Gaussianity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21
Author(s):  
Sharon Garyn-Tal ◽  
Nissim Ben-David

In this paper we propose a model for predicting future soccer game results by using information about the results of past league games. First, from regressions we extracted the prediction confidence interval for the goal difference between the winner and the loser in each game. Second, we created an arbitrary range around zero and defined criteria for forecasting a win, a tie or a loss according to the location of the confidence interval relative to the arbitrary range we defined. Third, we gradually changed the edges of the arbitrary range and repeated the second step. Among all the arbitrary ranges, we chose the one that best predicted the match results. We found that the best arbitrary range accurately predicts 52% of the match results. Finally, we upgraded the model by allowing double chance betting, which offers gamblers five possible betting options: home team wins (1), home team wins or game ends in a tie (1 and X), away team wins (2), away team wins or game ends in a tie (2 and X), game ends in a tie (X).  When double chance betting was allowed, the model accurately predicted 77% of the match results.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. p14
Author(s):  
Franck Amoussou ◽  
Nathalie J. A. Aguessy

The novel coronavirus is one of the most tragic epidemic diseases the world has ever faced thus far. Therefore, the governments of all countries have taken a range of measures against it. This article preforms a critical analysis on a political discourse, notably president Trump’s March 11, 2020 speech about the global pandemic. Using a multi- disciplinary approach as suggested by representatives of critical discourse analysis, it attempts to unpack or decipher the ideologies behind the discourse on the one hand, and to reveal how the discourse contributes to manipulating the public opinion through structural and contextual features of power and control, on the other hand.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (08) ◽  
pp. 4900-4907
Author(s):  
Arsalan Ahmed Uqaili ◽  
Marvi Gurbakhshani ◽  
Zahid Ali Shaikh ◽  
Imdad Ali Ansari ◽  
Keenjhar Gurbakhshani

Hepatotoxicity is historically the 3rd most common reason for drug withdrawal and toxicity-related discontinuation of treatment. This study was aimed at determining the incidence and the onset of hepatotoxicity and at evaluating the relationship of some risk factors for hepatotoxicity among Human Immunodeficiency Virus- (HIV-) positive, tuberculosis (TB), and HIV/TB patients on treatment. This was a prospective follow-up study involving 125 participants from the HIV/AIDS and TB treatment centres in Tertiary Care hospital of Larkana and Sukkur, Sindh. These TB and HIV patients were initiated on RHEZ (R = Rifampicin, H = Isoniazid, E = Ethambutol, and P = Pyrazinamide) and TELE (efavirenz/tenofovir/lamivudine), respectively, and followed up for 12 weeks between September 2018 and November 2019. The levels of liver enzymes (transaminases, gamma- glutamyltransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and unconjugated/total bilirubin) were measured spectrophotometrically using serum. The Chi-squared (χ2) test was used to assess the association between risk factors and hepatotoxicity, while the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with the log-rank test was used to determine the occurrence of hepatotoxicity in the different groups. We followed the general study population for a total person time of 6580 person-days, with an incidence rate and cumulative incidence of 8 cases per 1000 person-days (53/6580 person-days) and 42.4% (53/125), respectively (95% confidence interval), recorded after 12 weeks of follow-up of all the participants. The onset of hepatotoxicity in the total study population was statistically significant (χ2 = 9:5334; p = 0:022979; CI = 95%), with the majority observed at week eight of follow-up. Also, the incidence rate and cumulative incidence of hepatotoxicity with respect to HIV/AIDS, TB, and HIV/TB patients, respectively, at 95% confidence interval were: 8 cases per 1000 person-days (32/3843 person-days) and 32/76 (42.1%), 6 cases per 1000 person- days (12/1932 person-days) and 12/32 (37.5%), and 11 cases per 1000 person-days (9/805 person-days) and 9/17 (52.9%). This study shows that the incidence rate and cumulative incidence of hepatotoxicity in HIV/AIDS, TB, and HIV/TB patients on treatment were high . Also, it is very important to check these patients’ liver function especially within the first 12 weeks of treatment.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 3604-3604
Author(s):  
Hyacinthe Johnson-Ansah ◽  
Aude Charbonnier ◽  
Delphine Rea ◽  
Gabriel Etienne ◽  
Lydia Roy ◽  
...  

Abstract Aims Life expectancy of CML pts optimally responding to tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) is close to that of the general population and recently, TFR has been acknowledged as a new goal of CML management. TKI discontinuation in the view of TFR requires the achievement of deep and long-lasting molecular responses (MR). The gold standard BCR-ABL mRNA quantification technology and MR definitions rely on internationally standardized (IS) RT-qPCR but atypical transcripts located outside the Major-BCR region, harbored by 1-2% of pts, cannot be expressed on the IS scale. Thus, most trials and clinical practice recommendations prevent such pts from attempting TFR. The Fi-LMC group retrospectively collected real-life observations to assess TFR likelihood in this rare population. Methods Data from CML pts with precise characterization of atypical transcripts in whom any line TKI was stopped for any reason but after at least 2 years of undetectable molecular residual disease (UMRD) by individualized non-standardized RT-qPCR were collected. RT-qPCR sensitivity varied depending on transcript type and local molecular biology laboratory. TFS was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Relapse was analyzed using the cumulative incidence function, relapse being as UMRD loss at any time and any level during follow-up (FU). Results Our series comprised 16 adult CP CML pts with atypical BCR-ABL fusions including 12 males (75%). Median age at CML diagnosis was 56 years (range: 21-75) and that at TKI discontinuation was 67 years [range: 29-82]. Sokal score was low, intermediate and high in 7, 8 and 1 pts, respectively. ELTS score was low and intermediate in 10 and 4 pts, respectively and unknown in 2. Most pts expressed e19a2 (n=6) followed by e6a2 (n=4), b3a3 (n=3), b2a3 (n=2) and e8a2 (n=1). Seven pts discontinued imatinib, 4 stopped dasatinib, 4 nilotinib and 1 bosutinib. Number of lines of therapy was 2 in 8 pts, 1 in 5 pts and 3 in 3 pts. Median TKI treatment duration before discontinuation was 64 months (range: 31-218) and median duration of UMRD was 41 months (range: 21-168). The median FU after TKI discontinuation was 68 months (range: 3-149). Five pts experienced relapse leading to TKI resumption. Four relapses occurred within 3-6 months and included 2 loss of hematologic response in CP, 1 loss of hematologic response in accelerated phase CML and 1 molecular recurrence with BCR-ABL transcripts up to 1.5%. One relapse occurred at 49 months and consisted in loss of a complete cytogenetic response. These 5 pts resumed TKI and regained UMRD within 6 months, including 1 pt who died in UMRD from non-CML-related cause at the age of 82 years and 1 pt who rapidly failed a 2 nd TKI discontinuation attempt. In 1 additional pt, BCR-ABL transcripts became detectable intermittently with maximum transcript level of 0.15% and TKI was not resumed. The median FU of pts who remained treatment-free was 68 months (range: 8-149). Overall, the 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse regardless of whether TKI was resumed was 41.6% (95% confidence interval: 21.9%-78.7%) (Figure 1). The 5-year TFS rate was 65.2% (95% confidence interval: 40.3%-90.2%) (Figure 2). Conclusions Our observational study of TKI discontinuation in CML pts with atypical BCR-ABL transcripts is the largest reported so far. While effort must be made for proper assessment of deep MR, preliminary results suggest that TFS pattern might favorably compare with that obtained in pts with Major-type BCR-ABL transcripts. However, relapses may be more aggressive and caution is required in order to avoid loss of hematologic responses and progression. Whether the type of atypical fusion gene influences TKI discontinuation outcome, as well as other potential prognostic factors, need to be determined in a larger series. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Charbonnier: Novartis: Speakers Bureau; Incyte: Speakers Bureau. Rea: Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Incyte: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Pfizer: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Etienne: Novartis: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Incyte: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau. Rousselot: Incyte, Pfizer: Consultancy, Research Funding. Nicolini: Novartis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: travel, accommodations, expenses, Research Funding; Kartos Therapeutics: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sun Pharma Ltd.: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Incyte Biosciences: Honoraria, Other: travel, accommodations, expenses, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; BMS: Honoraria.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Liu ◽  
Yi Chen ◽  
Kefan Xie ◽  
Xiaohong Chen

Abstract At present, several countries, such as Germany and India, have employed a pool testing method on the nucleic acid testing of COVID-19 for the shortage of detection kits. In this method, the testing is performed on several samples of the cases together as a bunch. If the test result of the bunch is negative, then it is shown that none of the cases in the bunch has been infected with the novel coronavirus. On the contrary, if the test result of the bunch is positive, then the samples are tested one by one to confirm which cases are infected. We verified that the pool testing method of COVID-19 is effective in the situation of the shortage of nucleic acid detection kits based on probabilistic modeling. Moreover, the following interesting results are also obtained. (1) If the infection rate is extremely low, while the same number of detection kits are used, the expected number of cases that can be tested by the pool testing method is far more than that by the one-by-one testing method. (2) The pool testing method is effective only when the infection rate is less than 0.3078. While the infection rate decreases from 0.3078 to 0.0018, the optimal sample sizes in one bunch increases from 3 to 25. In general, the higher the infection rate, the smaller the optimal sample size in one bunch. (3) If N samples are tested by the pool testing method, while the sample size in one bunch is G, the number of detection kits required is in the interval (N/G, N). Additionally, the lower the infection rate, the fewer detection kits are needed. Therefore, the pool testing method is not only suitable for the situation of the shortage of detection kits, but also the situation of the overall or sampling detection for a large population.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Scullion ◽  
Geraldine Scullion

AbstractAs many countries plan to lift lockdown measures aimed at suppression of COVID-19, data from early regional epidemics in Italy were analysed to ascertain the effectiveness of the timing of preventative measures. The cumulative caseload data were extracted from regional epidemics in Italy. Epidemic features in regions where lockdown was applied early were compared to those where lockdown was applied later for statistical differences. There were statistically significant differences in the timing of the peak, the cumulative incidence at peak and the case/km2 at peak between regions where the lockdown had been applied early and those where it was applied late. The peak occurred 7 days earlier with four times less cases/km2 in regions where the lockdown was applied within 10 days of the start of the epidemic. Cumulative caseloads, cases/km2 and/or the number of days into an epidemic can be used to plan future localised suppression measures as part of a national post-lockdown policy. There were 350 (95% confidence interval (CI) 203) cumulative cases and 2.4 (CI 1.1) cases/km2 on day 8 of the regional epidemics.


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