AN EXAMINATION OF PREDICTION MARKET EFFICIENCY: NBA CONTRACTS ON TRADESPORTS

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-77
Author(s):  
Richard Borghesi

In this paper I examine the absolute and relative price efficiency of NBA options listed on Tradesports.com.  I find that contracts within specific price bands are misvalued, but also demonstrate that this market is more efficient than is the market for NFL options.  Specifically, I show that contracts priced around $25 win (expire at $100) at a rate less than expected, while those priced around $75 win at a rate greater than expected.  The magnitudes of these deviations between prices and fundamental values are less than those in the NFL market.  Also, while prior theoretical work predicts that low-priced contracts should be overpriced, I instead find that NBA contracts priced near $2.50 win more frequently than expected.I thank Rob Dougherty and Brijesh Patel for assistance with the NBA event data, and Leighton Vaughan Williams for meaningful suggestions throughout.  Any errors are strictly my own.

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitris Eleftheriotis

This article reframes the critical discourse around the ‘Greek Weird Wave’ using an approach informed by theoretical work on cosmopolitanism. Focussing on Yorgos Lanthimos’s Dogtooth (2009) and Athena-Rachel Tsangari’s Attenberg (2010), the critical interpretation of the role of the family is radically rethought. I argue that the privileging of allegorical readings of the family in the Weird Wave films constitutes a form of critical denial of the deeply problematic and specifically Greek ways in which the family (dys)functions. I challenge the absolute and exclusive power that the Greek ‘crisis’ holds over interpretations and evaluations of Weird Wave films, which discursively displaces the problems of the family to broader sociopolitical frameworks. In reclaiming the importance of literal readings of the films, I reposition them as manifestations of a specific cosmopolitan disposition, that of introspection, a process of self-examination that overcomes denial. In turn, the critical reframing of the films outlines the contours of a complex agonistics of introspective cosmopolitanism, an inward investigative disposition that is dialectically linked to cosmopolitan positioning. Jean François Lyotard’s 1989 theorization of the oikos (home/house) provides a conceptual model for understanding the family (oikogeneia), which, in its Greek specificities, is central to the films under discussion.


Author(s):  
Philip Bond ◽  
Diego García

Abstract We develop a benchmark model to study the equilibrium consequences of indexing in a standard rational expectations setting. Individuals incur costs to participate in financial markets, and these costs are lower for individuals who restrict themselves to indexing. A decline in indexing costs directly increases the prevalence of indexing, thereby reducing the price efficiency of the index and augmenting relative price efficiency. In equilibrium, these changes in price efficiency in turn further increase indexing, and raise the welfare of uninformed traders. For well-informed traders, the share of trading gains stemming from market timing increases relative to stock selection trades.


Author(s):  
Chukwuma Agu ◽  
Anthony Orji

This chapter investigates the relationship between stock pricing and behaviour of the stock market on one hand and micro and macroeconomic fundamentals in the Nigerian economy on the other from 1980-2009 using both primary and secondary data. Results from the primary survey indicate that the key drivers of share prices were neither broad macroeconomic indicators nor key indicators of the health of the firm. Prices were clearly shown to be much above levels that could have been determined by such indicators as posted profits of firms, amounts paid out as dividend and its regularity. Secondary data analysis equally show that the relationship between actual levels of the all share price index for the period of our analysis and during the financial crisis were not driven by “expected” variables. While its fundamental values are driven by monetary and relative price variables, actual values are driven by external sector variables and prices.


1990 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas D. Evanoff ◽  
Philip R. Israilevich ◽  
Randall C. Merris

Dialogia ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zainul Hakim

Abstract: Abu> Isḥāq al-Shāṭibī,  a 14th century Muslim scholar is famous of his idea of maqāṣid shari>'ah. He succeeded in formulating fundamental values in the Qur'an. He is also known to have a different view of the Qur'an compared to the other uṣūl al-fiqh scholars. This article describes the Shāṭib’s view of the Sufism idea that the Qur'an conveys ẓāhir and bāṭin’s meaning. Shāṭibī concludes that the term zāhir is an understanding of original text as apprehended by the Arabs at the time of the emerge of the Qur'an. Meanwhile, bāṭin’s meaning is the real purpose of the Qur'an that Allah intends to. Shāṭibī  believes that leading to the understanding of the meaning of bāṭin can be done through tadabbur, as written by Abū Naṣr al-Sarrāj in al-Lumā'. Moreover, Shāṭib applied this idea in formulating the concept of maqāṣid shari>’ah. Although, he acknowledged the validity of interpretation by the meaning of bāṭin, Shāṭibī offers two requirements, namely, first, the meaning of bāṭin is conveyed in accordance to the ẓāhir text and it is not deviated from the rules of arabic language. Second, the conveyed meaning is supported by another verse clearly indicating the real meaning of bāṭin. Both requirements reflect the principles of the originality of Qurán and the absolute verses containing al-uṣūl al-kulliyyah. كان أبو ملخص:إسحاق الشاطبي مفكرا مسلما في القرن الرابع عشر، ويعرف حتى اليوم بفكرته عن مقاصد الشريعة. وحصل الشاطبي على صياغة القيم الأساسية في القرآن الكريم. ومن المعروف أيضا أن لديه وجهة نظر عن القرآن التي تختلف عن معظم الفقهاء الآخرين. و فى هذه المقالة شرح الشاطبي عن الفكرة الصوفية بأن القرآن له معنى باطن ومعنى ظاهر. واستنتج الشاطبي إلى أن مصطلح معنى الظاهر هو فهم النص الخالص، وهذا كما يفهمه العرب في وقت نزوله. وأما المعنى الباطن هو الهدف الحقيقي للقرآن الذي أراده الله. واستنتج الباحث أن الشاطبي وافق على هذه الفكرة. والطريقة التي يمكن أن يؤدي إلى فهم معنى الباطن هو طريقة التدبّر، وهذا كما كتبه أبو نصر السراج في اللمع. وأشار أنه وافق بهذه الطريقة لأنه قد استخدمها لصياغة مفهوم مقاصد الشريعة. وهو يقدم شرطين فى استخدام هذه الطريقة. أولا، أن يكون إنتاج المعنى الباطن وفقا لظاهر النص ولا ينحرف عن قواعد اللغة العربية. ثانيا، المعنى المنتج مناسب بآية أخرى التي تشير إلى صحة المعنى الباطن الذي تم حصوله. كل من هذه الشروط تصور عن المبادئ التي حصلها الشاطبي على أن القرآن الكريم عربي وإطلاق الآيات التي تحتوي على الأصول الكلية. Abstrak: Abu> Isḥāq al-Shāṭibī, sarjana Muslim abad ke-14 dikenal hingga kini dengan gagasan maqāṣid sharī‘ah. Ia berhasil merumuskan nilai-nilai fundamental dalam al-Qur’an. Ia juga dikenal memiliki pandangan terhadap al-Qur’an yang berbeda dengan kebanyakan ulama uṣūl fiqh lain. Dalam tulisan ini dijelaskan pandangan Shāṭibī mengenai gagasan kaum sufi bahwa al-Qur’an memiliki makna ẓāhir dan makna bāṭin. Mengenai konsep makna ẓāhir dan bāṭin, Shāṭibī menyimpulkan bahwa yang dimaksud ẓāhir adalah pemahaman terhadap teks murni sebagaimana yang dipahami orang Arab pada masa turunnya al-Qur’an. Sementara itu, yang dimaksud bāṭin adalah maksud al-Qur’an sebenarnya yang dikehendaki Allah. Setelah dilakukan penelitian, disimpulkan bahwa Shāṭibī setuju dengan gagasan ini. Adapun metode yang diakui Shāṭibī dapat mengantar menuju pemahaman makna bāṭin adalah dengan tadabbur, sebagaimana yang ditulis oleh Abū Naṣr al-Sarrāj dalam al-Lumāʻ. Penerimaan Shāṭibī terhadap metode ini tidak lepas dari fakta bahwa ia juga menggunakan metode yang sama untuk merumuskan konsep maqāṣid sharīʻah. Meski mengakui keabsahan penafsiran dengan makna bāṭin, Shāṭibī mengajukan dua syarat. Pertama, makna bāṭin yang dihasilkan sesuai dengan kondisi teks secara ẓāhir dan tidak melenceng dari kaidah-kaidah bahasa arab. Kedua, makna yang dihasilkan didukung oleh ayat lain secara jelas yang menunjukkan kebenaran makna bāṭin yang diperoleh. Kedua syarat ini mencerminkan prinsip yang dibangunnya yakni kearaban al-Qur’an dan mutlaknya ayat-ayat yang berisi al-uṣūl al-kulliyyah. Keywords: Hermeneutika, Tafsir Sufi, Maqāṣid Sharīʻah, Makna ẓāhir dan bāṭin. 


2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Richard Borghesi

Prediction markets add value when they produce unbiased forecasts.  However, several prior studies find persistent biases when examining prediction market sides contracts.  Sides contracts represent bets on whether the score differential between two teams in a contest will be greater or less than a stated value.  We propose that inferences generated from examining Tradesports’ sides contracts may be problematic because they are framed exclusively with respect to favorites.  If a favorite-longshot (or reverse favorite-longshot) bias causes these deviations from rationality, it may be that non-sports-related (e.g., internal corporate) prediction markets assets do not suffer from the same shortcomings.  To evaluate the generalizability of prior findings, we contrast the price efficiency of Tradesports’ sides and totals contracts.  In totals wagers, traders take a position on whether the combine score of both teams in a game will be above or below a stated value.  We find that the fundamental structural differences between totals contracts and sides contracts partly determine differences in price efficiencies.  Relative to those in the sides market, some price biases in the totals market are significantly smaller in magnitude, and others are absent altogether.  Results indicate that contract structure plays a significant role in the ability of prediction markets to produce unbiased estimates.


2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-42
Author(s):  
Florian Teschner

The disposition effect describes investors’ common tendency of selling a winning investment too soon and holding on to losing investments too long. We analyze the disposition effect in a prediction market for economic indices. We show that the effect for individual traders as well as on an aggregated level. Furthermore we find a significant asymmetry of the disposition effect. The effect can almost exclusively be attributed to the percentage of gains realized (PGR). Additionally we link the aggregated disposition effect and market efficiency. A common hypothesis of the behavioral finance literature is that if participants make systematically biased decisions, market efficiency will suffer. Our setup is well-suited to studying the behavioral aspects of decision making because, in contrast to financial markets (i) the value of shares in our market is ultimately known and (ii) we can measure the participants’ behavioral biases (i.e the disposition effect). Against intuition we find no correlation between the disposition effect and prediction accuracy - a proxy for market efficiency.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-71
Author(s):  
Philip O'Connor ◽  
Feng Zhou

We investigated 1,587 Tradesports point spread contracts for NFL games during the 2005/06 season. Differing point spreads create differing odds, meaning we could test for the traditional favorite long shot bias in NFL betting. We found that there was no favorite long shot bias. However, the market underestimated the chances of the favored team winning by about 10% across all odds categories, and this bias persisted throughout the season. We found relatively low transaction costs. For a price-taker, the Tradesports “Vegas-line” point spread had a 2.2% total takeout including exchange fees, about half of the 4.55% takeout of traditional legal bookmakers. Contracts with a price around 50, creating even money returns to bets on both teams, and higher volume contracts, had lower transaction costs. Participants were found to prefer the Las Vegas line point spread contract followed by the straight-up contract. Trading volume during the game (in-running) was about twice the trading volume leading up to the game. Teams with better season records and from cities with larger populations generated a higher volume of trades. Sunday night and Monday night games generated about four times more volume than regular Sunday games.Helpful comments were provided by Adi Schnytzer and participants of the 2007 University of California-Riverside Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Conference, and an excellent anonymous referee. We thank Jared Hunt for computer assistance.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-62
Author(s):  
Sanela Nikolić

Bauhaus Theater obtained its most complete form through Oskar Schlemmer's artistic, pedagogical and theoretical work. The key problem for Schlemmer was the law of motion of the human body in space. His poetic implied anti narrative and antimimetic theater and also the widespread use of stage figures with the vivid articulation of space as his primary intentions. The human body on stage, converted into artificial figure, was the universal symbol of human being defined by opposites, which exists in a geometrical given space and determine it metaphysically. Use of term 'dance' in Schlemmer's play most titles, is consistent with the conception of stage event as a stage play of artificial figure in geometrical given space. Design in motion concept, which means the organization of the stage with specific mechanical-choreographic motions and working with form and color, determine the Schlemmer's stage as the absolute visual stage. Within the Bauhaus, Oskar Schlemmer's stage work has contributed to understanding of the theatrical event as the equally important artwork area for design of totality of space in which was established harmony between man, his life process and environment in which man exists.


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