FORECASTING ACCURACY: COMPARING PREDICTION MARKETS AND SURVEYS – AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Reig ◽  
Ramona Schoder

Prediction markets are viewed as the most accurate instrument for collective forecasts. However, empirical studies, mostly based on political elections, deliver mixed results. An experimental study was conducted to avoid certain biases and problems and to better control conditions of eliciting information from individuals. One typical problem is for example comparing prediction markets that focus on judging the public opinion in the future with polls asking for individual election preferences at a certain point of time. Therefore, our study compared forecast accuracy between prediction markets and a simple survey for the same forecasting item.The results showed roughly the same accuracy for all employed methods with the survey delivering slightly better results at lower costs, which was surprising. The experiments demonstrated also that it is possible to gain highly accurate forecasts with a relatively small number of participants (6-17) taking part continuously.

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 681-703
Author(s):  
Giuliana Mandich

This paper is aimed at understanding how we engage with the future in different ways in everyday life. Many empirical studies have emphasised that what we usually call ‘imagination’ of the future takes diverse forms and meanings. Varied narratives of the future that are possible coexist in daily life in a bumpy, semi-conscious and occasionally tense dialogue with one another. To understand this variation of narratives, a thorough exploration of the different modes of engaging with the future that various forms of agency bring into play is required, together with a sensitive empirical analysis. I use Thévenot’s theory of regimes of engagement as a starting point to at least partially explain this variety. Thévenot’s idea that different types of individual involvement in relation to different definitions of the relevant reality (e.g. familiarity, plans and the public domain of justification and exploration) contain interesting implications for the analysis of what I define as modes of engagement with the future. As involved as we are with social reality through specific formats, so are we with the future. As the ‘relevant reality’ is different according to the regime of engagement that we are involved in, the nature of anticipation also varies. The future is ‘made and measured’ within the logic of probability in the regime of plans; of possibility in the regime of justification; of practical anticipation in the regime of familiarity; and of discovery in the regime of exploration. This perspective helps to avoid a reification of the future as something that is ‘there’ and that we simply discover and avoids easy dichotomisation of forms of anticipation of the future as realistic or unrealistic.


wisdom ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Hovhannes Hovhannisyan ◽  
Hasmik Hovhannisyan ◽  
Astghik Petrosyan

The research study was conducted in two stages, in 2015 and 2016 from March 15 to April 15 utilizing the method of formalized interview.  Each phase of the survey involved 560 Yerevan residents. As the results of the research come to prove, the mosaic of the public perception and the psychological reflection of the phenomenon of the Armenian Genocide is very sophisticated. The moods of regret, pain, depression, declining moods, complaint, wrath, revenge, hope and optimistic views for future are intertwined and bound together. These moods and feelings appear next to each other and quickly alternating.According to the results of both 2015 and 2016 surveys the moods of overcoming pain, faith and hope, optimistic attitude towards the future (91.4%) are dominant over complaint, anger, revenge, struggle for compensation (85.5%) and regret, pain, depression, declining moods (69.6 %).The indicators of the moods and feelings of the first and second groups are generally stable. In this connection both studies in 2015 and 2016 recorded similar results. However, the indicators of the following moods decreased from 76.2% to 69.6%: regret, pain, depression, declining moods, the manifestations of the complex of a victim. The indicator of more intense expression of such moods dropped from 47.2% to 35.6%.The authors explain such change by the influence of three internal and external political factor groups.


Res Publica ◽  
1976 ◽  
Vol 18 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 475-189
Author(s):  
Henri Breny

The technical changes in the local-elections law that were recently implemented have only had a negligible effect on the electoral results.  As a matter of fact they did not bring about any change in the two major evils that beset local elections in Belgium. These are indeed dominated by a particular system (Imperiali) of allocation of seats that systematically deviates from proportional representation and is heavily resented as such by a considerable part of the public opinion. The recent modifications allow a voting method (the multiple vote) that wilt - from now on and increasingly so in the future - give a possibility to particular factions that are slightly stronger within a certain party to conquer a far more than proportional share of the party seats andmight well come close to the total number of seats allocated to a certain party. It is indeed the democratic nature of the electoral system in Belgium that is at stake here.


2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 21-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Deimer ◽  
Joaquin Poblete

Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).This paper contributes new insights by analysing 44,169 trading observations on ipredict, where real-money and play-money contracts are traded on a variety of events. Forecasting accuracy is analysed on overall trading activity as well as comparison of equal contracts under different monetary incentive schemes. Statistical models are built to analyse the influence of order volumes and days to expiry under both incentive schemes. Ignoring different events in underlying trading activity, play-money contracts imply statistically insignificant excess accuracy. In direct comparison of equal events, real-money contracts, however, real-money contracts predict at significantly higher accuracy. This paper finds a relationship between order volumes and forecasting accuracy whereas the influence of days to expiry and aggregated volumes showed lower R² than was expected by formed hypotheses.


Comunicar ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 13 (25) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandra Walzer-Moskovic

During the last years, Spain pased thrugh a gradual and persistent deterioration of TV´s contents. The public TV (RTVE) reform, the creation of an Autroregulation Commission in November 2004 and the growth of the discontent shown by certain sectors of the public opinion, conform a new panorama and are an excellent opportunity for the future of our television, our society, our education and our culture. Those who have struggled many years for a television serving people´s education, have now not only the opportunity to claim an educational TV in a general sense, but an educational TV in a strict sense. En los últimos años se ha vivido en España un proceso gradual, constante y persistente de deterioro de los contenidos televisivos. La oferta programática se ha transformado en una suerte de espejo maléfico en el que las cadenas se han observado entre sí para copiarse. El resultado ha sido el esperable: en cualquiera de ellas puede verse más de lo mismo, aunque con leves variaciones respecto de los modelos originariamente calcados. Los espectadores han respondido de forma diversa a este estado de cosas: a veces con complacencia y a veces alimentando en secreto el anhelo de que esa televisión autorreferencial y enamorada de sí misma, acabe estrellándose –como Narciso– contra su propia imagen. La Ley de Reforma de la Televisión Pública Estatal (RTVE), la creación de una Comisión Mixta de Autorregulación de Contenidos Televisivos e Infancia hacia finales de 2004 y el crecimiento del malestar manifestado por ciertos sectores de la opinión pública, contribuyen a dibujar un panorama que deja ver una oportunidad magnífica para el futuro de nuestra televisión, de nuestra sociedad, nuestra educación y nuestra cultura. Quienes desde hace años bregan por una televisión de calidad al servicio de la ciudadanía y de la educación no pueden silenciarse ahora. Es que si el estado paupérrimo de los contenidos, la procacidad y el griterío reinantes hacían reclamar una televisión con unos contenidos que sean pro-educativos, en términos generales, ahora parece que llega el momento propicio para dar un paso más y pensar en una televisión educativa en términos estrictos. Si bien es cierto que aun queda mucho por hacer y que los mercaderes no desean ceder ni un ápice en lo que ellos consideran que es la esencia de su negocio; si bien es cierto que para grandes sectores asociar lo televisivo con lo educativo parece un despropósito, es necesario empezar a hablar de una televisión educativa en términos específicos. En un contexto social en el que lo educativo parece estar afectado por el descrédito y el desprestigio, las televisiones privadas se aferran con uñas y dientes a su parcela de negocio. Sin embargo, conociendo las variables que están en juego, es imprescindible entender que este momento es histórico y de oportunidad. En este trabajo se pretende exponer algunas reflexiones que tienen la vocación de situar ejes que permitan pensar en una televisión que no se encastille en una defensa sistemática de la exclusión de lo educativo y que restituya, aunque sea en una medida modesta, la misión educativa de las industrias culturales y de la televisión en particular. Para ello será necesario transitar, también, por los nuevos derroteros de lo educativo en nuestras sociedades.


2004 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 115-154
Author(s):  
Bedri Gencer

The political crisis of modernity has given rise to a number of studies in the area of political history that are disproportionately concerned with civil society. This consequently has spawned the development of broad theoretical frameworks concerning civil society and the public sphere. One of the lesser-treated subjects within this context has been public opinion. Developed primarily by post-Enlightenment liberal political theory, the notions of civil society and the public sphere had been presented as major alternatives to the domain of the power politics of the Machiavellian tradition. In order to place public opinion on a sound theoretical basis, there arose the need to promote historical empirical studies of it across national contexts over time. . One of the most significant tasks confronting comparative historical sociologists today is uncovering the origin of public opinion, which this paper undertakes to do within an Ottoman context.


2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 542-546
Author(s):  
Sara R. Rinfret ◽  
Justin Angle ◽  
Samuel Scott ◽  
Daisy Ward ◽  
Kaixuan Yang ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTFor decades, political and private polling operations have informed about the public’s perceptions regarding a range of topics. In particular, universities (e.g., Marist and Quinnipiac) provide noteworthy research to inform and predict the outcomes of US elections. Yet, what role do our classrooms play in advancing the public opinion polling skills of our students? This article uses experiential learning as a descriptive framework to illustrate how a yearlong, immersive, and student-led public opinion polling experience, the Big Sky Poll, advances students’ social-science and data-fluency skills. Our findings suggest important insights into the future of public opinion polling from the vantage point of a rural Western state, which can be replicated in other academic institutions.


Author(s):  
Richard McCleary ◽  
David McDowall ◽  
Bradley J. Bartos

Chapter 4 downplays forecasting’s role in the design and analysis of time series experiments and emphasizes its potential abuses. While the “best” ARIMA model will outperform other forecasting models in the short and medium-run, long-horizon ARIMA forecasts grow increasingly inaccurate with diminished utility to the forecaster. Although the principles of forecasting help provide deeper insight into the nature of ARIMA models and modeling, the forecasts themselves are ordinarily of limited practical value. Forecasting can provide useful guidance to analysts choosing between two competing univariate models. While forecasting accuracy is only one of many criteria that might be considered, other things being equal, it is fair to say that a statistically adequate model of a process should provide reasonable forecasts of the future. Forecast accuracy depends on a host of factors, many of which lie outside the grasp of model adequacy. More important, forecast accuracy has no universally accepted metric.


2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 101-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Ćurko

In Joyce’s novel A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man the representation of the Irish nation is closely interwoven with that of Irish women. Two groups can be distinguished among the women and girl characters: the women who are a symbol of authority and those who embody desire. Stephen’s mother and Dante Riordan, a family relative and re ligious fanatic who closely surveyed and inf luenced his early childhood, symbolize those Irish who firmly supported the dogma that the Irish nation’s identity was not to be sepa rated from the nation’s necessity in being a Roman Catholic one, subdued to the domina tion of both Rome and London. Stephen, after having accepted this view as a child, refuses this standpoint as rigid and narrowminded; in one word, as a dangerous stereotype with disastrous consequences for the future of Ireland as he becomes an adolescent.As for the other group, the girl named (Stephen’s) desire, the one central and recur rent image which appears in its description is that of the “batlike soul”. The metaphor is deeply significant for the theme of this essay, as the girl characters are portrayed as unaware of themselves and only coming to consciousness, just as the Ireland of the epoch was seen and portrayed by young Stephen. The women, object of desire, are also seen as adulterous: but to betray, Stephen soon gets to understand, is the only way to be faithful – to himself and to his vision of what Ireland is yet to become.Thus the representation of the Irish nation is not only in connection with that of Irish women, but also in relation with a process of creation of Stephen’s own identity, as he slowly liberates himself from the public opinion and becomes a free minded and inde pendent adult, aware of the impact and importance his future artist vocation will have for him, as well as for his whole country.


2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 312-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Moreira ◽  
Fernando Barbosa

Abstract. Delay discounting (DD) is the process of devaluing results that happen in the future. With this review, we intend to identify specificities in the processes of DD in impulsive behavior. Studies were retrieved from multiple literature databases, through rigorous criteria (we included systematic reviews and empirical studies with adult human subjects), following the procedures of the Cochrane Collaboration initiative. Of the 174 documents obtained, 19 were considered eligible for inclusion and were retained for in-depth analysis. In addition, 13 studies from the manual search were included. Thus, a total of 32 studies were selected for review. The objectives/hypotheses, results, and the main conclusion(s) were extracted from each study. Results show that people with pronounced traits of impulsivity discount rewards more markedly, that is, they prefer immediate rewards, though of less value, or postponed losses, even though they worsen in the future. Taken together, the existing data suggest the importance of inserting DD as a tool for initial assessment in conjunction with measures of addiction and stress level, as well as the consideration of new therapies.


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