scholarly journals Media and campaign effects on vote choice at national elections in Europe: A review of a multilingual research landscape Medien- und Kampagneneffekte auf Wahlentscheidungen bei nationalen Hauptwahlen in Europa: Literaturbericht über eine vielsprachige Forschungslandschaft

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hajo Boomgaarden ◽  
Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck
Keyword(s):  
Vote Choice ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Campaign Effects ◽  
Multilingual Research

scholarly journals Examining a Most Likely Case for Strong Campaign Effects: Hitler’s Speeches and the Rise of the Nazi Party, 1927–1933

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (4) ◽  
pp. 1050-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER SELB ◽  
SIMON MUNZERT
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Nazi Party ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Campaign Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Extensive Data ◽  
The Face ◽  
Populist Movements

Hitler’s rise to power amidst an unprecedented propaganda campaign initiated scholarly interest in campaign effects. To the surprise of many, empirical studies often found minimal effects. The predominant focus of early work was on U.S. elections, though. Nazi propaganda as the archetypal and, in many ways, most likely case for strong effects has rarely been studied. We collect extensive data about Hitler’s speeches and gauge their impact on voter support at five national elections preceding the dictatorship. We use a semi-parametric difference-in-differences approach to estimate effects in the face of potential confounding due to the deliberate scheduling of events. Our findings suggest that Hitler’s speeches, while rationally targeted, had a negligible impact on the Nazis’ electoral fortunes. Only the 1932 presidential runoff, an election preceded by an extraordinarily short, intense, and one-sided campaign, yielded positive effects. This study questions the importance of charismatic leaders for the success of populist movements.

Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (03) ◽  
pp. 481-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmut Norpoth ◽  
Thomas Gschwend
Keyword(s):  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Bull's Eye

In the German national election this fall, based on the forecast of the Chancellor Model, the governing coalition will score a resounding victory. Chancellor Angela Merkel enjoys a high approval rating, which puts her at a 2-1 advantage over the challenger, Peer Steinbrück. Although Germany is not a presidential system, where voters elect the chief policymaker, chancellor support has proved to be a strong predictor of vote choice in German national elections. Our forecast model also includes long-term partisanship, which provides a broad base for the governing parties in this election, and length of tenure, which exacts a modest penalty after two terms of office. Since its premiere in 2002, the model has predicted the winner in each election. In a case of perhaps beginner's luck, the 2002 forecast scored a bull's-eye with 47.1%, the exact share of the governing parties; the forecast was posted three months before Election Day. No poll or other model, not even the Election-Day exit polls, came close to this performance; in fact, most people predicted a defeat for Schröder's red-green coalition (Norpoth and Gschwend 2003).

Discussion Networks, Campaign Effects, and Vote Choice

2020 ◽  
pp. 94-128
Author(s):  
Andy Baker ◽  
Barry Ames ◽  
Lúcio Rennó
Keyword(s):  
Social Ties ◽  
Social Influences ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Levels Of Analysis ◽  
Preference Change ◽  
Panel Surveys ◽  
Campaign Effects ◽  
Preference Stability ◽  
The Social

This chapter demonstrates that the dynamics of vote choice described in the previous chapter are caused by the discussion and social ties described in Chapter 2. During campaigns, discussion with disagreeing partners tends to induce preference change in voters, while discussion only with agreeing partners reinforces vote intentions, causing preference stability. The chapter illustrates this relationship at multiple levels of analysis, estimating relationships in the Brazilian and Mexican panel surveys in ways that address threats to causal inference. Quotations from the qualitative data also reveal social influence in action, showing vividly that many voters defer to their more politically knowledgeable social ties. In short, the votes cast on election day in Brazil and Mexico are socially informed. The chapter also shows that the social influences that occur during campaigns determine who wins elections. Candidates whose mid-campaign supporters encounter high rates of disagreement from social ties struggle to hold on to these voters through election day. These voters' preferences are less reinforced in conversation, so many switch to different candidates. The candidate they previously supported collapses in the polls.

scholarly journals Zooming in on the ‘Europeanisation’ of national politics: A comparative analysis of six EU countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-29
Author(s):  
Mariano Torcal ◽  
Toni Rodón
Keyword(s):  
Party Systems ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
National Politics ◽  
National Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
Individual Distance ◽  
European Election ◽  
The Eu

This article empirically revisits and tests the effect of individual distance from parties on the EU integration dimension and on the left–right dimension for vote choice in both national and European elections. This analysis is based on the unique European Election Study (EES) 2014 survey panel data from seven EU countries. Our findings show that in most countries the effect of individual distance on the EU integration dimension is positive and significant for both European and national elections. Yet the effect of this dimension is not uniform across all seven countries, revealing two scenarios: one in which it is only relevant for Eurosceptic voters and the other in which it is significant for voters of most parties in the system. The first is mainly related to the presence of a ‘hard’ Eurosceptic party in the party supply, but the second, which indicates a more advanced level of Europeanisation of party systems, is not explained by most current theoretical and empirical contributions. We conclude by proposing two additional explanations for this latter scenario in which the EU integration dimension is present for most voters in both type of elections, including those voting for the main parties. Our findings and further discussion have implications for the understanding of the Europeanisation of national politics and its relationship with vote choice.

Voting for Democracy: Campaign Effects in Chile's Democratic Transition

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor C. Boas
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Transition To Democracy ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Political Regime ◽  
Campaign Effects ◽  
Global Context ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Discernible Effect ◽  
Augusto Pinochet

AbstractIn a global context in which authoritarian regimes often hold elections, defeating dictators at the polls can play a key role in transitions to democracy. When the opposition is allowed to campaign for votes in such elections, there are strong reasons to believe that its efforts will be more persuasive than those of the authoritarian incumbent. This article examines the effect of televised campaign advertising on vote choice in the 1988 plebiscite that inaugurated Chile's transition to democracy. Using matching to analyze postelectoral survey data, it shows that the advertising of the opposition's no campaign made Chileans more likely to vote against dictator Augusto Pinochet, whereas the advertising of the government's yes campaign had no discernible effect. These findings suggest that the no campaign played an important causal role in the change of political regime.

scholarly journals Neither Mercenaries nor Masterminds: Campaign Staff and Consultants in American National Elections

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Laurison
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Cultural Production ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Campaign Effects ◽  
Work World ◽  
Fundamental Uncertainty ◽  
High Level

Campaigns play a key role in shaping how Americans experience electoral politics, yet the way in which professional campaign operatives understand and approach their work has received relatively little scholarly attention. Most accounts of campaigns’ strategic decision-makers treat them as masterminds – individuals who devise tactics based on brilliant political insight or masterful data analysis. Others assume they are mercenaries, milking the electoral process for all the money they can regardless of their own ideological commitments or what might actually help candidates win elections. Neither of these approaches is sufficient to understand how political professionals understand their work; they ignore both the fundamental uncertainty of campaign effects and the particularities of the work-world of political operatives. Drawing on 79 interviews with 67 campaign staff and consultants with high-level experience in Presidential and Senate campaigns, I argue that they should be understood as participants in a field of cultural production, which functions much like other arenas where communicative materials are crafted. Gaining esteem and coveted positions within the field is most participants’ primarily motivation, and the quality of the messages, images, and strategies they produce is judged less by measurable effects on voters than by an internally-generated set of norms and ideas about best practices.

Vote Choice of Indian Voters: Guided or Independent?

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 276-285
Author(s):  
Shreyas Sardesai ◽  
Vibha Attri
Keyword(s):  
Family Member ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Community Leaders ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Dependent Voting

The article probes the independence of vote choice among Indian voters during national elections. Analyzing Lokniti’s election survey data it highlights that even as a majority of voters take an independent call on who they are going to vote for, there is still a significant proportion that votes according to someone else’s advice. While this counsel has always come from a family member mostly, voters are increasingly paying attention to a community leaders’ opinion as well, particularly those voters who belong to marginalized and minority social groups. Dependent voting is also more prevalent among women and voters in socio-economically backward states.

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