How community forest management performs when REDD+ payments fail

The Reduced Emissions in Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) initiative uses payments for ecosystem services as incentives for developing countries to manage and protect their forests. REDD+ initiatives also prioritize social (and environmental) co-benefits aimed at improving the livelihoods of communities that are dependent on forests. Despite the incorporation of co-benefits into REDD+ goals, carbon sequestration remains the primary metric for which countries can receive payments from REDD+, but after more than ten years of REDD+, many site-specific programs have failed to complete the carbon verification process. Here, we examine whether the REDD+ social co-benefits alone are sufficient to have slowed deforestation in the absence of carbon payments on Pemba, Tanzania. Using satellite imagery (Landsat archive), we quantified forest cover change for the period before (2001-2010) and after (2010-2018) the launch in 2010-11 of Pemba island’s REDD+ Readiness project. We then compared rates of forest cover change between shehia (administrative units) that were part of REDD+ Readiness intervention and those that were not, adjusting for confounding variables and the non-random selection of REDD+ shehia with a statistical matching procedure. Despite considerable variation in forest outcomes among shehia, the associated co-benefits with the Pemba REDD+ project had no discernible effect on forest cover change. Likewise, we did not detect an effect of socioecological covariates on forest cover change across all shehia, though island-wide human population growth since 2012 may have played a role. These findings are unsurprising given the failure to secure carbon payments on Pemba and indicate that co-benefits alone are insufficient to reduce deforestation. We conclude that better oversight of all-involved parties is needed to ensure that REDD+ interventions satisfactorily conclude the process of securing a mechanism for carbon payments, if slowing deforestation is to be achieved.

Using cancer risk algorithms to improve risk estimates and referral decisions

Background Cancer risk algorithms were introduced to clinical practice in the last decade, but they remain underused. We investigated whether General Practitioners (GPs) change their referral decisions in response to an unnamed algorithm, if decisions improve, and if changing decisions depends on having information about the algorithm and on whether GPs overestimated or underestimated risk. Methods 157 UK GPs were presented with 20 vignettes describing patients with possible colorectal cancer symptoms. GPs gave their risk estimates and inclination to refer. They then saw the risk score of an unnamed algorithm and could update their responses. Half of the sample was given information about the algorithm’s derivation, validation, and accuracy. At the end, we measured their algorithm disposition. We analysed the data using multilevel regressions with random intercepts by GP and vignette. Results We find that, after receiving the algorithm’s estimate, GPs’ inclination to refer changes 26% of the time and their decisions switch entirely 3% of the time. Decisions become more consistent with the NICE 3% referral threshold (OR 1.45 [1.27, 1.65], p < .001). The algorithm’s impact is greatest when GPs have underestimated risk. Information about the algorithm does not have a discernible effect on decisions but it results in a more positive GP disposition towards the algorithm. GPs’ risk estimates become better calibrated over time, i.e., move closer to the algorithm. Conclusions Cancer risk algorithms have the potential to improve cancer referral decisions. Their use as learning tools to improve risk estimates is promising and should be further investigated.

The Tradeoff of Temporariness: Economic and Social Impacts of H-2A Status on Mexican Migrant Men

As the H-2A visa program expands to become a core component of contemporary Mexican migration to the United States, questions emerge about the tradeoffs migrants face between temporary and undocumented statuses. This article employs propensity score matching of participants in the Mexican Migration Project—an extensive binational survey of Mexican migrants and their families—to compare economic and social outcomes of H-2A visa recipients vis-à-vis undocumented migrants. Findings indicate that although H-2A visas offer benefits like a lower cost of living while abroad, they do not produce a discernible effect on wages relative to wages earned by undocumented migrants. While H-2A migrants are more likely to work in the formal economy, they are also less likely to build social capital or language proficiency in the United States than undocumented migrants, indicating a degree of social isolation that can be exploited by employers. This comparison contributes to a growing literature on the proliferation of temporary migratory statuses and the marginality experienced by migrants within these statuses.

Sources and effects of Foreign Language Enjoyment, Anxiety and Boredom: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach

The present study is among the first to investigate how three foreign language (FL) emotions (enjoyment (FLE), anxiety (FLCA) and boredom (FLB)) are related to each other. It is the first study to consider how the three FL emotions are shaped by one learner-internal variable (attitude towards the FL), by two perceived teacher behaviours (frequency of use of the FL in class and unpredictability) and how all these variables affect FL achievement. Participants were 332 learners from all over the world studying a wide variety of FLs who filled out an online questionnaire. A close-fitting structural equation model revealed associations between FLE, FLCA, and FLB. Teacher behaviours positively affected FLE, with no discernible effect on FLB or FLCA. Only FLCA was found to have a (negative) effect on academic achievement. The study confirms the complex relationship between teacher behaviours and positive emotions in the FL classroom.

Roles of two distinct alphasatellites modulating geminivirus pathogenesis

Background Alphasatellites are small coding DNA satellites frequently associated with a begomovirus/betasatellite complex, where they are known to modulate virulence and symptom development. Two distinct alphasatellites, namely, Cotton leaf curl Multan alphasatellite (CLCuMuA), and Gossypium darwinii symptomless alphasatellite (GDarSLA) associated with Cotton leaf curl Multan virus-India (CLCuMuV-IN) and Ludwigia leaf distortion betasatellite (LuLDB) were found to be associated with yellow mosaic disease of hollyhock (Alcea rosea) plants. In this study, we show that alphasatellites CLCuMuA and GDarSLA attenuate and delay symptom development in Nicotiana benthamiana. The presence of either alphasatellites reduce the accumulation of the helper virus CLCuMuV-IN. However, the levels of the associated betasatellite, LuLDB, remains unchanged. These results suggest that the alphasatellites could contribute to the host defence and understanding their role in disease development is important for developing resistance strategies. Methods Tandem repeat constructs of two distinct alphasatellites, namely, CLCuMuA and GDarSLA associated with CLCuMuV-IN and LuLDB were generated. N. benthamiana plants were co-agroinoculated with CLCuMuV and its associated alphasatellites and betasatellite molecules and samples were collected at 7, 14 and 21 days post inoculation (dpi). The viral DNA molecules were quantified in N. benthamiana plants by qPCR. The sequences were analysed using the MEGA-X tool, and a phylogenetic tree was generated. Genetic diversity among the CLCuMuA and GDarSLA was analysed using the DnaSP tool. Results We observed a reduction in symptom severity and accumulation of helper virus in the presence of two alphasatellites isolated from naturally infected hollyhock plants. However, no reduction in the accumulation of betasatellite was observed. The phylogenetic and genetic variability study revealed the evolutionary dynamics of these distinct alphasatellites , which could explain the role of hollyhock-associated alphasatellites in plants. Conclusions This study provides evidence that alphasatellites have a role in symptom modulation and suppress helper virus replication without any discernible effect on the replication of the associated betasatellite.

Employee Performance and the Relationships Between Competence, Motivation, and Work Discipline

The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of competence, work motivation, and work discipline on employee performance at the South Sulawesi Provincial Department of Cooperatives and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises. This study took a quantitative approach, utilizing procedures such as literature review, observation, interviews, and questionnaires to collect data. This study surveyed 45 individuals using a basic random selection procedure. The data analysis process will include instrument validation (validity and reliability testing), classical assumption testing (normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation testing), statistical analysis (multiple regression analysis), and hypothesis testing (test coefficient of determination and partial test). The findings indicated that competence had no discernible effect on the performance of employees at the South Sulawesi Province's Cooperatives and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Office. Meanwhile, job motivation and discipline have a substantial impact on employee performance at South Sulawesi Province's Department of Cooperatives and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises.

Strong within-host selection in a maternally inherited obligate symbiont: Buchnera and aphids

Numerous animal lineages have maternally inherited symbionts that are required for host reproduction and growth. Endosymbionts also pose a risk to their hosts because of the mutational decay of their genomes through genetic drift or to selfish mutations that favor symbiont fitness over host fitness. One model for heritable endosymbiosis is the association of aphids with their obligate bacterial symbiont, Buchnera. We experimentally established heteroplasmic pea aphid matrilines containing pairs of closely related Buchnera haplotypes and used deep sequencing of diagnostic markers to measure haplotype frequencies in successive host generations. These frequencies were used to estimate the effective population size of Buchnera within hosts (i.e., the transmission bottleneck size) and the extent of within-host selection. The within-host effective population size was in the range of 10 to 20, indicating a strong potential for genetic drift and fixation of deleterious mutations. Remarkably, closely related haplotypes were subject to strong within-host selection, with selection coefficients as high as 0.5 per aphid generation. In one case, the direction of selection depended on the thermal environment and went in the same direction as between-host selection. In another, a new mutant haplotype had a strong within-host advantage under both environments but had no discernible effect on host-level fitness under laboratory conditions. Thus, within-host selection can be strong, resulting in a rapid fixation of mutations with little impact on host-level fitness. Together, these results show that within-host selection can drive evolution of an obligate symbiont, accelerating sequence evolution.

China’s bilateral trade in Africa: is institutional structure a determinant?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the institutional structures and other predictors that determine bilateral trade between Africa and China from 1995 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach In line with the gravity model of trade, institutional, geographical and socio-economic determinants of China’s bilateral trade with 18 African oil/minerals exporting countries are examined by deploying Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood and dynamic bias-corrected least squares dummy variable econometric techniques. Findings The results indicate that China’s oil/minerals imports from Africa are higher than imports of manufacturing and agricultural goods, and institutional structures indicate that a weak politically stable region with less control of corruption has a discernible effect on trade. Research limitations/implications Further insight can be gained if the type of manufactured goods being exported to China is examined; this is necessary given that China crowds out Africa’s manufactured goods. Therefore, this study recommends the need for Africa to continually strengthen its institutional structures to stimulate trade from other regions. Originality/value This study examines the quality of the institutional structures (political stability and corruption) in African oil/minerals exporting countries, considering that China has been alleged for capitalising on Africa’s weak institutional structures to trade with the resource-endowed region. For the first time, the UN COMTRADE HS product-country-partner-year trade data is used to examine on bilateral sector trade China–Africa links rather than proxies used in the studies of Biggeri and Sanfilippo (2009), De Grauwe et al. (2012) and Foad (2011) that did not capture the real trade value.

Eating versus skipping breakfast has no discernible effect on obesity-related anthropometric outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Eating or skipping breakfast for weight interests scientific and lay communities. Our objective was to systematically review and meta-analyze causal effects of eating versus skipping breakfast on obesity-related anthropometric outcomes in humans. Methods: Six databases were searched for obesity- and breakfast-related terms (final search: 02 JAN 2020). Studies needed to isolate eating versus skipping breakfast in randomized controlled trials. Mean differences were synthesized using inverse variance random effects meta-analysis for each outcome. Positive estimates indicate higher outcomes in breakfast conditions (e.g., weight gain). Leave-one-out sensitivity analysis, secondary baseline habit-by-breakfast assignment analysis, and study duration cumulative analysis were performed. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane risk of bias tool. Results: Ten articles (12 comparisons; 6d-12wk) were included. Conditions included recommendations to eat versus skip breakfast, or provision of some or all meals. 95% confidence intervals of all main analyses included the null value of no difference for each outcome: body weight (0.17 kg [-0.40,0.73], k=12, n=487, I 2=74.5), BMI (0.07 kg/m 2 [-0.10,0.23, k=8, n=396, I 2=54.1), body fat percentage (-0.27% [-1.01,0.47], k=6, n=179, I 2=52.4), fat mass (0.24 kg [-0.21,0.69], k=6, n=205, I 2=0.0), lean mass (0.18 kg [-0.08,0.44], k=6, n=205, I 2=6.7), waist circumference (0.18 cm [-1.77,2.13], k=4, n=102, I 2=78.7), waist:hip ratio (0.00 [-0.01,0.01], k=4, n=102, I 2=8.0), sagittal abdominal diameter (0.19 cm [-2.35,2.73], k=2, n=56, I 2=0.0), and fat mass index (0.00 kg/m 2 [-0.22,0.23], k=2, n=56, I 2=0.0). Subgroup analysis showed only one statistically significant result. The interaction effect for BMI (–0.36[-0.65,-0.07]) indicates assignment to conditions consistent with baseline habits had lower BMI. Leave-one-out analysis did not indicate substantial influence of any one study. Conclusions: There was no discernible effect of eating or skipping breakfast on obesity-related anthropometric measures when pooling studies with substantial design heterogeneity and sometimes statistical heterogeneity. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42016033290.