International Borrowing, Capital Controls, and the Exchange Rate

2013 ◽  
pp. 241-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Cowan ◽  
José De Gregorio
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
International Borrowing

Lower naira will not offset Nigerian recession risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Multiple Exchange ◽  
Price War ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject Pressured naira. Significance The naira has depreciated by approximately 11% on the parallel market since the Saudi-Russia oil price war began, which dashed hopes of OPEC+ supply curbs to stem the price rout amid the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. This has hampered the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ability to support the multiple exchange rate regime, prompting a sharp devaluation of the official exchange rate. Impacts The naira’s devaluation will accelerate rising inflationary pressures from the closure of Nigeria’s land borders last year. The CBN could impose damaging capital controls once more if the exchange rate falls further towards 500:1. With low funds in the oil savings fund, the authorities will likely limit their intervention against COVID-19 to soft loans from the CBN.

scholarly journals Notes on the Brazilian Crisis of 1997-99

2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-404
Author(s):  
FRANCISCO L. LOPES
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Diagonal Band ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT This paper deals with the Brazilian crisis of 1997-98 that lead to the exchange rate floating of January 1999. It starts by showing how exchange rate policy evolved since the Real Plan of 1994 and how the exchange rate regime became a critical issue when the crisis started in 1997. It discusses monetary policy during the crisis, the IMF program, the endogenous diagonal band and the decision to float as an alternative to capital controls and default. This five-year drama ended surprisingly well with a benign float, but it is useful to know its details, with the usual mix of economic de- bate, personality clashes and historical fatality.

scholarly journals Pakistan’s Balance-of-Payments Crisis and Some Policy Options

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-92
Author(s):  
Moazam Mahmood ◽  
Shamyla Chaudry
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Price Theory ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Partial Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Neoclassical price theory, and its extension to IMF country advice, argues that balance-of-payments crises such as Pakistan’s are better resolved by depreciating the exchange rate, making exports cheaper and imports dearer. We argue that a partial equilibrium analysis of just the tradeable goods market on the current account side ignores the capital market on the capital account side, where an increase in outflows allows no equilibrium value for the exchange rate, through a phenomenon dubbed ‘depreciationary expectations’, akin to inflationary expectations. Thisphenomenon will not allow the exchange rate to settle at an equilibrium level, leading to a vicious downward cycle. In such a case,capital controls may well be needed to counter the downward cycle, allowing a return to growth.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

Pengaruh Faktor Fundamental, Risiko Sistematis Dan Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Return Saham Syariah Yang Tergabung Di Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Pada Periode 2010 – 2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-70
Author(s):  
Hasanah Setyowati ◽  
Riyanti Ningsih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Equity Ratio ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aimed to obtain empirical evidence on the influence of fundamental factors, systematic risk and macroeconomics on the returns Islamic stock of companies incorporated in the Jakarta Islamic Index in 2010-2014. The variables used were the fundamental factors that are proxied by Earning Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER); Systematic risk is proxied by Beta Shares; macroeconomic factors is proxied by the inflation rate and the exchange rate. The samples of this study are the enterprises incorporated in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) at the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The sampling method was using purposive sampling. There were 12 samples of Islamic stocks that meet the criteria to be used as samples. The analysis model used is multiple linear regression techniques and the type of data used is secondary data. The study found that all variables, which are Earning Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Beta stock, inflation and the exchange rate do not significantly affect the return of sharia stock either simultaneously or partially.

On the Exchange Rate Policy

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

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