scholarly journals The replication and reproducibility crises: origins and consequences for studies of ecology and evolution

Author(s):  
Nigel Gilles Yoccoz

Watch the VIDEO.There is a widespread discussion around a scientific crisis, resulting from a lack of reproducibility of published scientific studies. This was exemplified by Ioannidis’ 2005 paper “Why most published research findings are false” or the 2015 Open Science Collaboration study assessing reproducibility of psychological science. An often-cited reason for this reproducibility crisis is a fundamental misunderstanding of what statistical methods, and in particular P-values, can achieve. In the context of studies of ecology and evolution, I will show how 1) the pressure for publishing “novel” results, 2) what Gelman has called the “garden of forking paths”, i.e. the fact that published analyses represent only one out of many possible analyses, and 3) the often fruitless dichotomy between a null and alternative hypotheses, has led to the present situation. While scientific progress is dependent of major breakthroughs, we also need to find a better balance between confirmatory research – understanding how known effects vary in size according to the context – and exploratory, non-incremental research – finding new effects.

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Bosco ◽  
Joshua Carp ◽  
James G. Field ◽  
Hans IJzerman ◽  
Melissa Lewis ◽  
...  

Open Science Collaboration (in press). Maximizing the reproducibility of your research. In S. O. Lilienfeld & I. D. Waldman (Eds.), Psychological Science Under Scrutiny: Recent Challenges and Proposed Solutions. New York, NY: Wiley.


2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Harrison Dekker ◽  
Amy Riegelman

As guest editors, we are excited to publish this special double issue of IASSIST Quarterly. The topics of reproducibility, replicability, and transparency have been addressed in past issues of IASSIST Quarterly and at the IASSIST conference, but this double issue is entirely focused on these issues. In recent years, efforts “to improve the credibility of science by advancing transparency, reproducibility, rigor, and ethics in research” have gained momentum in the social sciences (Center for Effective Global Action, 2020). While few question the spirit of the reproducibility and research transparency movement, it faces significant challenges because it goes against the grain of established practice. We believe the data services community is in a unique position to help advance this movement given our data and technical expertise, training and consulting work, international scope, and established role in data management and preservation, and more. As evidence of the movement, several initiatives exist to support research reproducibility infrastructure and data preservation efforts: Center for Open Science (COS) / Open Science Framework (OSF)[i] Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS)[ii] CUrating for REproducibility (CURE)[iii] Project Tier[iv] Data Curation Network[v] UK Reproducibility Network[vi] While many new initiatives have launched in recent years, prior to the now commonly used phrase “reproducibility crisis” and Ioannidis publishing the essay, “Why Most Published Research Findings are False,” we know that the data services community was supporting reproducibility in a variety of ways (e.g., data management, data preservation, metadata standards) in wellestablished consortiums such as Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) (Ioannidis, 2005). The articles in this issue comprise several very important aspects of reproducible research: Identification of barriers to reproducibility and solutions to such barriers Evidence synthesis as related to transparent reporting and reproducibility Reflection on how information professionals, researchers, and librarians perceive the reproducibility crisis and how they can partner to help solve it. The issue begins with “Reproducibility literature analysis” which looks at existing resources and literature to identify barriers to reproducibility and potential solutions. The authors have compiled a comprehensive list of resources with annotations that include definitions of key concepts pertinent to the reproducibility crisis. The next article addresses data reuse from the perspective of a large research university. The authors examine instances of both successful and failed data reuse instances and identify best practices for librarians interested in conducting research involving the common forms of data collected in an academic library. Systematic reviews are a research approach that involves the quantitative and/or qualitative synthesis of data collected through a comprehensive literature review.  “Methods reporting that supports reader confidence for systematic reviews in psychology” looks at the reproducibility of electronic literature searches reported in psychology systematic reviews. A fundamental challenge in reproducing or replicating computational results is the need for researchers to make available the code used in producing these results. But sharing code and having it to run correctly for another user can present significant technical challenges. In “Reproducibility, preservation, and access to research with Reprozip, Reproserver” the authors describe open source software that they are developing to address these challenges.  Taking a published article and attempting to reproduce the results, is an exercise that is sometimes used in academic courses to highlight the inherent difficulty of the process. The final article in this issue, “ReprohackNL 2019: How libraries can promote research reproducibility through community engagement” describes an innovative library-based variation to this exercise.   Harrison Dekker, Data Librarian, University of Rhode Island Amy Riegelman, Social Sciences Librarian, University of Minnesota   References Center for Effective Global Action (2020), About the Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences. Available at: https://www.bitss.org/about (accessed 23 June 2020). Ioannidis, J.P. (2005) ‘Why most published research findings are false’, PLoS Medicine, 2(8), p. e124.  doi:  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124   [i] https://osf.io [ii] https://www.bitss.org/ [iii] http://cure.web.unc.edu [iv] https://www.projecttier.org/ [v] https://datacurationnetwork.org/ [vi] https://ukrn.org


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kendal N. Smith ◽  
Matthew C. Makel

In response to concerns about the credibility of many published research findings, open science reforms such as preregistration, data sharing, and alternative forms of publication are being increasingly adopted across scientific communities. Although journals in giftedness and advanced academics research have already implemented several of these practices, they remain unfamiliar to some researchers. In this informal conversation, Kendal Smith and Matthew Makel discuss how they came to know and use open science practices; open science values; benefits and objections; and their future aspirations for open science practices in gifted education research. Their conversation aims to help make open science practices more understandable and actionable for both early career and established researchers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim I. Krueger ◽  
Patrick R. Heck

The practice of Significance Testing (ST) remains widespread in psychological science despite continual criticism of its flaws and abuses. Using simulation experiments, we address four concerns about ST and for two of these we compare ST’s performance with prominent alternatives. We find the following: First, the p values delivered by ST predict the posterior probability of the tested hypothesis well under many research conditions. Second, low p values support inductive inferences because they are most likely to occur when the tested hypothesis is false. Third, p values track likelihood ratios without raising the uncertainties of relative inference. Fourth, p values predict the replicability of research findings better than confidence intervals do. Given these results, we conclude that p values may be used judiciously as a heuristic tool for inductive inference. Yet, p values cannot bear the full burden of inference. We encourage researchers to be flexible in their selection and use of statistical methods.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Brysbaert

At first sight, it is a no-brainer to make publicly funded research findings freely available to everyone. Ever increasing pay walls are unsustainable and publishers have been pushing their luck in the last decades. On the other hand, free lunches do not exist either. It is unrealistic for researchers to expect that their manuscripts can be evaluated and published for eternity without someone paying something. Based on my experiences, I think that commercial companies competing against each other are still the best guarantee for good service and innovation (e.g., for manuscript submission and handling). However, these companies must be reined in by people who put the ideals of scientific progress and accessibility first. Otherwise, temptations for easy profit are too large. There is no good alternative to learned societies governed by the researchers themselves. Complementary to the role of learned societies, grant funding agencies have the unique power to nudge researchers toward open science practices and to make sure that the findings of the research they support are copied to secure systems immune to the siren call of profit making.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Brydges

Objectives: Research has found evidence of publication bias, questionable research practices (QRPs), and low statistical power in published psychological journal articles. Isaacowitz’s (2018) editorial in the Journals of Gerontology Series B, Psychological Sciences called for investigation of these issues in gerontological research. The current study presents meta-research findings based on published research to explore if there is evidence of these practices in gerontological research. Method: 14,481 test statistics and p values were extracted from articles published in eight top gerontological psychology journals since 2000. Frequentist and Bayesian caliper tests were used to test for publication bias and QRPs (specifically, p-hacking and incorrect rounding of p values). A z-curve analysis was used to estimate average statistical power across studies.Results: Strong evidence of publication bias was observed, and average statistical power was approximately .70 – below the recommended .80 level. Evidence of p-hacking was mixed. Evidence of incorrect rounding of p values was inconclusive.Discussion: Gerontological research is not immune to publication bias, QRPs, and low statistical power. Researchers, journals, institutions, and funding bodies are encouraged to adopt open and transparent research practices, and using Registered Reports as an alternative article type to minimize publication bias and QRPs, and increase statistical power.


2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-123
Author(s):  
Kendal N. Smith ◽  
Matthew C. Makel

In response to concerns about the credibility of many published research findings, open science reforms such as preregistration, data sharing, and alternative forms of publication are being increasingly adopted across scientific communities. Although journals on giftedness and advanced academic research have already implemented several of these practices, they remain unfamiliar to some researchers. In this informal conversation, Kendal Smith and Matthew Makel discuss how they came to know and use open science practices, the values of open science, benefits and objections, and their future aspirations for open science practices in gifted education research. Their conversation aims to help make open science practices more understandable and actionable for both early career and established researchers.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ramsey

The credibility of psychological science has been questioned recently, due to low levels of reproducibility and the routine use of inadequate research practices (Chambers, 2017; Open Science Collaboration, 2015; Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn, 2011). In response, wide-ranging reform to scientific practice has been proposed (e.g., Munafò et al., 2017), which has been dubbed a “credibility revolution” (Vazire, 2018). My aim here is to advocate why and how we should embrace such reform, and discuss the likely implications.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Bosnjak ◽  
Christian Fiebach ◽  
David Thomas Mellor ◽  
Stefanie Mueller ◽  
Daryl Brian O'Connor ◽  
...  

Recent years have seen dramatic changes in research practices in psychological science. In particular, preregistration of study plans prior to conducting a study has been identified as an important tool to help increase the transparency of science and to improve the robustness of psychological research findings. This article presents the Psychological Research Preregistration-Quantitative (PRP-QUANT) Template produced by a Joint Psychological Societies Preregistration Task Force consisting of the American Psychological Association (APA), British Psychological Society (BPS) and German Psychological Society (DGPs), supported by the Center for Open Science (COS) and the Leibniz Institute for Psychology (ZPID). The goal of the Task Force was to provide the psychological community with a consensus template for the preregistration of quantitative research in psychology, one with wide coverage and the ability, if necessary, to adapt to specific journals, disciplines and researcher needs. This article covers the structure and use of the PRP-QUANT template, while outlining and discussing the benefits of its use for researchers, authors, funders and other relevant stakeholders. We hope that by introducing this template and by demonstrating the support of preregistration by major academic psychological societies, we will facilitate an increase in preregistration practices and thereby also the further advancement of transparency and knowledge-sharing in the psychological sciences.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 181534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonhard Held

The concept of intrinsic credibility has been recently introduced to check the credibility of ‘out of the blue’ findings without any prior support. A significant result is deemed intrinsically credible if it is in conflict with a sceptical prior derived from the very same data that would make the effect just non-significant. In this paper, I propose to use Bayesian prior-predictive tail probabilities to assess intrinsic credibility. For the standard 5% significance level, this leads to a new p -value threshold that is remarkably close to the recently proposed p < 0.005 standard. I also introduce the credibility ratio, the ratio of the upper to the lower limit (or vice versa ) of a confidence interval for a significant effect size. I show that the credibility ratio has to be smaller than 5.8 such that a significant finding is also intrinsically credible. Finally, a p -value for intrinsic credibility is proposed that is a simple function of the ordinary p -value and has a direct frequentist interpretation in terms of the probability of replicating an effect. An application to data from the Open Science Collaboration study on the reproducibility of psychological science suggests that intrinsic credibility of the original experiment is better suited to predict the success of a replication experiment than standard significance.


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