scholarly journals THE SHORELINE RESPONSE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

2008 ◽  
Vol 2008 (1) ◽  
pp. 443-449
Author(s):  
Edward H. Owens ◽  
Gary A. Sergy
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Coastal Marine ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Human Use ◽  
Monitoring Response ◽  
Selection Of

ABSTRACT The decision process that generates oil spill response objectives, strategies and tactics at regional and site-specific scales is a form of risk management. Typically this decision process involves an analysis of the probabilities and consequences of events and the selection of actions to achieve the defined objective(s). Coastal marine, lake and river oil spills frequently are the more difficult ones to manage due to the dynamics and complexity of the environment in terms of physical processes, ecosystem variability and sensitivity, and human use activities. The development of a systematic approach to decision-making is intended to address and reduce the complexity of these issues. This can be achieved by the identification of the elemental components of a response operation in terms of four phases: preplanning; reactive response; planned response; and the completion and monitoring response phase. The framework of the decision process within each of the three response phases is a logical and systematic sequence of nine integrated steps. This discussion explains the purpose and actions that are involved in each step and the manner in which the different components relate to each other.

METACOGNITIVE DECISION MAKING IN OIL SPILL RESPONSE-BEHAVIORAL BIAS IN RELATION TO PERCEIVED RISK

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 1453-1470
Author(s):  
LT Christopher M. Kimrey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Sense Making ◽  
Self Awareness ◽  
Behavioral Bias ◽  
Oil Spill Response

ABSTRACT 2017-205 Catastrophic events like Deepwater Horizon, Exxon Valdez, major hurricanes, and other such anomalies have a tendency to overwhelm the initial crisis management leadership due to the chaotic nature of the event. The inability to quickly and accurately make critical assessments about the magnitude and complexity of the emerging catastrophe can spell disaster for crisis managers long before the response ever truly takes shape. This paper argues for the application of metacognitive models for sense and decision-making. Rather than providing tools and checklists as a recipe for success, this paper endeavors to provide awareness of the cognitive processes and heuristics that tend to emerge in crises including major oil spills, making emergency managers aware of their existence and potential impacts. Awareness, we argue, leads to recognition and self-awareness of key behavioral patterns and biases. The skill of metacognition—thinking about thinking—is what we endeavor to build through this work. Using a literature review and cogent application to oil spill response, this paper reviews contemporary theories on metacognition and sense-making, as well as concepts of behavioral bias and risk perception in catastrophic environments. When catastrophe occurs—and history has proven they will—the incident itself and the external pressures of its perceived management arguably emerge simultaneously, but not necessarily in tandem with one another. Previous spills have demonstrated how a mismanaged incident can result in an unwieldy and caustic confluence of external forces. This paper provides an awareness of biases that lead to mismanagement and apply for the first time a summary of concepts of sense-making and metacognition to major oil spill response. The views and ideas expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Coast Guard or Department of Homeland Security.

Investment Analysis for Deepwater Oil and Gas Field Developments

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Critsinelis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Investment Analysis ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Economic Return ◽  
Oil And Gas Field ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Selection Of

The effective stewardship of capital is cardinal to ensure economic return to compensate shareholders for capital invested at risk. This paper outlines how investment analysis can be used to improve the decision-making process of deepwater oil and gas field developments. The paper focuses on the key drivers and boundary conditions that impact the economics of the entire field life cycle. It also highlights the relationships between these key drivers and the selection of the layout and main subsystems of the field architecture. A typical deepwater field scenario is used to illustrate the methodology of investment analysis and associated simulations that reflect the uncertainties along the stages of the decision process. Sensitivity analysis is utilized to identify how much each uncertain driver contributes to the uncertainty in the project economic outcome.

TRACKING BUOYS FOR OIL SPILLS

1995 ◽  
Vol 1995 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron H. Goodman ◽  
Debra Simecek-Beatty ◽  
Don Hodgins
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Positioning Errors ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
And Training ◽  
Selection Of

ABSTRACT The use of tracking buoys in oil spill response, planning, and training and criteria for the selection of these buoys were studied in conjunction with an experiment conducted in the Gulf of Mexico during March 1994 on the relative motions of several oil spill drifter buoys. For the test, wood chips and cottonseed hulls were used to simulate the motion of the oil. Six different types of buoys and three different positioning and tracking systems, in various combinations, were tested. The first day of the program was conducted in Galveston Bay, the second in the Gulf of Mexico off Galveston. Significant differences were noted in the movements of the various buoys. Analysis of the data from these experiments suggests that tracking of the buoys should occur for a longer time period than in the experiments in order to reduce the influence of positioning errors.

Use of Dispersants in the United States: Perception or Reality?

1991 ◽  
Vol 1991 (1) ◽  
pp. 389-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Cunningham ◽  
Karen A. Sahatjian ◽  
Chris Meyers ◽  
Gary Yoshioka ◽  
Julie M. Jordan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Unfavorable Weather

ABSTRACT Dispersants have been a controversial oil spill response technique since their introduction during the Torrey Canyon oil spill off the coast of the United Kingdom in 1967. Despite reductions in the toxicity of dispersants and improvements in their application since then, dispersants have not been used extensively in the United States because of logistical difficulties, unfavorable weather conditions, and a lack of demonstrated effectiveness during actual spill conditions. In addition, there is a widely held perception in the United States that dispersant use has been limited by complex authorization procedures. This paper reviews the dispersant policies of several European nations and Canada and compares them with those of the United States. Recent developments in U. S. dispersant policy are outlined, particularly those designed to expedite decision making. The paper concludes by examining some recent U. S. oil spills in which dispersant use was considered.

scholarly journals Decision making in fuzzy environment

2007 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 227-232
Author(s):  
Vladimír Konečný
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
New Product ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
View Selection ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Employment Increase ◽  
Selection Of

This paper is attended on simple method for support decision process in their final stage, i.e. by selection of suitable variant, from a set acceptable variant and by using fuzzy sets. In this entry are presented two approaches to solution: one without acceptance of weights point of view selection and second with acceptance weights point of view selection, including a method easy determination weights view points.Approaches are documented with sample decision making about choice new product for extension of produce. As a view points ware selected: costs realization, time realization, employment increase, benefit, environmental impact.

Treatment and Cleanup Standards: The Development of End-Point Criteria for Oil Spills

2003 ◽  
Vol 2003 (1) ◽  
pp. 1163-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward H. Owens ◽  
Gary A. Sergy
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Analytical Techniques ◽  
Roles And Responsibilities ◽  
End Point ◽  
Quantitative Measurements ◽  
Appropriate Treatment ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Hydrocarbon Sources ◽  
Logistic Support

ABSTRACT Every oil spill response operation has an end point when treatment or cleanup is stopped. How an end point is reached involves unique decisions that reflect the individuality of each spill incident. Factors involved in the decision process include assessments of the probable environmental and socioeconomic effects of the spill, the rate of natural recovery, the effects of the various treatment or cleanup options, and the effects of increasingly more stringent criteria or standards. Other factors that influence the decision process include the roles and responsibilities of the interested parties and the perceptions of the public sector. The establishment of end-point criteria is an essential step at the outset of a spill response in order to provide a foundation for selecting appropriate treatment or cleanup strategies and tactics and for planning operations activities and logistic support. A variety of techniques can be applied to measure treatment or cleanup end points, and typically these are qualitative rather than quantitative measurements. Field analytical techniques that define the presence or absence of hydrocarbons can be used to measure a treatment end point, but this approach can be complicated if other hydrocarbon sources are present in the affected area. Chemical and toxicological data may be appropriate for damage assessment studies but it may well be impractical, or even illogical, to expect that analytical techniques can provide accurate and timely assessments for measuring the treatment or cleanup end point in all circumstances.

scholarly journals Outdoor Recreation Damages from Oil Spills: Why Current Assessments are Typically Wrong and What can be Done to Fix Them

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heath Byrd ◽  
Theodore Tomasi
Keyword(s):  
Outdoor Recreation ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Oil Pollution ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Potential Bias ◽  
Damage Awards ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Human Use ◽  
Improved Methods ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract This study reviews methods for assessing natural resource damages to outdoor recreation resulting from oil spills, often a substantial component of total damages. The usual approach for assessing recreational damages, called value-to-cost (VTC), is deficient. It almost always provides a biased estimate of damages because it ignores the benefits of restoration projects on which damage awards must be spent. VTC is the least preferred method under the Oil Pollution Act NRDA regulations unless alternative methods are cost-prohibitive. This paper first reviews the methods available for computing damages, noting the differences among them. We provide a model for evaluating alternative methods and a decision tree for selection of VTC or alternative approaches. Next, we delve deeper into arguments pro and con VTC, and provide recommendations for improvements in the NRDA process to incorporate improved methods that recognize the benefits of restoration where appropriate. We provide evidence on the benefits of human use restoration projects, which both reveal the magnitude of potential bias of the VTC approach and provide a basis for improved assessment methods. The bias in VTC is proportional to the ratio of benefits of human use restoration projects to their costs (the BCR). A BCR of 4 implies that a VTC estimate of damages is biased upwards by 400%. We review existing evidence on the BCR and present preliminary estimates from a pilot study of BCRs for actual human use restoration projects. The paper concludes with recommendations for continued research that we believe would simultaneously improve the accuracy of future assessments while reducing transaction costs.

scholarly journals The Use of Dispersants in Marine Oil Spill Response

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen K. White ◽  
Stacee Karras
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Biological Effects ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Alternative Response ◽  
Response Options ◽  
Marine Oil ◽  
Oil Spill Response

ABSTRACT Each marine oil spill presents unique circumstances and challenges that require careful consideration of which response options are most appropriate for mitigating impacts to local communities and the environment, which may include the use of dispersants. Dispersants are chemical countermeasures that reduce the amount of floating oil by promoting the formation of small droplets that remain or become entrained in the water column, where they are subjected to greater dissolution and dilution. During the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, an unprecedented volume of dispersants was used at the surface and in the deep ocean. The spill stimulated interest and funding for research on oil spill science, especially regarding dispersant use. Building on two previous reports and using this new information, a committee of experts convened by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) conducted a review and evaluation of the science on dispersant use. The committee's review focused on various aspects of dispersant use in offshore marine oil spills, including dispersant and oil fate and transport, human health considerations, biological effects, decision making, and alternative response options, among others. The findings and recommendations of the committee were published in the recent report, The Use of Dispersants in Marine Oil Spill Response (available for free download at https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25161/the-use-of-dispersants-in-marine-oil-spill-response). The presentation summarizes the committee's findings and recommendations within the context of oil spill response science and technology. A key area of consideration is how they relate to and support a robust decision making process in the event dispersants are considered for use in future spills.

scholarly journals A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE CAPABILITY OF ALTERNATIVE MIXED INTEGER PROGRAMMING FORMULATIONS

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 561-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baris KECECI ◽  
Tusan DERYA ◽  
Esra DINLER ◽  
Yusuf Tansel IC
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Routing Problem ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Topsis Approach ◽  
Selection Of

In selecting the best mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation the important issue is to figure out how to evaluate the performance of each candidate formulation in terms of selected criteria. The main objective of this study is to propose a systematic approach to guide the selection of the best MILP formulation among the alternatives according to the needs of the decision maker. For this reason we consider the problem of “selecting the most appropriate MILP formulation for a certain type of decision maker” as a multi-criteria decision making problem and present an integrated AHP-TOPSIS decision making methodology to select the most appropriate formula­tion. As an example the proposed decision making methodology is implemented on the selection of the MILP formulations of the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP). A numerical example is provided for illustrative purposes. As a result, the proposed decision model can be a tool for the decision makers (here they are the scientists, engineers and practitioners) who intend to choose the appropriate mathematical model(s) among the alternatives according to their needs on their studies. The integrated AHP-TOPSIS approach can simply be incorporated into a computer-based decision support system since it has simplicity in both computation and application.

Selection of Contractor Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Tools

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 139-142
Author(s):  
S.PUSHPARANI S.PUSHPARANI ◽  
◽  
Dr.S.SENTHAMILKUMAR Dr.S.SENTHAMILKUMAR
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Selection Of
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