Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Settlements in the Niger-benue Trough, Central Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 50-67
Author(s):  
O. O. Ifatimehin ◽  
P. S. U. Eneche ◽  
N. A. Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Benue Trough ◽  
Livelihood Assets

Flooding has become a household phenomenon, particularly for communities in close proximity or situated in floodplain areas, although only on extreme cases that serious alarms are given. The brunt of this study assessed the flood vulnerability levels of settlements located in the Niger-Benue Trough of Central Nigeria by considering their livelihood assets. Data were sourced via a random administration of questionnaire in 36 communities in the study area earmarked; water level and discharge data obtained; communities were mapped; and remotely sensed data (Spot 5 and the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data were retrieved and analyzed using ArcGIS 10.5 and the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 25) software. The simulated worst-case scenario of flooding revealed 22 settlements were inundated in the 2019 flood between July – September, covering larger areas before the confluence with more than 50% of the area under the high and moderately high-risk zones. Natural and physical livelihood assets were vulnerable and seriously damaged with indices greater than 3.0, while human, financial and social assets were all below 3.0. Generally, vulnerability index computed for all communities was 2.82, indicating moderate vulnerability of the communities to the flood event of 2019. Also, the Pearson correlation test revealed a strong, positive relationship (r = .769, α = .036) between the level of communities’ flood vulnerability and the livelihood assets in the study. It was therefore recommended that yearly flood events are worth simulating to aid prioritization of decisions and development of a comprehensive flood management plan for the area.

scholarly journals Effect of Land Cover Change on Atlantic Forest Fragmentation in Rio Largo, Al, Brazil

2020 ◽  
pp. 102-114
Author(s):  
Lucas Galdino da Silva ◽  
Arthur Costa Falcão Tavares ◽  
Carlos Frederico Lins E. Silva Brandão ◽  
João Pedro dos Santos Verçosa ◽  
Raquel Elvira Cola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Forest Fragmentation ◽  
Atlantic Forest ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Aerial Images ◽  
Forest Fragments ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Digital Format

This study's objective was to analyze the effect of land cover change, between 1965 and 2018, using statistical metrics and geoprocessing tools. And consequently, to provide information of area (ha) and spatial fragmentation of the Atlantic Forest in the municipality of Rio Largo/AL, Brazil. The samples were collected and transferred by CECA, CADEH, and INCRA, between November 2019 and April 2020. The basic materials used in this work were multi-temporal aerial images in digital format, derived from the 1965 aerophotogrametric survey on the scale 1:25000, belonging to the collection of the Engineering and Agrarian Sciences Campus - UFAL, and images of Landsat satellites (5 and 8) processed and made available by the Mapbiomas Project. The statistic landscape metrics were calculated using Landscape ecology Statistics (LECOs), a QGIS plugin. The analysis of forest fragmentation areas over the 53 years showed a reduction between 32.17% (1965) and 12.04% (2018) concerning the total extension of the municipality. In 1965, the average area obtained from 49 fragments was 201.13 ha. The values show a higher distance of forest fragments between 1965 and 1989, and disappearance by 2018.The Pearson correlation coefficient for 1965 and 2018 presented the value of r = -0.525, indicating a moderate and negative correlation between the mean values of areas (ha) of forest fragments and the number of forest fragments. The worst-case scenario for the maintenance of native forests occurred in 1989, where the reduction of continuous forest areas had 10.87 ha for forest area average, being spaced in 327 fragments. In the period 1986 and 1996, there was a decrease in fragmentation, reaching 200 fragments. In 1996 and 1997, there was an imbalance in forest maintenance, again increasing the number of fragments to 250 areas, and being explained by the loosening of surveillance in previous years, followed by deforestation.

scholarly journals Flood Vulnerability Mapping of Lagos Island and Eti-Osa Local Government Areas Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-255
Author(s):  
D. N. Olayinka ◽  
H. E. Irivbogbe
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Spatial Modelling ◽  
Comparison Method ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Vulnerability Mapping ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Flood Vulnerability

This study discusses the assessment and analysis of areas vulnerable to flooding in Eti-Osa and Lagos Island Local Government areas of Lagos state, using Geographic Information System (GIS), LIDAR and spatial modelling techniques. These areas require quality assessment of their level of vulnerability to floods, in order to take adequate measures and develop programs that will help prevent the impacts of flooding. A set of indicators influencing flooding, which are elevation, slope, flow accumulation and land use, were identified and used in the study. A vulnerability scale of (1 – 3) was developed, where 1 represents ‘low’, 2 represents ‘moderate’ and 3 represents ‘high’. The indicators identified were reclassified in the vulnerability scale. The flood vulnerability maps, in three different case scenarios, were created using the weighted overlay of the reclassified indicators identified. The weights used are determined by a Pairwise comparison method (Analytical Hierarchical Approach (AHP). The mapping method was implemented in ArcGIS environment. The vulnerability mapping results show that for a normal case scenario, 27.15% of the area have high vulnerability, 49.79% have moderate vulnerability and 23.06% have low vulnerability. However, for a worst-case scenario, 60.01% have high vulnerability, 37.71% have moderate vulnerability and 2.28% have low vulnerability. Buildings at risk and the extent of areas at risk were determined and relevant recommendations were made.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽  
Wessam Mesbah ◽  
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽  
Ali T. Alawami
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bidding Strategies ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

scholarly journals A Thermally Conductive Pt/AAO Catalyst for Hydrogen Passive Autocatalytic Recombination

Catalysts ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Alina E. Kozhukhova ◽  
Stephanus P. du Preez ◽  
Aleksander A. Malakhov ◽  
Dmitri G. Bessarabov
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Particle Size ◽  
Combustion Temperature ◽  
Volume Fraction ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Al Alloy ◽  
Impregnation Method ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Thermal Distribution

In this study, a Pt/anodized aluminum oxide (AAO) catalyst was prepared by the anodization of an Al alloy (Al6082, 97.5% Al), followed by the incorporation of Pt via an incipient wet impregnation method. Then, the Pt/AAO catalyst was evaluated for autocatalytic hydrogen recombination. The Pt/AAO catalyst’s morphological characteristics were determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The average Pt particle size was determined to be 3.0 ± 0.6 nm. This Pt/AAO catalyst was tested for the combustion of lean hydrogen (0.5–4 vol% H2 in the air) in a recombiner section testing station. The thermal distribution throughout the catalytic surface was investigated at 3 vol% hydrogen (H2) using an infrared camera. The Al/AAO system had a high thermal conductivity, which prevents the formation of hotspots (areas where localized surface temperature is higher than an average temperature across the entire catalyst surface). In turn, the Pt stability was enhanced during catalytic hydrogen combustion (CHC). A temperature gradient over 70 mm of the Pt/AAO catalyst was 23 °C and 42 °C for catalysts with uniform and nonuniform (worst-case scenario) Pt distributions. The commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+ was used to compare the experimentally observed and numerically simulated thermal distribution of the Pt/AAO catalyst. The effect of the initial H2 volume fraction on the combustion temperature and conversion of H2 was investigated. The activation energy for CHC on the Pt/AAO catalyst was 19.2 kJ/mol. Prolonged CHC was performed to assess the durability (reactive metal stability and catalytic activity) of the Pt/AAO catalyst. A stable combustion temperature of 162.8 ± 8.0 °C was maintained over 530 h of CHC. To confirm that Pt aggregation was avoided, the Pt particle size and distribution were determined by TEM before and after prolonged CHC.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Match Demands Using Ball-in-Play versus Whole Match Data in Professional Soccer Players of the English Championship

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Dylan Mernagh ◽  
Anthony Weldon ◽  
Josh Wass ◽  
John Phillips ◽  
Nimai Parmar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Repeated Measures Design ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Peak Match ◽  
Playing Time

This is the first study to report the whole match, ball-in-play (BiP), ball-out-of-play (BoP), and Max BiP (worst case scenario phases of play) demands of professional soccer players competing in the English Championship. Effective playing time per soccer game is typically <60 min. When the ball is out of play, players spend time repositioning themselves, which is likely less physically demanding. Consequently, reporting whole match demands may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. Twenty professional soccer players, categorized by position (defenders, midfielders, and forwards), participated in this study. A repeated measures design was used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data over eight professional soccer matches in the English Championship. Data were divided into whole match and BiP data, and BiP data were further sub-divided into different time points (30–60 s, 60–90 s, and >90 s), providing peak match demands. Whole match demands recorded were compared to BiP and Max BiP, with BiP data excluding all match stoppages, providing a more precise analysis of match demands. Whole match metrics were significantly lower than BiP metrics (p < 0.05), and Max BiP for 30–60 s was significantly higher than periods between 60–90 s and >90 s. No significant differences were found between positions. BiP analysis allows for a more accurate representation of the game and physical demands imposed on professional soccer players. Through having a clearer understanding of maximum game demands in professional soccer, practitioners can design more specific training methods to better prepare players for worst case scenario passages of play.

scholarly journals Trissolcus japonicus (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae) Causes Low Levels of Parasitism in Three North American Pentatomids Under Field Conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua M Milnes ◽  
Elizabeth H Beers
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Classical Biological Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Host Finding ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Egg Masses ◽  
Trissolcus Japonicus

Abstract Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead), an Asian parasitoid of Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), was first detected in North America in 2014. Although testing in quarantine facilities as a candidate for classical biological control is ongoing, adventive populations have appeared in multiple sites in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Extensive laboratory testing of T. japonicus against other North American pentatomids and H. halys has revealed a higher rate of parasitism of H. halys, but not complete host specificity. However, laboratory tests are necessarily artificial, in which many host finding and acceptance cues may be circumvented. We offered sentinel egg masses of three native pentatomid (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) pest species (Chinavia hilaris (Say), Euschistus conspersus Uhler, and Chlorochroa ligata (Say)) in a field paired-host assay in an area with a well-established adventive population of T. japonicus near Vancouver, WA. Overall, 67% of the H. halys egg masses were parasitized by T. japonicus during the 2-yr study. Despite the ‘worst case’ scenario for a field test (close proximity of the paired egg masses), the rate of parasitism (% eggs producing adult wasps) on all three native species was significantly less (0.4–8%) than that on H. halys eggs (77%). The levels of successful parasitism of T. japonicus of the three species are C. hilaris > E. conspersus > C. ligata. The potential impact of T. japonicus on these pentatomids is probably minimal.

scholarly journals Coupling Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations and Statistical Moments for Designing Healthy Indoor Spaces

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shamia Hoque ◽  
Firoza Omar
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Computational Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Air Flow ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Statistical Moments ◽  
Dispersion Pattern ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Indoor Spaces

Cross-contamination between occupants in an indoor space may occur due to transfer of infectious aerosols. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides detailed insight into particle transport in indoor spaces. However, such simulations are site-specific. This study couples CFD with statistical moments and establishes a framework that transitions site-specific results to generating guidelines for designing “healthy” indoor spaces. Eighteen cases were simulated, and three parameters were assessed: inlet/outlet location, air changes per hour, and the presence/absence of desks. Aerosol release due to a simulated “sneeze” in a two-dimensional ventilated space was applied as a test case. Mean, standard deviation, and skewness of the velocity profiles and particle locations gave an overall picture of the spread and movement of the air flow in the domain. A parameter or configuration did not dominate the values, confirming the significance of considering the combined influence of multiple parameters for determining localized air-flow characteristics. Particle clustering occurred more when the inlet was positioned above the outlet. The particle dispersion pattern could be classified into two time zones: “near time”, <60 s, and “far time”, >120 s. Based on dosage, the 18 cases were classified into three groups ranging from worst case scenario to best case scenario.

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