Forecasting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is inherently ambiguous given the current state of virus research

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic many researchers and health advisory institutions have focused on virus spread prediction through epidemiological models. Such models rely on virus- and disease characteristics of which most are uncertain or even unknown for SARS-CoV-2. This study addresses the validity of various assumptions using an epidemiological simulation model. The contributions of this work are twofold. First, we show that multiple scenarios all lead to realistic numbers of deaths and ICU admissions, two observable and verifiable metrics. Second, we test the sensitivity of estimates for the number of infected and immune individuals, and show that these vary strongly between scenarios. Note that the amount of variation measured in this study is merely a lower bound: epidemiological modeling contains uncertainty on more parameters than the four in this study, and including those as well would lead to an even larger set of possible scenarios. As the level of infection and immunity among the population are particularly important for policy makers, further research on virus and disease progression characteristics is essential. Until that time, epidemiological modeling studies cannot give conclusive results and should come with a careful analysis of several scenarios on virus- and disease characteristics.

The Response of Pakistan to COVID-19 and Current Situation of Disease in the Country

Background: Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) out break was reported for the first time in China and then quickly spread to other countries. In Pakistan, the first case appeared in Sindh province on February 26, 2020, and within a few weeks, more than 100 cases were reported across the country. Currently, all provinces and territories of the country are affected and cases are growing faster every day. Pakistan is among those countries that have problems with health and diagnostic facilities due to poor economic conditions. Objectives: The present study aims to highlight the emergence, spread and control of the disease in Pakistan. Furthermore, it also highlights the response of Pakistan in the management of COVID-19 outbreak, and the country’s contribution in the field of science and technology for the betterment of diagnostic and treatment capabilities against the disease. Methodology: Collection of data was done through national and international forums like Covid-WHO report and COVID-19 Health advisory platform by Ministry of National Health Services Regulation. Results: The important mean for prevention is the proper use of Standard Operating Procedure (SOPs). Quarantine and isolation centers help in limiting the spread of this deadly disease. Conclusion: It is concluded that no vaccine is available for the treatment of this emerging disease so far. The only prevention is to properly and strictly follow the SOPs guidelines.

AYUSH Ministry’s Health Advisory in COVID-19-A Critical Review

Outbreak of “Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2)” infection took place in “Wuhan, Hubei Province, China” in December 2019, which spread across all over the Globe. WHO officially termed the disease caused by the new Coronavirus as “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)” on 12 February 2020. Being viral disease, at present no specific treatment or vaccines approved for COVID-19. Social distancing and practicing healthy lifestyle to boost immunity are the best possible options to deal with it. Though there is progress in Medical science regarding immunization and development of medicine, there is lack of vaccines for prevention of many viruses and effective antiviral medicines. India’s Ministry of traditional medicine or AYUSH (Ayurveda, Unani, Siddha, Homeopathy) issued “Advisory” advocating preventive measures against the viral infection on 29 January 2020. There is severe criticism to “Advisory of AYUSH Ministry” from Indian Medical experts across the Nation for making such declaration in this global health crisis. The traditional healthcare system of the Nation offers supporting lifestyle for immunity enhancement which aids in keeping away from different kinds of infectious ailments. In recently occurred Corona epidemic it has been noted that it mainly affects the Respiratory system. AYUSH Ministry issued “The Advisory” to enhance defensive mechanism of the body for prevention of disease and not declared it as a curative measure for the Corona virus disease. This review focuses on the efficacy of the measures recommended by AYUSH Ministry on the basis of literature and researches available on them.