scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of Devaluation the Exchange Rate on Inflation: A Cause Study of Iraq Using ARDL Model

Webology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 475-486
Author(s):  
Niam A. Fawaz ◽  
Saad A. Hamaad
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
General Level ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate tool is one of the most important macroeconomic tools that affect many variables, including the general level of prices, investment, import and export. In the case of a deteriorating economy such as the Iraqi economy, which suffers from a high import rate of final goods and intermediate goods, which are considered inputs to production processes, means exit Foreign exchange to abroad that affects the position of the balance of payments and its imbalance. It is very abnormal for countries to reduce the value of their currency exchange for financing reasons related to financing their public budget deficit without taking into account macroeconomic variables. All of these matters reflect a clear confusion of the fiscal and the monetary policies. The results of the current study by using the ARDL model have proven the direct impact of currency devaluation on inflation.

scholarly journals Web Intelligent for Forecasting Exchange Rate Currency using Clever Extraction Agent Combine with Financial Data Mining

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Khammapun Khantanapoka
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Forecasting ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pattern Index

From the current economic climate results in fluctuations of currency exchange rates in all countries. Since the most countries use USD as the reference exchange rate. The exchange rate will change from day to day so variety of factors which affect the exchange rate forecasting in the exchange rates in advance are critical to evaluate for the impact of the economic system of each country. It is important for investment decisions, exports, and profitability in the money market. It was reported on website (www) in the daily exchange rate changes. We use clever search agent (CSA) gather information from financial website generate to financial data mining. Kohonen Neural Networks is the method to determine similarity of internet documents using pattern index of financial document. And Ontology Structure of Sentence is the method to determine keyword using pattern index of financial content. Both are important components of Financial Data Mining. It is analyzed for exchange rate forecasting about USD/ Pounds. Our experimental forecast exchange rates for currency's USD / Great Britain Pounds by compare three algorithms as fallows GA, Meiosis Genetic Algorithms (MGA). This research propose new algorithm is called Dash Predator Swarm Optimization (DP2SO) which are accurate in prediction than other methods in generation of Genetic algorithm (GA) 35.83-41.52% which it depend on the accuracy of the information in each factor which are important finance dataset. It will present the future trends of exchange rate to the individual website.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ON THE IRAQI BALANCE OF ‎PAYMENTS FOR THE PERIOD (2004-2016)‎

2021 ◽  
Vol 03 (05) ◽  
pp. 281-293
Author(s):  
Abeer Muhammad JASSIM
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Associated Variables

The exchange rate is one of the important tools that are used to protect ‎the local economy from expected shocks, so the research focused on the ‎subject of the impact of this variable on the balance of payments ‎because these two variables have a very close relationship, which ‎consequently affects foreign trade and the structure of the national ‎economy, especially in Iraq, and contributes to treating various ‎imbalances of the local economy and restore balance and stability to ‎most of its associated variables. Keywords: Economy, Iraqi Balance, Local Economy

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows: Evidence from China, Pakistan and India

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Ahmed Shaikh ◽  
Ouyang Hongbing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Series Data ◽  
General Level ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade flows in case of China, Pakistan and India by using the time series data from 1980 to 2013. Most of the researchers have advocated that exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with general level of trade. In this study we have used the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a proxy for volatility. And to investigate this relationship, we have applied the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach for co-integration which estimates the short and long run relationship among the variables for the said period. The results of this empirical work have suggested that exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with Chinese exports in short run while positively associated in long run. However, in the case of Pakistan and India both in the short run and long run, the exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with total volume of trade.

Impact of Monetary Policies on the Exchange Rate and Global Trade Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Rabnawaz Khan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Conversion Factors ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The impact of monetary policies and their implementation by the exchange rate covered the economic condition of Ghana. The social inclusion and conversion factors change the implemented policies of nations, where the real price, trade, technology, a price rate, and price level of ratio take an important part of growth. The reform of the financial sector favors the free-floating of the exchange rate and global trade under the premise of flexible exchange rates. The tragedy of country growth and exchange rate toward a trajectory of growth with the growth-enhancing effect through social inclusion, conversion factors, price level ratio, exchange rate, merchant rate, export, and trade services. The research study is based on the secondary study and social inclusion equity indicators with public resources, building human resources and social protection for economic development has determined. Different evidence and trade indicators classify the monetary policies. The significant influence of growth and internal policies has affected trade and exchange rates with growth and reserve policies. The results have computed by linear regression and it proved that social inclusion and alternative conversion factors impact on global trade and create short term binary relationships. 

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON MONETARY POLICY

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 1337-1342
Author(s):  
Vesna Korunoska ◽  
Biljana Mitrovic ◽  
Pavle Trpeski
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper monitors the balance of payments in the Republic of N. Macedonia, which determines the amount of the exchange rate through the supply and demand of foreign currency, as well as the impact of the exchange rate on the balance of payments movements. Real exchange rates are essentially equilibrium exchange rates. exchange rate that will keep the balance of payments in balance without taking measures for foreign exchange control, without pronounced inflation and deflationary tendencies and without constant expectation of monetary and foreign exchange reserves.There are several methods by which balance of payments can be established: by devaluation, by currency control and by deflation. When considering the relationship between the national currency exchange rate and the balance of payments of a national economy in terms of their interconnections, one should depart from their causal link of impacts. The exchange rate affects the balance of payments, as well as the balance of payments affects the exchange rate.The first part of the paper elaborates in detail the key activities of the balance of payments adjustment and the exchange rate adjustment, as well as their mutual impact.We use the adjustment mechanism to restore balance once the initial equilibrium has been disturbed. The payment adjustment process takes two different forms. One, under certain conditions, has adjustment factors that automatically contribute to balancing. Second, in the event that automatic adjustment fails to strike a balance, the government adopts a discretionary policy to achieve this goal.

scholarly journals Estimation Of The Marshall-Lerner Condition For Namibia

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Hinaunye Eita
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Trade Elasticities ◽  
World Income ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

According to the Marshall-Lerner condition, the sum of trade elasticities should be greater than one for a change in exchange rate to have an impact on the countrys balance of payments. This paper applies cointegrated vector autoregression to empirically estimate the Marshall-Lerner condition in Namibia. The main purpose is to test the impact of change in exchange rate on the trade balance. The paper investigates if trade elasticities are high enough in order to justify a change in exchange rate as an appropriate policy to improve the trade balance of the balance payments. The results indicate that world income has a positive effect on exports, while real exchange rate appreciation discourages exports. Imports respond positively to both domestic income and real exchange rate appreciation. The results indicate that imports and exports respond significantly to a change in the exchange rate and suggest that Marshall-Lerner condition holds for Namibia.

scholarly journals Economic Consequences of Covid-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Behaviour

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-284
Author(s):  
Maheswar Sethi ◽  
Sakti Ranjan Dash ◽  
Rabindra Kumar Swain ◽  
Seema Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Effect Regression ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rate Behaviour

This paper examines the effect of Covid-19 on currency exchange rate behaviour by taking a sample of 37 countries over a period from 4th January 2020 to 30th April 2021. Three variables, such as daily confirmed cases, daily deaths, and the world pandemic uncertainty index (WPUI), are taken as the measure of Covid-19. By applying fixed-effect regression, the study documents that the exchange rate behaves positively to the Covid-19 outbreak, particularly to daily confirmed cases and daily deaths, which implies that the value of other currencies against the US dollar has been depreciated. However, the impact of WPUI is insignificant. On studying the time-varying impact of the pandemic, the study reveals that the Covid-19 has an asymmetric impact on exchange rate over different time frames. Further, it is observed that though daily confirmed cases and daily deaths show a uniform effect, WPUI puts an asymmetric effect on the exchange rate owing to the nature of economies.

scholarly journals MODEL ESTIMASI GARCH DALAM MENGUKUR KINERJA NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (02) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Imelda Saluza
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
High Data ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rates ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is determined by the demand and supply relationship of the currency. If the demand for a currency increases, while the supply remains or even decreases, then the exchange rate will rise vice versa. The ups and downs of exchange rates on the money market indicate the magnitude of the volatility that occurs in the currency of a State against the currencies of other countries. The volatility phenomenon indicates difficulty in analyzing the exchange rate. Increasing volatility indicates an even greater movement of currency exchange rates even if currency exchange rates experience extreme volatility resulting in economic instability both from the micro and macro sides. The high volatility seen from the pattern of price movements that occur in financial markets, and the impact that can be generated from the high volatility data is the error that will have a variance that is not constant. That is, a relatively high data variability at a time indicates the presence of heteroscedasticity. Heteroscedasticity can lead to errors in drawing a conclusion to the estimated model obtained. Therefore, we need a model that is able to solve the problem that is Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model in order to get more accurate estimation model to estimate exchange rate. From the simulation result, all data contain the volatility seen from the result of heteroscedasticity test, and obtained estimation model for all data.

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