recurrent patterns
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2022 ◽  
pp. 004912412110675
Michael Schultz

This paper presents a model of recurrent multinomial sequences. Though there exists a quite considerable literature on modeling autocorrelation in numerical data and sequences of categorical outcomes, there is currently no systematic method of modeling patterns of recurrence in categorical sequences. This paper develops a means of discovering recurrent patterns by employing a more restrictive Markov assumption. The resulting model, which I call the recurrent multinomial model, provides a parsimonious representation of recurrent sequences, enabling the investigation of recurrences on longer time scales than existing models. The utility of recurrent multinomial models is demonstrated by applying them to the case of conversational turn-taking in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Analyses are effectively able to discover norms around turn-reclaiming, participation, and suppression and to evaluate how these norms vary throughout the course of the meeting.

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Alexandre R. da Silva ◽  
Gabriel F.B. Rodrigues ◽  
Geovana Bastos Paluski ◽  
Neida Rodrigues Vieira ◽  
Rafael A. Gregati

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. e0259136
Delphine Vettese ◽  
Trajanka Stavrova ◽  
Antony Borel ◽  
Juan Marín ◽  
Marie-Hélène Moncel ◽  

During the Paleolithic period, bone marrow extraction was an essential source of fat nutrients for hunter-gatherers especially throughout cold and dry seasons. This is attested by the recurrent findings of percussion marks in osteological material from anthropized archaeological levels. Among them some showed indicators that the marrow extraction process was part of a butchery cultural practice, meaning that the inflicted fracturing gestures and techniques were recurrent, standardized and counter-intuitive. In order to assess the weight of the counter-intuitive factor in the percussion mark pattern distribution, we carried out an experiment that by contrast focuses on the intuitive approach of fracturing bones to extract marrow, involving individual without experience in this activity. We wanted to evaluate the influence of bone morphology and the individuals’ behaviour on the distribution of percussion marks. Twelve experimenters broke 120 limb bones, a series of 10 bones per individual. During the experiment, information concerning the fracture of the bones as well as individual behaviour was collected and was subsequently compared to data from the laboratory study of the remains. Then, we applied an innovative GIS (Geographic Information System) method to analyze the distribution of percussion marks to highlight recurrent patterns. Results show that in spite of all the variables there is a high similarity in the distribution of percussion marks which we consider as intuitive patterns. The factor influenced the distribution for the humerus, radius-ulna and tibia series is the bone morphology, while for the femur series individual behaviour seems to have more weight in the distribution. To go further in the subject we need to compare the intuitive models with the distributions of percussion marks registered in fossil assemblages. Thus, it would be possible to propose new hypotheses on butchering practices based on the results presented in this work.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Chaobin He ◽  
Zhiyuan Cai ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Xiaojun Lin

Purpose. The relation between tumor sites of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and recurrence was not fully investigated before. We aimed to describe the differences of recurrent patterns in PDAC of head and body/tail after curative surgery. Methods. The recurrent patterns of PDAC were compared and the associations with clinical characteristics were analyzed in these patients. Prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed and validated. Predictive systems were constructed and measured by the area under the AUC curve and concordance index (C-index). Results. A total of 302 PDAC patients were included in this study, including 247 patients with PDAC of head and another 55 patients with PDAC of body/tail. Patients who developed tumor recurrence within 24 months after resection had significantly shorter OS in both groups. Liver metastasis occupied most of the tumor progressions and diminished while local recurrence increased gradually over time. The variation trends were similar for patients in both groups while these changes were more pronounced for patients in the head group. Local recurrence and liver-only metastasis seemed to indicate a better OS. Furthermore, predictive systems for OS and PFS prediction based on independent risk factors were established and showed significant higher values of AUC and C-indexes compared with the TNM stage system. Conclusions. Different characteristics of progressions for PDAC of head and body/tail suggested biological heterogeneity. The exploration of these variations helps to provide personalized management of recurrence in PDAC.

Cyril Veve ◽  
Nicolas Chiabaut

Many shared mobility solutions have been developed over recent decades. In the case of mobile technological innovations, new solutions that are more flexible to user demands have emerged. These dynamic solutions allow users to be served by optimizing different aspects such as the detour to pick up a passenger or the waiting time for users. Such methods make it possible to satisfy requests quickly and to match as closely as possible user expectations. However, these approaches usually use fleets composed of numerous small-capacity vehicles to serve each user. By contrast, microtransit aims to serve a more massive demand than conventional shared mobility methods. Our study falls within this context. It aims to identify recurrent patterns of mobility and to verify the possibility of implementing microtransit lines to serve them. In other words, the proposed method identifies spatial and temporal areas where the implementation of a flexible transport line would meet a potential mobility demand. The recurrence of trips in these specific areas provides a guarantee of the reliability of the designed lines.

2021 ◽  
pp. 375-404
Thomas Stow Wilkins ◽  
Gabriele Abbondanza

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1051-1072
Fabian Kai-Dietrich Noering ◽  
Konstantin Jonas ◽  
Frank Klawonn

In technical systems the analysis of similar load situations is a promising technique to gain information about the system’s state, its health or wearing. Very often, load situations are challenging to be defined by hand. Hence, these situations need to be discovered as recurrent patterns within multivariate time series data of the system under consideration. Unsupervised algorithms for finding such recurrent patterns in multivariate time series must be able to cope with very large data sets because the system might be observed over a very long time. In our previous work we identified discretization-based approaches to be very interesting for variable length pattern discovery because of their low computing time due to the simplification (symbolization) of the time series. In this paper we propose additional preprocessing steps for symbolic representation of time series aiming for enhanced multivariate pattern discovery. Beyond that we show the performance (quality and computing time) of our algorithms in a synthetic test data set as well as in a real life example with 100 millions of time points. We also test our approach with increasing dimensionality of the time series.

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962110445
Jee Won Lee

This study explores the use of multiple reactive tokens ( duis) in responsive turns in Mandarin, particularly in the sequential and interactional environments that project them in daily interactions. Data analysis of over 100 unscripted conversations between two or three native speakers indicate that an increase in the number of duis co-occurring corresponds to a higher level of listenership, resulting in a hierarchy of displayed stances ranging from neutral to active to affiliative. I argue that almost no practice of multiple duis in conversation is guaranteed to work mechanistically and automatically, as it requires at least a two-party collaboration. Multiple duis as reactive tokens in interaction are systematic, conversationally strategic, and sequentially as well as socially organized. Furthermore, they are recurrent patterns at the discourse level that must be recognized as routine practices in conversation, as their format can help accomplish unique interactional tasks that exhibit strong coherence and utility at the interactional level.

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 384
Michele Caraglio ◽  
Fulvio Baldovin ◽  
Attilio L. Stella

A definition of time based on the assumption of scale invariance may enhance and simplify the analysis of historical series with cyclically recurrent patterns and seasonalities. By enforcing simple-scaling and stationarity of the distributions of returns, we identify a successful protocol of time definition in finance, functional from tens of minutes to a few days. Within this time definition, the significant reduction of cyclostationary effects allows analyzing the structure of the stochastic process underlying the series on the basis of statistical sampling sliding along the whole time series. At the same time, the duration of periods in which markets remain inactive is properly quantified by the novel clock, and the corresponding returns (e.g., overnight or weekend) can be consistently taken into account for financial applications. The method is applied to the S&P500 index recorded at a 1 min frequency between September 1985 and June 2013.

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