The behaviour of US investors during presidential elections

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Colón De Armas ◽  
Javier Rodriguez ◽  
Herminio Romero
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Trading Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Republican Candidate ◽  
Trading Behaviour

PurposeThis study examines the influence of the presidential elections on the behaviour of US investors according to the trading activity of two of the most popular investment vehicles: exchange-traded funds and close-ended funds.Design/methodology/approachBased on the fact that investors in these two investment vehicles differ by, at least, two demographic factors that influence investment decisions, age and labour status, inferences are made about the degree of interest and the amount of trading activity that presidential elections provoke.FindingsThe evidence demonstrates that, during the last four US presidential elections, exchange-traded funds' investors trade significantly more than close-ended funds' investors during several event windows centred on the day of an election in which a republican candidate is elected. Close-ended funds' investors are more active during the election of a democratic candidate, although the statistical evidence in that regard is weak. Thus, it appears reasonable to conclude that younger investors who are gainfully employed are induced to trade by a presidential election in which a republican candidate prevails. Apparently, a democratic victory does not provoke the same behaviour.Originality/valueAlthough the relation between politics and economics is not an unexplored topic, it is not clear whether the presidential elections themselves constitute an event that triggers the trading behaviour of investors.

Voting behavior in the South Korean presidential election – exploring the regional voting pattern

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 268-281
Author(s):  
Tae Wan Kim
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Constant Level ◽  
Local Identity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine regional voting patterns in South Korea using the results from six presidential elections since the 1990s. Design/methodology/approach A χ2 test was used to determine the municipalities where a regional voting pattern emerged, and λ correlation coefficients were calculated to examine changes in the regional voting patterns. Findings The analyses lead to three key findings. First, voting patterns differ in Yeongnam and Honam: regional voting in Yeongnam is getting weaker, it remains strong in Honam. Second, the tendency to vote along regional lines decreased significantly in the election in which the Honam party fielded a candidate with a Yeongnam appeared identity. Third, regional voting patterns declined but then stabilized at a constant level, regardless of the candidates’ local identity, which was confirmed in “Bu-Ul-Gyeong.” Originality/value This paper can empirically verify the manifestation of regional voting pattern and confirm the trend. It is possible to derive a condition for suppressing the regional voting pattern.

How “The Three Rules” guide strategy and investment decisions at Deloitte Consulting LLP

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Moffatt
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Case ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Thought Leadership

Purpose – This case example looks at how Deloitte Consulting applies the Three Rules synthesized by Michael Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed based on their large-scale research project that identified patterns in the way exceptional companies think. Design/methodology/approach – The Three Rules concept is a key piece of Deloitte Consulting’s thought leadership program. So how are the three rules helping the organization perform? Now that research has shown how exceptional companies think, CEO Jim Moffatt could address the question, “Does Deloitte think like an exceptional company?” Findings – Deloitte has had success with an approach that promotes a bias towards non-price value over price and revenue over costs. Practical implications – It’s critical that all decision makers in an organization understand how decisions that are consistent with the three rules have contributed to past success as well as how they can apply the rules to difficult challenges they face today. Originality/value – This is the first case study written from a CEO’s perspective that looks at how the Three Rules approach of Michael Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed can foster a firm’s growth and exceptional performance.

Large-cap vs small-cap portfolio performance: new empirical evidence from ETFs

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-94
Author(s):  
Gerasimos Rompotis
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
First Time ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeA well-documented pattern in the literature concerns the outperformance of small-cap stocks relative to their larger-cap counterparts. This paper aims to address the “small-cap versus large-cap” issue using for the first time data from the exchange traded funds (ETFs) industry.Design/methodology/approachSeveral raw return and risk-adjusted return metrics are estimated over the period 2012-2016.FindingsResults are partially supportive of the “size effect”. In particular, small-cap ETFs outperform large-cap ETFs in overall raw return terms even though they fail the risk test. However, outperformance is not consistent on an annual basis. When risk-adjusted returns are taken into consideration, small-cap ETFs are inferior to their large-cap counterparts.Research limitations/implicationsThis research only covers the ETF market in the USA. However, given the tremendous growth of ETF markets worldwide, a similar examination of the “small vs large capitalization” issue could be conducted with data from other developed ETF markets in Europe and Asia. In such a case, useful comparisons could be made, so that we could conclude whether the findings of the current study are unique and US-specific or whether they could be generalized across the several international ETF markets.Practical implicationsA possible generalization of the findings would entail that profitable investment strategies could be based on the different performance and risk characteristics of small- and large-cap ETFs.Originality/valueThis is the first study to examine the performance of ETFs investing in large-cap stock indicesvis-à-visthe performance of ETFs tracking indices comprised of small-cap stocks.

The effect of the imposition of a public reprimand on the stock price of companies in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emie Famieza Zainudin ◽  
Hafiza Aishah Hashim ◽  
Shahnaz Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
A Company

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of the imposition of public reprimands on the underlying stock prices of companies in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach Data on 148 companies that received public reprimands during the period from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the Bursa Malaysia website to analyse the market reactions to the imposition of public reprimands. Findings Based on a market model of abnormal returns, the empirical result showed that the imposition of a public reprimand had a negative impact on a company’s stock price. Moreover, when a market model of average abnormal returns (AAR) was used, the result indicated that companies that had received a public reprimand had a negative AAR value. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study have implications for shareholders in making their investment decisions because they can switch their investments to other companies and markets after a company in which they are interested or have made an investment has received a public reprimand. Originality/value There is limited research on the imposition of public reprimands and the effect that it has on companies in developing countries. Hence, this study contributes to research in this area by providing evidence on the effect of public reprimand on stock price reactions in the context of a developing country, namely, Malaysia.

FINRA relaxes restrictions on pre-inception performance data

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 6-9
Author(s):  
Richard F. Kerr ◽  
Matthew J. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Performance Data ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Investment Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Companies ◽  
Practical Guidance ◽  
Marketing Materials ◽  
Important Shift

Purpose To explain the significance of a recently issued interpretive letter in which FINRA staff agreed to permit the use of pre-inception index performance data by passively managed, registered open-end investment companies. Design/methodology/approach FINRA recently issued an interpretive letter extending previously issued guidance by permitting passively managed open-end registered investment companies including separately-managed series of a business trust to use pre-inception index performance data in Institutional Communications. Findings The 2019 Letter is an important shift in how FINRA staff views PIP data in Institutional Communications by acknowledging that passively managed open-end funds should be treated in a similar manner as passively managed exchange-traded funds. This shift will be a welcome development for FINRA member firms wishing to include PIP data in marketing materials for the passively managed open-end funds they distribute. Originality/value Practical guidance from experienced investment management and broker-dealer lawyers.

scholarly journals Electoral College bias and the 2020 presidential election

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (45) ◽  
pp. 27940-27944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Karl Sigman ◽  
Linan Yao
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Past ◽  
Electoral Vote ◽  
Republican Candidate

Donald Trump’s 2016 win despite failing to carry the popular vote has raised concern that 2020 would also see a mismatch between the winner of the popular vote and the winner of the Electoral College. This paper shows how to forecast the electoral vote in 2020 taking into account the unknown popular vote and the configuration of state voting in 2016. We note that 2016 was a statistical outlier. The potential Electoral College bias was slimmer in the past and not always favoring the Republican candidate. We show that in past presidential elections, difference among states in their presidential voting is solely a function of the states’ most recent presidential voting (plus new shocks); earlier history does not matter. Based on thousands of simulations, our research suggests that the bias in 2020 probably will favor Trump again but to a lesser degree than in 2016. The range of possible outcomes is sufficiently wide, however, to even include some possibility that Joseph Biden could win in the Electoral College while barely losing the popular vote.

E-commerce trading activity and the SME sector: an FSB perspective

2013 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 866-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Pickernell ◽  
Paul Jones ◽  
Gary Packham ◽  
Brychan Thomas ◽  
Gareth White ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
Ict Development ◽  
The University ◽  
Trading Behaviour

Purpose – This study aims to examine e-commerce within UK small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). More specifically, it seeks to explore associations between e-commerce and internal and external antecedents including trading behaviour, owner/manager characteristics, innovation, public sector involvement, business advice and finance sources. Design/methodology/approach – An 8,500+ sample derived from the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses survey was utilised. An OLS regression equation was generated where the percentage of sales made using e-commerce constituted the dependent variable. Independent variables were constructed for several sets of factors including innovation, business advice and sources of finance, as well as a range of owner and SME typology variables. Findings – The results suggest that e-commerce is more strongly apparent in SMEs started from scratch and where they were involved in basic or high knowledge services or the tourist trade. SMEs undertaking e-commerce were also associated with innovation in the form of copyright, as well as public procurement with local authorities and the university sector. Specific business advice in the form of capacity, family and suppliers was also associated with e-commerce trading. Research limitations/implications – These results have implications for SMEs and public sector stakeholders. SMEs must recognise the importance of several potential antecedents such as intellectual property rights, specific business advice and finance to encourage e-commerce. Moreover, it was apparent that certain SME characteristics, namely locality and trading behaviour, were associated with effective e-commerce. Originality/value – This study will be of value to academia, SMEs and key public sector stakeholders in the formulation of policy for ICT development.

Shared leadership in entrepreneurial teams: a qualitative study

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-441
Author(s):  
Shiji Lyndon ◽  
Ashish Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Shared Leadership ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Entrepreneurial Teams ◽  
Depth Interviews ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Answering Questions

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to unravel the underpinnings of the phenomenon of shared leadership. The study was carried out with the objective of answering questions such as what is shared in shared leadership, what are individual and team level factors which lead to sharing and what are the outcomes of shared leadership. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted a qualitative approach. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted. The data were analysed using Nvivo 11 software. Findings The study found that in entrepreneurial teams while sharing leadership, cofounders share competencies, roles, vision, stress and decision-making. The study also reveals various individual and team level factors which facilitate shared leadership and its outcomes. Practical implications The study offers critical insights regarding the characteristics of individuals and team where shared leadership would work and hence can be used to understand the factors to be considered while forming teams. The study also has important insights for the investors regarding what dynamics to look for in individuals and teams before making investment decisions. Originality/value The inductive approach adopted in the study helps in understanding some of the basic underpinnings of the phenomenon of shared leadership which were not adequately answered by previous studies.

OECD and EU cannot count on Biden backing digital tax

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Consensus ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Us Senate

Significance Signs that Democratic candidate Joe Biden is likely to secure a narrow victory in the US presidential election will boost the Commission’s hopes for global consensus and better transatlantic dialogue on digital taxes. Impacts Despite Brexit, the United Kingdom will support EU calls for a digital tax. The list of countries imposing unilateral digital taxes will continue to grow as pandemic-induced recession bites. The precise bipartisan balance of the US Senate will determine the extent of tech-related policy changes under Biden.

Evaluating the tracking performance and tracking error of New Zealand exchange traded funds

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Chen ◽  
Yi Chen ◽  
Bart Frijns
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Tracking Performance ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Frequency Tracking ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Daily Frequency

Purpose The aim of this study is to examine the tracking performance and tracking error (TE) of New Zealand exchange traded fsunds (ETFs). Design/methodology/approach The authors use regression methods and cointegration analysis to examine tracking performance. Multivariate regressions are used to examine the determinants of TE. Findings At the daily frequency, the authors observe that the ETFs have substantially different exposures to their underlying indexes from what they should be, which is confirmed by cointegration analysis. At the monthly frequency, tracking performance improves but still shows significant differences between the ETF and its underlying index. When the authors examine the TEs of the ETFs, the authors observe that these are substantial and that there is considerable variation in TE. Regression analysis shows that both characteristics of the ETF and the constituents of the index the ETF tracks, as well as the volatility of the underlying benchmark are determinants of the TE of the ETFs. Originality/value This is the first study to examine New Zealand-based ETFs. The findings contribute to understanding the performance of these ETFs and are of relevance to academics, investors and the ETF provider.

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