Risk dynamics modelling of reservoir dam break for safety control in the emergency response process
Abstract Dam break is an accident that may heavily threat downstream residents' life and property safety, especially in China. As revealed by accident investigation statistics, both flawed organizational behavior and inadequate downstream resident risk awareness affected the safety risk of reservoir dam. The multiple information transferring mode and dynamic processes perform with the characteristics of social-technical system. Based on the system dynamics approach, this study proposed a risk causation model aiming for factor interactions involving organizational, human, and technical system levels. The derived simulation model represented the historical risk evolution process of Gouhou reservoir in China and the rationality of the proposed model was verified. To further improve the efficiency of the organizational response and monitor real-time dam safety, a software tool called Dam Emergency Response Aids (DERA) was constructed to evaluate the potential safety benefits of risk control measures, and to overcome the defects of static emergency plans. By integrating relevant professional modules and data, the mobile application (APP) has been applied on the Jinniu Mountain reservoir dam in Nanjing of China and helped to maintain its excellent safety operation until now. It shows the risk dynamics model proposed can improve the abilities of dam operating management organization for more effective responses under emergency circumstances.