Dynamic Risk Factors and their Utilisation in Case Formulation: A New Conceptual Framework

<p>The social pressure on policy makers and clinicians working with sexual offenders to reduce recidivism is extreme. A result of this pressure is the amount of research investigating risk-related features that has surged over the last few decades. Risk assessment has progressed from unstructured clinical judgement to development of risk factors that correlate with recidivism to predict levels of risk, and more recently, to forensic case formulation. This thesis concentrates on two key issues with forensic case formulation that has been largely neglected thus far. First, forensic case formulations rely heavily on the use of dynamic risk factors as causes of offending. The concern is that dynamic risk factors are composite constructs not causal mechanisms. Second, forensic case formulation models do not explain how to use an offender’s information and their risk factors to hypothesise about the cause of their offending leading to issues of reliability. To address these issues, the RECFM consists of five phases that guides clinicians on how to appropriately use forensic case formulation. The Risk Etiology Case Formulation Model (RECFM) aims to incorporate a reconceptualised version of dynamic risk factors using an Agency Model to identify the interaction of agent and context that causes offending behaviour. By using the RECFM, treatment can be targeted to the individual and their specific causes of offending, which will lead to better results in reducing recidivism. The aim of this thesis is to provide a forensic case formulation model is comprehensible for clinicians and that targets the causes of offending.</p>

Dynamic Risk Factors and their Utilisation in Case Formulation: A New Conceptual Framework

<p>The social pressure on policy makers and clinicians working with sexual offenders to reduce recidivism is extreme. A result of this pressure is the amount of research investigating risk-related features that has surged over the last few decades. Risk assessment has progressed from unstructured clinical judgement to development of risk factors that correlate with recidivism to predict levels of risk, and more recently, to forensic case formulation. This thesis concentrates on two key issues with forensic case formulation that has been largely neglected thus far. First, forensic case formulations rely heavily on the use of dynamic risk factors as causes of offending. The concern is that dynamic risk factors are composite constructs not causal mechanisms. Second, forensic case formulation models do not explain how to use an offender’s information and their risk factors to hypothesise about the cause of their offending leading to issues of reliability. To address these issues, the RECFM consists of five phases that guides clinicians on how to appropriately use forensic case formulation. The Risk Etiology Case Formulation Model (RECFM) aims to incorporate a reconceptualised version of dynamic risk factors using an Agency Model to identify the interaction of agent and context that causes offending behaviour. By using the RECFM, treatment can be targeted to the individual and their specific causes of offending, which will lead to better results in reducing recidivism. The aim of this thesis is to provide a forensic case formulation model is comprehensible for clinicians and that targets the causes of offending.</p>

Recidivism Rates of Treated, Non-Treated and Dropout Adolescent Who Have Sexually Offended: a Non-Randomized Study

The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a cognitive-behavioral treatment in reducing recidivism by adolescents who have sexually offended (ASO). A secondary objective was to determine whether typologies based on victim age (child, adult/peer, mixed) and relationship (intrafamilial, extra familial, intra/extra familial) discriminate ASO in terms of response to treatment and recidivism. The sample comprised 327 adolescents 12–18 years old (M = 15.8 years, SD = 1.9) who were evaluated in an outpatient clinic after committing a contact sexual assault. Official data on recidivism (criminal charges) was collected after a follow-up period of 21–162 months (M = 7.8 years, SD = 32.2). Survival analysis indicated that adolescents who completed treatment (n = 62) had a recidivism rate for violence (including sexual violence) almost half that of adolescents who had either not completed the treatment or not received treatment (n = 261), (16.1 vs. 30.7%). Neither of the two typologies studied had any effect on the completion of treatment. However, sexual aggression against adults/peers was associated with an increased probability of violent re-offending. These results confirm the effectiveness of this cognitive-behavioral treatment —which targets risk factors associated with sexual aggression as well as those associated with violence in general—in ASO.

Freedom behind bars: the central role of emotions in naturalizing an analogy for social change

In this paper we examine how a socially innovative solution to a complex social problem is able to overcome entrenched disadvantage and division and sustain itself within an existing institution. We explore how a rugby team in a high-security prison in Argentina has become an organizational response that substantially transformed prisoners’ lives in and out of jail, allowing inmates to reclaim many critical aspects of their humanity and dramatically reducing recidivism. We examine rugby as an analogy for new models of behaviors and identities in the context of extreme disadvantage, and surface the specific emotional work required to make the analogy generative. The findings from our in-depth case study reveal three reinforcing mechanisms in the workings of an analogy - resonating, resignifying, and collective generativity - and in doing so provide a novel crescive model of how analogies may sustain change emotionally, cognitively and behaviorally over time, and ultimately achieve positive transformational effects in extreme social contexts.

Does the good lives model work? A systematic review of the recidivism evidence

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the efficacy of good lives model (GLM) interventions on the recidivism outcomes of convicted offenders. Design/methodology/approach The review adhered to preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis and Cochrane guidelines. Digital databases were searched and articles reporting outcomes of the GLM amongst convicted offenders and outcomes including recidivism data and pre-post measures of dynamic risk were included in a narrative synthesis. Findings Of 1,791 articles screened, only six studies met the criteria for review. Key findings were: in half the reviewed studies, GLM did not increase recidivism risk; in half the reviewed studies, only when the correct treatment dosage was applied that some evidence of risk reduction was found; there was limited support for GLM increasing or sustaining motivation for resistance from reoffending. Research for the review was limited and support for the GLM in reducing recidivism rates was not established. Practical implications In this 2021 review, the authors examined the efficacy of the GLM in reducing recidivism. This addresses a gap in the literature. The authors found that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the GLM can reduce recidivism. This has implications for practitioners who wish to deliver evidence-based practices in prison/community settings. There is currently not enough peer-reviewed evidence to unequivocally confirm the efficacy of the GLM. The authors recommended additional quality programme outcome research be carried out. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to assess quantitative and qualitative studies on the efficacy of the GLM and provides foundations for future research.

A Process Evaluation of San Francisco’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion Program

In 2016, San Francisco (SF) implemented the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) program, a harm reduction–based pre-booking diversion system for people who violate drug laws and/or are engaged in sex work. LEAD is set apart from existing diversion programs, as it uses police as point of entry. Prior LEAD studies indicate some success in reducing recidivism and improving life outcomes. However, less is known about program implementation, including barriers and facilitators. Relying on policy documents, interviews, and focus groups, this study describes the LEAD SF’s development, operations, adaptations, and challenges. It also identifies the unique context of LEAD SF that led to implementation barriers and facilitators. Results show that SF experienced success in collaboration, relationship building, and client connections to services but experienced challenges in securing and maintaining police officer buy-in and keeping clear and open lines of communication regarding LEAD goals, objectives, policies, and procedures. This led to the termination of LEAD SF in 2020.

A Rapid Evidence Assessment of the impact of probation caseloads on reducing recidivism and other probation outcomes

We undertook a Rapid Evidence Assessment to explore the existing empirical evidence relating to the impact of probation caseloads on recidivism. Over 3,000 potentially relevant papers were sifted from which five were deemed robust enough to be analysed in detail. All five were US studies which examined the impact of particular initiatives to reduce caseloads and were delivered by mainstream community-based probation officers. All recorded reductions in measured outcomes compared to comparators. Overall, although the number of robust studies remains quite small for such a key area of consideration, there appears to be a growing body of evidence that lower probation caseloads have a positive impact in terms of reducing reoffending in the USA. All five studies looked at a range of criminal justice outcomes including technical probation violations, violations for new arrests and reconvictions. Interestingly, although researchers were expecting to find a higher rate of probation violations among the cohorts supervised by probation officers with lower caseloads (due to the increased intensity of supervision), this did not turn out to be the case.

The 40-year debate: a meta-review on what works for juvenile offenders

Objectives This meta-review integrates the findings of meta-analyses and systematic reviews to explore the effect of intervention programs on recidivism for juvenile offenders. Methods The systematic literature search gathered 48 meta-analyses and systematic reviews from 53 research reports, contributing 56 independent effect sizes for analysis. These effect sizes were statistically integrated, and five moderators of theoretical and methodological importance were tested using meta-regression. Results On average, intervention programs are associated with a significant reduction in recidivism (rΦ = −0.09, p < 0.001) for juvenile offenders who participate in a program compared to those who do not. However, reductions in recidivism significantly vary between the levels of criminal justice system, characteristics of juvenile offenders, types of program modalities, and methodological quality. Conclusions Results indicate that intervention programs can be an effective approach to reducing recidivism for juvenile offenders, especially when combined with a rehabilitative program modality.

Reintegration of Ex-Offenders Convicted of Violent Crimes into the Community in the Iranian Context: A Qualitative Study

Community reintegration of ex-offenders is a main issue for reducing recidivism. This article aims to explain the process of reintegration into the community based on the experiences of people who have been convicted of violent crimes in Iran. A qualitative study based on grounded theory was conducted in 2020 in Tehran/Iran. Data was collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 26 participants. An institutional review board approved the study. Results indicate that the “worry trap” is the main challenge that those convicted of violent crimes face upon reentry into society. If these individuals are provided with governmental and non-governmental services and support, they can move toward “restoring their lost social capital.” The “redefinition of an independent identity” is a consequence of released individuals’ struggle to restore their lost social capital. Further research exploring the causality of social capital and improved outcomes after release from prison and reentry to community is needed.