Exploring the Built Environment Factors in the Metro That Influence the Ridership and the Market Share of the Elderly and Students

The metro has developed rapidly in the past two decades and has become one of the crucial patterns of transportation for urban residents in China. Many studies have explored the factors affecting metro ridership, but few have focused on the metro usage of specific groups, such as the elderly and students. This paper uses the negative binomial regression model to explore the relationship between the built environment and the metro ridership of three types of people (adults, the elderly, and students) by using the metro smart card data of Qingdao. We also used the fractional response model to discuss the factors that influence the ridership share for the elderly and students. The results show that most variables promote the metro usage of the three groups of people but have a significantly different effect on the market share of those groups. Specifically, the number of schools, hospitals, supermarkets, squares, parks, and scenic spots near metro stations significantly increases the proportion of the elderly metro usage. The number of bus stops and schools substantially increases the share of metro ridership by students. The research results can provide valuable insights for promoting the metro’s overall ridership and minimizing the gap in allocating public transport resources among different groups.

Wisdom of the Experts versus Wisdom of the Crowd in Hospital Quality Ratings: Cross-Sectional Analyses of Google Ratings (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Popular online portals provide free and convenient access to user-generated quality reviews. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) also provide patients with Hospital Compare Star Ratings (HCSR), a single public measure of hospital quality aggregating multiple quality dimensions. Consumers often use crowdsourced hospital ratings on platforms such as Google to select hospitals, but it is unknown if these ratings reflect a comprehensive measure of clinical quality. OBJECTIVE We analyze if Google online quality ratings, which reflect the wisdom of the crowd, are associated with HCSR, which reflect the wisdom of the experts. CMS revised the methodology of assigning star ratings to hospitals. Therefore, we analyze these associations before and after the 2021 revisions of the CMS rating system. METHODS We extracted Google ratings using Application Programming Interface (API) in June 2020. The HCSR data of April 2020 (before the revision of HCSR methodology) and April 2021 (after the revision of HCSR methodology) were obtained from CMS’ Hospital Compare (HC) website. We also extracted scores for the individual components of hospital quality for each of the hospitals in our sample using the code provided by HC. Fractional Response Model (FRM) was used to estimate the association between Google Ratings and HCSR and individual components of quality. RESULTS Results indicate that Google ratings are statistically associated with HCSR (P<.001) after controlling for hospital level effects. A one star improvement in CMS ratings before the change in methodology (after the change in methodology) is expected to increase the Google ratings by 0.145 (0.135) on average (95% CI 0.127- 0.163; P<.001, 95% CI 0.116-0.153; P<.001). The analyses with individual components of hospital quality reveal that Google ratings are not associated with components of HCSR that require medical expertise such as ‘Safety of care’ or ‘Readmissions’. The revised CMS rating system ameliorates previous partial inconsistencies in association between Google ratings and component scores of HCSR. CONCLUSIONS Overall, crowd sourced Google hospital ratings are informative about expert CMS hospital quality ratings and several individual quality components that are easier for patients to evaluate. Therefore, hospitals should not expect improvements in quality metrics that require expertise to assess such as safety of care and readmission to result in improved Google star ratings. Hospitals can benefit from using crowd-sourced ratings as timely, easily available, and dynamic indicators of their quality performance.

Fractional response analysis reveals logarithmic cytokine responses in cellular populations

Although we can now measure single-cell signaling responses with multivariate, high-throughput techniques our ability to interpret such measurements is still limited. Even interpretation of dose–response based on single-cell data is not straightforward: signaling responses can differ significantly between cells, encompass multiple signaling effectors, and have dynamic character. Here, we use probabilistic modeling and information-theory to introduce fractional response analysis (FRA), which quantifies changes in fractions of cells with given response levels. FRA can be universally performed for heterogeneous, multivariate, and dynamic measurements and, as we demonstrate, quantifies otherwise hidden patterns in single-cell data. In particular, we show that fractional responses to type I interferon in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells are very similar across different cell types, despite significant differences in mean or median responses and degrees of cell-to-cell heterogeneity. Further, we demonstrate that fractional responses to cytokines scale linearly with the log of the cytokine dose, which uncovers that heterogeneous cellular populations are sensitive to fold-changes in the dose, as opposed to additive changes.

Fractional response analysis reveals logarithmic cytokine responses in cellular populations

ABSTRACTAlthough we can now measure single-cell signaling responses with multivariate, high-throughput techniques our ability to interpret such measurements is still limited. Even interpretation of dose-response based on single-cell data is not straightforward: signaling responses can differ significantly between cells, encompass multiple signaling effectors, and have dynamic character. Here, we use probabilistic modeling and information-theory to introduce fractional response analysis (FRA), which quantifies changes in fractions of cells with given response levels. FRA can be universally performed for heterogeneous, multivariate, and dynamic measurements and, as we demonstrate, uncovers otherwise hidden patterns in single-cell data. In particular, we show that fractional responses to type I interferon in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells are very similar across different cell types, despite significant differences in mean or median responses and degrees of cell-to-cell heterogeneity. Further, we demonstrate that fractional responses to cytokines scale linearly with the log of the cytokine dose, which uncovers that cellular populations are sensitive to fold-changes in the dose, as opposed to additive changes.

Why Is Per Capita Consumption Underestimated in Alcohol Surveys? Results from 39 Surveys in 23 European Countries

Aims The aims of the article are (a) to estimate coverage rates (i.e. the proportion of ‘real consumption’ accounted for by a survey compared with more reliable aggregate consumption data) of the total, the recorded and the beverage-specific annual per capita consumption in 23 European countries, and (b) to investigate differences between regions, and other factors which might be associated with low coverage (prevalence of heavy episodic drinking [HED], survey methodology). Methods Survey data were derived from the Standardised European Alcohol Survey and Harmonising Alcohol-related Measures in European Surveys (number of surveys: 39, years of survey: 2008–2015, adults aged 20–64 years). Coverage rates were calculated at the aggregated level by dividing consumption estimates derived from the surveys by alcohol per capita estimates from a recent global modelling study. Fractional response regression models were used to examine the relative importance of the predictors. Results Large variation in coverage across European countries was observed (average total coverage: 36.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] [33.2; 39.8]), with lowest coverage found for spirits consumption (26.3, 95% CI [21.4; 31.3]). Regarding the second aim, the prevalence of HED was associated with wine- and spirits-specific coverage, explaining 10% in the respective variance. However, neither the consideration of regions nor survey methodology explained much of the variance in coverage estimates, regardless of the scenario. Conclusion The results reiterate that alcohol survey data should not be used to compare or estimate aggregate consumption levels, which may be better reflected by statistics on recorded or total per capita consumption.

FIRMS’ EXPORT PERFORMANCE: A FRACTIONAL ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

Export activities have become crucial to firms’ competitiveness, with determinants of export performance being a challenging field of research, since there is no consensus regarding the explained and explanatory variables or on the econometric methods to be used. Using a panel data of Portuguese wine firms, this paper aims to contribute to this debate, combining both resource- and institutional-based views of the firm. This paper tries to overcome the methodological hurdle, addressing sample selection issues and considering the fractional response nature of export performance. Given the pros and cons of each econometric approach, the Heckman selection model, the fractional probit model and the two-part fractional response model are estimated, and the results compared. From a public policy perspective, the results show that policies that promote wine firm size, labor productivity and wine promotion in third countries have a positive impact on export performance at firm-level. Age does not appear as a key factor on the internationalization of Portuguese wine firms

Longitudinal assessment of utilities in patients with migraine: an analysis of erenumab randomized controlled trials

Background Cost-effectiveness analyses in patients with migraine require estimates of patients’ utility values and how these relate to monthly migraine days (MMDs). This analysis examined four different modelling approaches to assess utility values as a function of MMDs. Methods Disease-specific patient-reported outcomes from three erenumab clinical studies (two in episodic migraine [NCT02456740 and NCT02483585] and one in chronic migraine [NCT02066415]) were mapped to the 5-dimension EuroQol questionnaire (EQ-5D) as a function of the Migraine-Specific Quality of Life Questionnaire (MSQ) and the Headache Impact Test (HIT-6™) using published algorithms. The mapped utility values were used to estimate generic, preference-based utility values suitable for use in economic models. Four models were assessed to explain utility values as a function of MMDs: a linear mixed effects model with restricted maximum likelihood (REML), a fractional response model with logit link, a fractional response model with probit link and a beta regression model. Results All models tested showed very similar fittings. Root mean squared errors were similar in the four models assessed (0.115, 0.114, 0.114 and 0.114, for the linear mixed effect model with REML, fractional response model with logit link, fractional response model with probit link and beta regression model respectively), when mapped from MSQ. Mean absolute errors for the four models tested were also similar when mapped from MSQ (0.085, 0.086, 0.085 and 0.085) and HIT-6 and (0.087, 0.088, 0.088 and 0.089) for the linear mixed effect model with REML, fractional response model with logit link, fractional response model with probit link and beta regression model, respectively. Conclusions This analysis describes the assessment of longitudinal approaches in modelling utility values and the four models proposed fitted the observed data well. Mapped utility values for patients treated with erenumab were generally higher than those for individuals treated with placebo with equivalent number of MMDs. Linking patient utility values to MMDs allows utility estimates for different levels of MMD to be predicted, for use in economic evaluations of preventive therapies. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov numbers of the trials used in this study: STRIVE, NCT02456740 (registered May 14, 2015), ARISE, NCT02483585 (registered June 12, 2015) and NCT02066415 (registered Feb 17, 2014).