Former Teachers: Exits and Re-Entries

Despite the large literature on teacher labor market in the United States, only few studies have examined the career choices of former teachers and the factors that affect their decisions to return to the profession. This is surprising given that former teachers represent over a third of teachers entering the teaching workforce, according to some estimates. This paper examines the exit and re-entry decisions of former teachers using a restricted-use data from the Beginning Teacher Longitudinal Study (BTLS). We use a discrete time hazard model that estimates the probability that a former teacher returns to teaching in a given year conditional on not having returned in the previous year. Results suggest that female teachers are more likely to return to the teaching profession by somewhere between 10 and 12 percentage points. We also find that teachers who are highly paid are more likely to re-enter teaching.

Revisiting Complementarity between Japanese FDI and the Import of Intermediate Goods: Agglomeration Effects and Parent-firm Heterogeneity

This study revisits the nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade in the dynamic perspective, focusing on intermediate goods imports of affiliates of Japanese firms operating in China. To examine the effect of the formation of the agglomeration and the recent FDI made by small firms, both of which have been overlooked in the literature, we construct a unique parent-affiliate matched panel data set of trade in intermediate goods, and estimate a discrete-time hazard model over the 2000–06 period. We found that affiliates owned by firms in agglomerated regions in Japan have a shorter duration of trade in intermediate goods compared with affiliates owned by smaller Japanese firms.

Association between tobacco prices and smoking onset: evidence from the TCP India Survey

BackgroundTobacco use is prevalent among youth and adults in India. However, direct evidence on how increasing taxes or prices affect tobacco use onset is scarce.ObjectiveTo analyse the associations between cigarette and bidi prices and smoking onset in India, and how these associations differ by socioeconomic status.MethodologyThe Wave 1 of the Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation India Survey by the International Tobacco Control Project contains information on the age at smoking onset for cigarettes and bidis. Using this information, data were expanded to a yearly pseudo-panel dataset that tracked respondents at risk of smoking onset from 1998 to 2011. The associations between bidi prices and bidi smoking onset, between cigarette prices and cigarette smoking onset, and between bidi and cigarette prices and any smoking onset were examined using a discrete-time hazard model with a logit link function. Stratified analyses were conducted to examine the difference in these associations by rural versus urban division.ResultsWe found that higher bidi prices were significantly associated with a lowered hazard of bidi smoking onset (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.51). Higher cigarette prices were significantly (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92) associated with a lowered hazard of cigarette smoking onset among urban residents, but this association was non-significant when SEs were clustered at the state level. In addition, the association between increasing bidis prices and lowered hazards of bidi smoking onset was greater for urban residents than for rural ones (p<0.01).ConclusionsUnder the new regime of a central goods and service system, policymakers may need to raise the prices of tobacco products sufficiently to curb smoking onset.

Social networks and unemployment exit in Great Britain

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect employed friends have on the probability of exiting unemployment of an unemployed worker according to his/her educational (skill) level. Design/methodology/approach In common with studies on unemployment duration, this paper uses a discrete-time hazard model. Findings The paper finds that the conditional probability of finding work is between 24 and 34 per cent higher per period for each additional employed friend for job seekers with intermediate skills. Social implications These results are of interest since they suggest that the reach of national employment agencies could extend beyond individuals in direct contact with first-line employment support bureaus. Originality/value Because of the lack of appropriate longitudinal information, the majority of empirical studies in the area assess the influence of social networks on employment status using proxy measures of social interactions. The current study contributes to the very limited empirical literature of the influence of social networks on job attainment using direct measures of social structures.

Predicting Time to Reclassification for English Learners: A Joint Modeling Approach

The development of academic English proficiency and the time it takes to reclassify to fluent English proficient status are key issues in English learner (EL) policy. This article develops a shared random effects model (SREM) to estimate English proficiency development and time to reclassification simultaneously, treating student-specific random effects as latent covariates in the time to reclassification model. Using data from a large Arizona school district, the SREM resulted in predictions of time to reclassification that were 93% accurate compared to 85% accuracy from a conventional discrete-time hazard model used in prior literature. The findings suggest that information about English-language development is critical for accurately predicting the grade an EL will reclassify.

Examining the Career Pathways of Educators With Superintendent Certification

Purpose: We used gatekeeping theory to frame our examination of whether and when educators with superintendent certification become superintendents, and how their likelihood of making that transition is influenced by race, sex, and other characteristics. Furthermore, we sought to identify variation in career pathways to the superintendency. Data and Method: We analyzed 26,071 observations of 4,813 unique individuals, representing the entire population of Texas public school educators who obtained their first superintendent certificate between the 2000-2001 and 2014-2015 school years. We constructed alluvial diagrams to visualize these educators’ career pathways. In addition to compiling a life table and visual displays of hazard, we used a discrete-time hazard model to control for individual and contextual characteristics associated with transitions into the superintendency. Findings: Educators are most likely to enter the superintendency in the academic year immediately following that in which they obtained the requisite certification. Furthermore, pathways to the superintendency differ greatly based on educator sex and race, as well as the level and locale employment setting. Finally, we determined that age, experience, education, level of employment, and sex all have statistically significant impacts on the likelihood of becoming a superintendent. Implications for Research and Practice: We discuss the role that researchers must play in coordinating with practitioners to ensure more equitable opportunity for aspiring superintendents. We also emphasize the important role that preparation programs play in preparing candidates for the job market. Finally, we ponder further expansions of similar presuperintendency research, as well as more robust applications of alluvial diagrams.

Early claiming of higher-earning husbands, the survivor benefit, and the incidence of poverty among recent widows

Social Security provides survivor benefits to lower-earning spouses of deceased workers entitled to a retirement benefit. The value of the survivor benefit depends on a number of factors including the deceased worker's claim age. We use the Health and Retirement Study and a discrete time hazard model to analyze how the claim age of married men influences the likelihood that their spouse will enter poverty in widowhood. We find that delayed claiming is associated with reduction in a widow's poverty risk. The magnitude of this relationship varies significantly with the claim age, Social Security dependence, and survivor benefit dependence.