“License Plate Lottery”: Why Are People So Keen to Participate in It?

Vehicle purchase restriction policies greatly influence people’s behavior, especially their participation in the license plate lottery. This paper focuses on the socioeconomic characteristics and psychological factors of citizens participating in the license plate lottery, which can serve as a reference for policy makers aiming to guide rational participation in the lottery. A Multi-Index and Multi-Causal model were established based on social psychology, combined with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Perceived car necessity, perceived behavioral control, car ownership attitude and subjective norms were regarded as four latent psychological variables. Furthermore, the behaviors of license plate lottery participants in cities with purchase restriction policies were statistically analyzed from the perspectives of personal socioeconomic characteristics and psychological factors. The empirical research results reveal that the socioeconomic attributes of citizens have different degrees of influence on latent variables. Perceived car necessity is observed to have a significant direct impact on a citizen’s behavioral intention to participate in the lottery, which is also affected by perceived behavioral control. Car ownership attitude has the strongest impact on citizen behavior towards participating in the license plate lottery, followed by subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and perceived car necessity. More specifically, the economic benefit associated with perceived behavioral control is identified as the critical factor in further promoting participation in the license plate lottery.

Research on New Energy Vehicle Market Penetration Rate Based on Nested Multinominal Logit Model

This article uses the NMNL (nested multinominal logit) model to analyze the impact of different policies on the cost of owning a vehicle by a consumer and discusses the changes in the share of various fuel-driven types of passenger vehicles that may be brought by different policy portfolios. This article also considers the differences in the development of various technical routes, conducts the nested classification calculation of different models, divides the differences in product preferences and obtains the market share results that are more in line with the market development status, providing a basis for the formulation of policies related to new energy vehicles. The study found that the popularization of NEVs requires more cost-reducing measures. As policies that consumers can perceive, consumers are more sensitive to fiscal and taxation policies than other types of policies. Based on the calculation of policy effects, this article recommends a policy plan to gradually impose vehicle purchase tax on NEVs after 2024, increase the fuel tax rate in stages after 2025, and impose an excise tax on BEVs and FCEVs after 2030. The plan can guarantee the stability of support for NEVs and the gradual reduction of financial investment.

Models of Delivery of Sustainable Public Transportation Services in Metropolitan Areas–Comparison of Conventional, Battery Powered and Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Drives

The development of public transport systems is related to the implementation of modern and low-carbon vehicles. Over the last several years, there has been a clear progress in this field. The number of electric buses has increased, and the first solutions in the area of hydrogen fuel cells have been implemented. Unfortunately, the implementation of these technologies is connected with significant financial expenditure. The goal of the article is the analysis of effectiveness of financial investment, consisting in the purchase of 30 new public transport buses (together with the necessary infrastructure–charging stations). The analysis has been performed using the NPV method for the period of 10 years. Discount rate was determined on 4%, as recommended by the European Commission for this type of project. It is based on the case study of the investment project carried out by Metropolis GZM in Poland. The article determines and compares the efficiency ratios for three investment options-purchase of diesel-powered, battery-powered, and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles. The results of the analysis indicate that the currently high costs of vehicle purchase and charging infrastructure are a significant barrier for the implementation of battery-powered and hydrogen fuel-cell buses. In order to meet the transport policy goals related to the exchange of traditional bus stock to more eco-friendly vehicles, it is necessary to involve public funds for the purpose of financing the investment activities.

Subsidizing Fuel-Efficient Cars: Evidence from China’s Automobile Industry

This paper examines the response of vehicle purchase behavior to China’s largest national subsidy program for fuel-efficient vehicles during 2010 and 2011. Using variation from the program’s eligibility cutoffs and the rollout of the subsidy program, the program is found to boost sales for subsidized vehicle models, but also to create a substitution effect within highly fuel-efficient vehicles. Estimates imply that ignoring the substitution effect would lead one to conclude that the program is welfare enhancing, whereas in fact the marginal cost of the program exceeds the marginal benefit by as much as 300 percent. (JEL D12, H25, L25, L62, O14, P23, P36)

Determining the Factors That Influence Electric Vehicle Adoption: A Stated Preference Survey Study in Beijing, China

The transition from conventional vehicles (CVs) to electric vehicles (EVs) could be promising in tackling environmental challenges in China. Using a sample of 1216 respondents in Beijing, China, our study intends to understand the underlying factors that drive the decision to purchase an EV among potential Chinese vehicle purchasers. We built two choice models to estimate vehicle purchase behavior and fuel choice. We found that males and having higher household income are associated with greater intention to purchase EVs (both plug-in and battery electric vehicles). However, a previous inclination to choose CV negatively impacted willingness to buy EVs. Between specific EV types, we found that Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) purchase was negatively associated with plans to obtain a driver’s license within three years and longer durations of having owned a motorized vehicle first. Yet, the number of electric bicycles in the household was positively associated with PHEV-purchase likelihood. For Battery EVs (BEV), we found that respondents who had previous experience with an EV (either as a driver or passenger) were more likely to purchase a BEV while existing ownership of a driver’s license and a higher purchase budget reduced such possibility. Based on our findings, we recommend authorities continue to, or increasingly, provide direct monetary incentives to purchase EVs, and to provide EV driving and riding experience to customers, especially who are in the middle- and low-income vehicle purchasing groups, to improve the Chinese EV market relative to CVs.

Exploring the relationships between Islam, some personal values, environmental concern, and electric vehicle purchase intention: the case of Saudi Arabia

Purpose Today, the global market for “clean” vehicles is generating double-digit growth annually. However, in most emerging or Islamic countries, sales of such cars remain at a very low level and green consumption patterns are poorly explored. This paper aims to expand the understanding of factors influencing attitudes and behaviors toward electric vehicle in an emerging Islamic country, namely, Saudi Arabia. It investigates whether the willingness of Saudis to purchase electric vehicles depends on religious and ethical considerations. The effects of environmental concern, Islamic and some personal values (self-transcendence and conservation) on green vehicle purchase intention were considered. Design/methodology/approach The literature review is predominantly of studies on emerging or Islamic countries. A convenience sampling method was used, and a total of 354 valid questionnaires were collected. An exploratory factor analysis under the principal component analysis was used to reveal the factor structure underlying the items in the questionnaire. A confirmatory factor analysis on Lisrel helped to assess the validity of the measurement models. The causal relationships of the research framework were measured using simultaneous equation modeling. Findings The results suggest that Islamic Values (IsV) and Conservation (Cv) values do not influence environmental concern (EC) or Electric Vehicle Purchase Intention (EVPI). On the contrary, self-transcendence values (ST) exerted a significant influence on EVPI and the mediation of EC in this relationship was supported. Research limitations/implications The theoretical framework provides a better understanding of how customers evaluate electric vehicles and the factors underlying their attitudes and behaviors toward such products in an Islamic and emerging market. The results suggest that consumers’ intentions to purchase electric vehicles are not driven by Islam or conservation values (conformity, tradition and security). Nevertheless, subjects for whom self-transcendence is an important value that guides their lives showed a higher willingness to purchase electric vehicles. This research also confirmed that EC is predictive of EVPI. Practical implications Marketers should focus on values of self-transcendence, which are benevolence and universalism, to influence electric vehicle purchase intention in Saudi Arabia. Neither Islamic nor conservation values are useful in this regard. However, managers and authorities are advised to establish a link between Islam and environmental awareness and behavior. Marketing communication and religious preachers should point out the commandments of Islam which stand for the preservation of nature. The authors concluded that much more should be done on the part of scholars to obtain a satisfactory understanding of green behavior in the Islamic world. Although green vehicles are rarely used there, these markets hold great sales potential for such products. Originality/value Little is known about consumer attitudes and behavior toward green products in Islamic countries. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first study to investigate whether Islamic and some personal values are related to environmental concern and electric vehicle purchase intention. The results showed that EC and EVPI depend on ST. The causal model indices for IsV and Cv were not significant.

The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Economics of Banning Gasoline Vehicles

Electric vehicles have a unique potential to transform personal transportation. We analyze this transition with a dynamic model capturing falling costs of electric vehicles, decreasing pollution from electricity, and increasing vehicle substitutability. Our calibration to the US market shows a transition from gasoline vehicles is not optimal at current substitutability: a gasoline vehicle production ban would have large deadweight loss. At higher substitutability, a ban can reduce deadweight loss from vehicle mix and adoption timing inefficiencies. A cumulative gasoline vehicle production quota has smaller deadweight loss, and an electric vehicle purchase subsidy is more robust to regulator misperceptions about substitutability. (JEL H23, L51, L62, L94, Q53)