Evaluating the eastward propagation of the MJO in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models based on a variety of diagnostics

Given the climatic importance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), this study evaluates the capability of CMIP6 models in simulating MJO eastward propagation in comparison with their CMIP5 counterparts. To understand the representation of MJO simulation in models, a set of diagnostics in respect of MJO-associated dynamic and thermodynamic structures are applied, including large-scale zonal circulation, vertical structures of diabatic heating and equivalent potential temperature, moisture convergence at planetary boundary layer (PBL), and the east-west asymmetry of moisture tendency relative to the MJO convection. The simulated propagation of the MJO in CMIP6 models shows an overall improvement on realistic speed and longer distance, which displays robust linear regression relationship against above-mentioned dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The improved MJO propagation in CMIP6 largely benefits from better representation of pre-moistening processes that is primarily contributed by improved PBL moisture convergence. In addition, the convergence of moisture and meridional advection of moisture prior to the MJO convection are enhanced in CMIP6, while the zonal advection of moisture is as weak as that in CMIP5. The increased convergence of moisture is a result of enhanced lower-tropospheric moisture and divergence, and the enhanced meridional advection of moisture can be caused by sharpened meridional gradient of mean low-tropospheric moisture in the western Pacific. Further examinations on lower-tropospheric moisture budget reveals that the enhanced zonal asymmetry of the moisture tendency in CMIP6 is driven by the drying process to the west of the MJO convection, which is accredited to the negative vertical and zonal advections of moisture.

A Novel Step–Doped Channel AlGaN/GaN HEMTs with Improved Breakdown Performance

The AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistor with a step–doped channel (SDC–HEMT) is first proposed in this paper. The potential distribution and the electric field (E–field) distribution of the device are explored by the numerical approach and analytical approach simultaneously. By introducing extra dopants to the channel layer, the E–field distribution along the AlGaN/GaN heterojunction interface is reshaped, resulting in an improved breakdown characteristic. An optimized doping concentration gradient of channel layer of 2 × 1016 cm−3/step is proposed and verified by simulations. The breakdown voltage (BV) of the optimized SDC–HEMT reaches 1486 V with a 59.8% improvement compared with conventional AlGaN/GaN HEMT. In addition, the average E–field in the region between gate and drain improves from 1.5 to 2.5 MV/cm. Based on the equivalent potential method (EPM), an analytical model of the E–field and potential distribution is presented. The veracity and effectiveness of the proposed methodology is verified by the good agreement between the simulated and modeled results.

A Comparison between Moist and Dry Tropical Cyclones: The Low Effectiveness of Surface Sensible Heat Flux in Storm Intensification

Recent numerical modeling studies demonstrate that dry tropical cyclones can be stably sustained via supply of surface sensible heat flux. This raises questions of whether surface sensible heat flux (SHX) and latent heat flux (LHX) have the same effect on the intensity evolution of tropical cyclones. An estimation of equivalent potential temperature budget in the boundary layer shows that LHX leads to larger increase in equivalent potential temperature than SHX even when they possess the same magnitude. By formulating these two kinds of surface heat fluxes with the same mathematical framework, the simulated intensifications of moist and dry tropical cyclones are compared, with the former driven exclusively by LHX and the latter by SHX. Results show significantly larger intensification rates for the tropical cyclone driven by LHX than that by SHX, revealing low effectiveness of SHX in the intensification of tropical cyclones. The diabatic heating in the moist tropical cyclone occurs accompanying the convection, while it is merely pronounced near the surface in the dry tropical cyclone and is decoupled from the dry convection. A new surface pressure tendency equation is proposed, without incorporating implicit pressure tendency term on the right-hand side. The budget analysis indicates that the SHX is less effective than LHX in lowering surface central pressure and therefore in tropical cyclone intensification. A series of sensitivity experiments suggest that the threshold of energy input required for spinning up a tropical cyclone is lower in the form of LHX than that of SHX.

Analysis of Possible Physical Factors That Accelerate Downdrafts in Storm Clouds over Cuba

One of the manifestations of severe local storms is strong linear winds, which are known as a downburst and which are capable of causing great losses to the country’s economy and society. Knowing which factors in the atmosphere are necessary for the occurrence of this phenomenon is essential for its better understanding and prediction. The objective of this study was to analyze the possible physical factors that accelerate downdrafts in the storm clouds in Cuba. To do so, 10 study cases simulated with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model at 3 km of the spatial resolution were used. The factors capable of discriminating between downbursts and thunderstorms without severity were obtained. These were the absorption of latent heat by evaporation and fusion, the equivalent potential temperature difference between the level of maximum relative humidity in the low levels and of minimum relative humidity in the middle levels, the speed of the downdraft, and the downdraft available convective potential energy (DCAPE). Unlike previous research, they discriminated against updraft buoyancy and energy advection, both at the middle levels of the troposphere.

The Relative Contributions of Temperature and Moisture to Heat Stress Changes under Warming

Increases in the severity of heat stress extremes are potentially one of the most impactful consequences of climate change, affecting human comfort, productivity, health, and mortality in many places on Earth. Heat stress results from a combination of elevated temperature and humidity, but the relative contributions of each of these to heat stress changes have yet to be quantified. Here, conditions for the baseline specific humidity are derived for when specific humidity or temperature dominates heat stress changes, as measured using the equivalent potential temperature (θE). Separate conditions are derived over ocean and over land, in addition to a condition for when relative humidity changes make a larger contribution than the Clausius–Clapeyron response at fixed relative humidity. These conditions are used to interpret the θE responses in transient warming simulations with an ensemble of models participating in phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The regional pattern of θE changes is shown to be largely determined by the pattern of specific humidity changes, with the pattern of temperature changes playing a secondary role. This holds whether considering changes in seasonal-mean θE or in extreme (98th-percentile) θE events, and uncertainty in the response of specific humidity to warming is shown to be the leading source of uncertainty in the θE response at most land locations. Finally, analysis of ERA5 data demonstrates that the pattern of observed θE changes is also well explained by the pattern of specific humidity changes. These results demonstrate that understanding regional changes in specific humidity is largely sufficient for understanding regional changes in heat stress.

A mass-weighted isentropic coordinate for mapping chemical tracers and computing atmospheric inventories

We introduce a transformed isentropic coordinate Mθe, defined as the dry air mass under a given equivalent potential temperature surface (θe) within a hemisphere. Like θe, the coordinate Mθe follows the synoptic distortions of the atmosphere but, unlike θe, has a nearly fixed relationship with latitude and altitude over the seasonal cycle. Calculation of Mθe is straightforward from meteorological fields. Using observations from the recent HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) airborne campaigns, we map the CO2 seasonal cycle as a function of pressure and Mθe, where Mθe is thereby effectively used as an alternative to latitude. We show that the CO2 seasonal cycles are more constant as a function of pressure using Mθe as the horizontal coordinate compared to latitude. Furthermore, short-term variability in CO2 relative to the mean seasonal cycle is also smaller when the data are organized by Mθe and pressure than when organized by latitude and pressure. We also present a method using Mθe to compute mass-weighted averages of CO2 on a hemispheric scale. Using this method with the same airborne data and applying corrections for limited coverage, we resolve the average CO2 seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere (mass-weighted tropospheric climatological average for 2009–2018), yielding an amplitude of 7.8 ± 0.14 ppm and a downward zero-crossing on Julian day 173 ± 6.1 (i.e., late June). Mθe may be similarly useful for mapping the distribution and computing inventories of any long-lived chemical tracer.

Combined Effects of Midlevel Dry Air and Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Development. Part II: Radial Ventilation

This study demonstrates how midlevel dry air and vertical wind shear (VWS) can modulate tropical cyclone (TC) development via radial ventilation. A suite of experiments was conducted with different combinations of initial midlevel moisture and VWS environments. Two radial ventilation structures are documented. The first structure is positioned in a similar region as rainband activity and downdraft ventilation (documented in Part I) between heights of 0 and 3 km. Parcels associated with this first structure transport low-equivalent potential temperature air inward and downward left-of-shear and upshear to suppress convection. The second structure is associated with the vertical tilt of the vortex and storm-relative flow between heights of 5 and 9 km. Parcels associated with this second structure transport low-relative humidity air inward upshear and right-of-shear to suppress convection. Altogether, the modulating effects of radial ventilation on TC development are the inward transport of low-equivalent potential temperature air, as well as low-level radial outflow upshear, which aid in reducing the areal extent of strong upward motions, thereby reducing the vertical mass flux in the inner core, and stunting TC development.

Combined Effects of Midlevel Dry Air and Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Development. Part I: Downdraft Ventilation

This study examines how midlevel dry air and vertical wind shear (VWS) can modulate tropical cyclone (TC) development via downdraft ventilation. A suite of experiments was conducted with different combinations of initial midlevel moisture and VWS. A strong, positive, linear relationship exists between the low-level vertical mass flux in the inner core and TC intensity. The linear increase in vertical mass flux with intensity is not due to an increased strength of upward motions but, instead, is due to an increased areal extent of strong upward motions (w > 0:5 m s−1). This relationship suggests physical processes that could influence the vertical mass flux, such as downdraft ventilation, influence the intensity of a TC.The azimuthal asymmetry and strength of downdraft ventilation is associated with the vertical tilt of the vortex: downdraft ventilation is located cyclonically downstream from the vertical tilt direction and its strength is associated with the magnitude of the vertical tilt. Importantly, equivalent potential temperature of parcels associated with downdraft ventilation trajectories quickly recovers via surface fluxes in the subcloud layer, but the areal extent of strong upward motions is reduced. Altogether, the modulating effects of downdraft ventilation on TC development are the downward transport of low-equivalent potential temperature, negative-buoyancy air left-of-shear and into the upshear semicircle, as well as low-level radial outflow upshear, which aid in reducing the areal extent of strong upward motions, thereby reducing the vertical mass flux in the inner core, and stunting TC development.