Recent Trends in Oceanic Conditions in the Western Part of East/Japan Sea: An Analysis of Climate Regime Shift That Occurred after the Late 1990s

The western part of East/Japan Sea (WES) is an important area for understanding climate change processes and interactions between atmospheric and oceanic conditions. We analyzed the trends in recent oceanic conditions in the WES after the recent climate regime shift (CRS) that occurred in the late 1990s in the North Pacific. We explored the most important climate factors that affect oceanic conditions and determined their responses to changes in climate change. In the CRS that occurred in the late 1980s, changes in oceanic conditions in the WES were influenced by intensity changes in climate factors, and, in the late 1990s, it was by spatial changes in climate factors. The latitudinal shift of the Aleutian low (AL) pressure influences recent changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the WES. The intensity of the Kuroshio Current and the sea level pressure in the Kuroshio extension region associated with the latitudinal shift of the AL pressure affects the volume of transport of the warm and saline water mass that flows into the WES and its atmospheric conditions. In addition, the fluctuations in the oceanic conditions of the WES affect various regions and depth layers differently, and these variations are evident even within the WES.

The slowdown tends to be greater for stronger tropical cyclones

Understanding the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) has become a hot topic. The slowdown of TC translation speed contributes greatly to the locally accumulated TC damage. While the recent observational evidence shows that TC translation speed has decreased globally by 10% since the mid-twentieth century, the robustness of the trend is questioned by other studies as effects of changes in observational capability can strongly affect the global trend. Moreover, none of the published studies considered dependence of TC slowdown on TC intensity. This is the caveat of these analyses as the effect of TC slowdown is closely related to TC intensity. Here, we investigate the relationship between TC translation speed trend and TC intensity, and reveal possible reasons for the trend. We show that the global slowing trend without weak TC moments (≤ 17 m s-1) is about double of that with weak TC moments in a recent study. This is because the slowing trend is dominated by strong TCs’ trend. Stronger (weaker) TCs tend to be controlled more by upper-level (lower-level) steering flow, and the calculated trend of upper-level steering flow is much larger than that of lower-level steering flow. This may be an important reason for the large difference between the slowing trend without weak TC moments and that with weak TC moments. Furthermore, the changes of TC tracks (including inter-basin trend and latitudinal shift), which are partly attributed to data inhomogeneity, make a much larger contribution to the slowing trend, compared with the weakening of tropical circulation, which is related to anthropogenic warming.

An investigation of the bias in the median track of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems over the Indian subcontinent in CESM1.2.2 simulations

<p>Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic scale tropical disturbances that form in the Indian subcontinent over the quasi-stationary monsoon trough axis during the monsoon period (June to September). In a recent study, we showed that 60-70% of monsoon rainfall and 78% of extreme precipitation events in India are associated with LPS. Global circulation models (GCMs) have been used to understand the behavior of tropical disturbances in the past. It has been found that model resolution plays a key role in simulating the climatology of tropical storms, with finer resolution (of the order of 20-100km) required to better represent the genesis and propagation of these storms. As GCMs can be run at these finer resolutions today, various characteristics of LPS in the Indian subcontinent can be studied. It has been found that most CMIP5 GCMs show a southward latitudinal shift in the monsoon trough location and hence in the LPS tracks and associated characteristics. This shift has been attributed to a weaker simulated meridional tropospheric temperature gradient (MTG) in the models. However, the cause of weaker MTG in models is not known. In this study, we investigate the reason for the weaker MTG and hence the southward latitudinal shift of LPS tracks in the Climate Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2). A present-day control simulation is performed at 0.9°×1.25° horizontal resolution, and output is saved at 6-hourly intervals for LPS track analysis. We find that CESM is capable of simulating the general behavior of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent in terms of seasonality, propagation of monsoon rainfall, and mean monsoon winds. LPS are tracked in the CESM outputs by our recently proposed Automated Tracking Algorithm using Geopotential Criteria (ATAGC). A southward latitudinal shift is observed in the median track of LPS in CESM present-day simulations. The value of MTG is also significantly smaller compared to the observed MTG. The results from investigations on the likely causes for the weaker MTG in CESM will be presented at the meeting.</p>

On the robustness of an eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem exposed to multiple stressors

The resistance of an east border upwelling system was investigated using relative index of marine pelagic biomass estimates under a changing environment spanning 20-years in the strongly exploited southern Canary Current Large marine Ecosystem (sCCLME). We divided the sCCLME in two parts (north and south of Cap Blanc), based on oceanographic regimes. We delineated two size-based groups (“plankton” and “pelagic fish”) corresponding to lower and higher trophic levels, respectively. Over the 20-year period, all spatial remote sensing environmental variables increased significantly, except in the area south of Cap Blanc where sea surface Chlorophyll-a concentrations declined and the upwelling favorable wind was stable. Relative index of marine pelagic abundance was higher in the south area compared to the north area of Cap Blanc. No significant latitudinal shift to the mass center was detected, regardless of trophic level. Relative pelagic abundance did not change, suggesting sCCLME pelagic organisms were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Despite strong annual variability and the presence of major stressors (overfishing, climate change), the marine pelagic ressources, mainly fish and plankton remained relatively stable over the two decades, advancing our understanding on the resistance of this east border upwelling system.

Climate change and species distribution: the case of Calopteryx haemorrhoidalis (Odonata Calopterygidae) in Piedmont (Italy)

Climate change affects species and biological systems in several ways and is documented to be responsible of species distribution shifts. Odonata are reported to respond quickly to climate change, and in last years several Mediterranean species have expanded their range northwards in Europe. In this note, we report the first records of reproductive populations of Calopteryx haemorrhoidalis in Piedmont (NW Italy), suggesting a northwards latitudinal shift of the range of the species in Italy. The reports of Mediterranean dragonflies and damselflies that in the last years have been recorded for the first time in Piedmont are also outlined.

Distribution statistique de la taille imaginale de Pterostichus madidus (Fabricius, 1775) dans les plaines de l’est de la France : de la nécessité de rechercher ses composantes géographiques et historiques

Pterostichus madidus (Fabricius, 1775) imaginal body size is defined as the distance between elytron and mandible tips, when mandibles lay in their resting position. Its statistical distribution was estimated from 658 specimens, that had been pitfall-trapped in the 2007-2016 year span along a northward transect across the French lowlands of Côte-d’Or, Meurthe-et-Moselle and Moselle. The sampling targeted exploited, protected and unmanaged woodlands. It involved one national and two regional nature reserves. No response to the deliberately restricted elevational range was detected. Females displayed the more obvious response to the latitudinal shift, which took the form of a steep inversed Bergmann’s cline. The ones, that originated from the transect southernmost end were found to be 0.7 millimeters longer on average. Though males variance turned out to be heterogeneous and their latitudinal cline to be made looser by some important local variation, no significant southward increase of sexual dimorphism could be demonstrated. Specimens pooled from our 2012-2016 collections in Côte-d’Or were compared to an additional museum sample, that gathered beetles obtained from the same or neighboring locations in 1978-1998. It was observed, that the 2012-2016 females had lengthened by an average amount of 0.7 mm, thus yielding a first coleopteran case of a generational shift for a terrestrial species observed within its natural range and under natural conditions. Given the phenomenon spatial scale, the likelihood of it being a response to climate change is discussed considering knowledge gaps about larval trophic network and theoretical models of ectotherm organisms reaction to temperature increase.

Variations of the Somali upwelling since 18.5 ka BP and its relationship with southwest monsoon rainfall

Somali upwelling history has been reconstructed for the last 18.5 ka BP based on biogenic silica fluxes estimated from a sediment core retrieved from the western Arabian Sea. Surface winds along the east African coast during the southwest monsoon (SWM) cause the Somali upwelling; thus, the intensity of this upwelling has been related to the variability of the SWM. Biogenic silica flux variation suggests periodic weakening and strengthening of the Somali upwelling. Weakened upwelling during the 18.5–15 ka BP period and strengthened upwelling during the Bølling–Allerød (15–12.9 ka BP) suggest the onset of the SWM. The Younger Dryas (12.9–11.7 ka BP) is marked by reduced upwelling strength, with an intensification of the Somali upwelling observed at the beginning of the Holocene and a further decline at 8 ka BP. The increase in the upwelling strength recorded since 8 ka BP suggests SWM strengthening during the latter part of the Holocene. A comparison of upwelling variations with the SWM precipitation record demonstrates a reversal in the relationship between the strength of the Somali upwelling and SWM rainfall at the beginning of the Holocene. This observed shift has been attributed to the variation in the SWM strength due to the latitudinal shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) associated with changes in moisture sources.

Plant diversity increases with the strength of negative density dependence at the global scale

Theory predicts that higher biodiversity in the tropics is maintained by specialized interactions among plants and their natural enemies that result in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). By using more than 3000 species and nearly 2.4 million trees across 24 forest plots worldwide, we show that global patterns in tree species diversity reflect not only stronger CNDD at tropical versus temperate latitudes but also a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance. CNDD was stronger for rare species at tropical versus temperate latitudes, potentially causing the persistence of greater numbers of rare species in the tropics. Our study reveals fundamental differences in the nature of local-scale biotic interactions that contribute to the maintenance of species diversity across temperate and tropical communities.