The Anomalous Weather Parameters that Lead to the Extreme Rainfall of Kerala in August 2018

Extremely heavy rainfall has been occurred over Kerala, southwest coast of India, during mid-August 2018. The meteorological conditions during this period are analysed, and it is found that a combination of many rain favouring conditions prevailed at that time. The positive phase of Madden Julian Oscillation coupled with a monsoon depression in the Bay of Bengal and a weak trough in the south-eastern Arabian Sea strengthened the Monsoon Low Level Jet bringing moisture-laden winds over Kerala. The rising limb of Walker and Hadley circulations was also found over Kerala, which gave favourable updraft for cloud formation. In addition, the core of the Tropical Easterly Jet was found over the Kerala and Karnataka region. The cyclonic circulation in the mid-troposphere observed around the monsoon depression extended up to the west coast of India. Simultaneous occurrences of all these could have contributed to the extreme rainfall events and severe floods over Kerala.

Enhanced Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean Rainfall Breaks down the Tropical Easterly Jet-Indian Rainfall Relationship

Previous studies found a tight connection between the tropical easterly jet (TEJ) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Here we show that the TEJ-ISMR relationship is nonstationary and breaks down from 1994–2003 (epoch P2), in contrast to the significant positive correlation during the epoch P1 (1979–1993) and P3 (2004–2016). The breakdown of the TEJ-ISMR relationship concurs with the increased rainfall variability over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO). The enhanced TEIO rainfall anomalies excite a significant lower-level cyclonic circulation that reduces the ISMR, meanwhile, strengthens the upper-level divergence and excites a pair of upper-level anticyclone to the west of the TEIO as Rossby wave responses, both accelerating the TEJ. Thus, the TEIO rainfall plays a more important role than the ISMR in the TEJ variability during P2, causing the breakdown of the TEJ-ISMR relationship. In contrast, a relatively weak amplitude of the TEIO rainfall during P1 and P3 was unable to change the positive TEJ-ISMR relationship. The changes in the TEIO rainfall variability is mainly attributed to the increased SST variability over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean, but the cause of it remains elusive.

ENSO Teleconnection to Eastern African Summer Rainfall in Global Climate Models: Role of the Tropical Easterly Jet

Global climate models (GCMs) are critical tools for understanding and projecting climate variability and change, yet the performance of these models is notoriously weak over much of tropical Africa. To improve this situation, process-based studies of African climate dynamics and their representation in GCMs are required. Here, we focus on summer rainfall of eastern Africa (SREA), which is crucial to the Ethiopian Highlands and feeds the flow of the Blue Nile River. The SREA region is highly vulnerable to droughts, with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) being a leading cause of interannual rainfall variability. Adequate understanding and accurate representation of climate features that influence regional variability is an important but often neglected issue when evaluating models. We perform a process-based evaluation of GCMs, focusing on the upper-troposphere tropical easterly jet (TEJ), which has been hypothesized to link ENSO to SREA. We find that most models have an ENSO–TEJ coupling similar to observed, but the models diverge in their representation of TEJ–SREA coupling. Differences in the latter explain the majority (80%) of variability in ENSO teleconnection simulation across the models. This is higher than the variance explained by rainfall coupling with the Somali jet (44%) and African easterly jet (55%). However, our diagnostics of the leading hypothesized mechanism in the models—variability in divergence in the TEJ exit region—are not consistent across models and suggest that a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of TEJ–precipitation coupling should be a priority for studies of climate variability and change in the region.

Dramatic Weakening of the Tropical Easterly Jet Projected by CMIP6 Models

The upper-level tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a crucial component of the summer monsoon system and tropical general circulation. The simulation and projection of the TEJ, however, have not been assessed. Here we evaluate models’ fidelity and assess the future change of the TEJ by utilizing 16 models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most of the models can reproduce the TEJ reasonably well in terms of climatology, seasonal evolution, and interannual variability. Nevertheless, underestimation of the TEJ’s intensity and extent is identified, with the maximum bias occurring in the jet centers over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5, the multimodel ensemble projects a remarkable reduction in the central TEJ intensity by about 18% over the IO and 77% over the EP toward the end of the twenty-first century. The mean intensity of TEJ will weaken by about 11%, and the extent will reduce by 6%, suggesting a significantly weakened upper-level monsoon circulation in the future climate. The projected El Niño–like warming pattern over the tropical Pacific may play a critical role in the future weakening of the TEJ via inducing suppressed rainfall over the tropical eastern IO and Central America. The model uncertainties in the projected TEJ changes may arise from the uncertainties in the models’ projected tropical EP warming. The sensitivity of future projections to model selection is also examined. Results show that the selection of models based on different physical considerations does not yield a significantly different projection.

Opposite Effects of ENSO on the Rainfall over the Northern and Equatorial Great Horn of Africa and Possible Causes

In this study, we explore the possible mechanism of opposite ENSO effects on summer rainfall in the JJAS region (northern GHA) and autumn rainfall in the OND region (equatorial GHA). The two regions are identified based on the spatial distribution of high seasonal fractions of annual rainfall for the period 1979–2016. The summer rainfall over the JJAS region is negatively correlated with ENSO. It is because the warm Niño3.4 SST triggers zonal wave one pattern in tropics and forces upper-level westerly anomaly and the low-level easterly anomaly over tropical Africa. Thus, the weakened upper-level Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and the low-level westerly over the JJAS region result in deficient rainfall during JJAS over the northern GHA. For the autumn rainfall variability over the equatorial GHA, IOD is a pivotal factor. But, autumn rainfall anomalies are far greater in ENSO and IOD coexisting years than those in IOD alone years. In other words, ENSO has a significant impact on the autumn rainfall over the equatorial GHA by means of IOD. It is because the warming SST, which is fully developed over western Indian Ocean (IO) in autumn of ENSO developing year, causes low-level convergence over the equatorial GHA and enhances upper-level easterly over tropical Africa. Those conditions are favorable for abundant rainfall over the equatorial GHA in autumn.

A new perspective in understanding rainfall from satellites over a complex topographic region of India

Present study focuses on rainfall over Western Ghats (WG), a complex topographic region (elevation > 500 m) of India to evaluate and to better understand the satellite behavior in contrast with a flat region (FR) (elevation < 500 m) of central India from 1998 to 2016 using the combinatory data sets of TMPA and IMERG (satellite rainfall estimation). The categorical Intra Seasonal Oscillations (ISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) namely, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Quasi Bi-Weekly Oscillation (QBWO) are tested in satellite and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data sets to find out the satellite performance. As the accurate estimation of rainfall from satellites over higher elevation zones is challenging, here we propose a new perspective to select the rainfall products of satellite for better comparison with ground measurements. Considering the satellite’s best capability in detecting the cold clouds resulting from deep convection and its coupling with higher-level circulation, we show that the rainfall from satellites yield fruitful comparison with ground measurements when moist static stability, tropical easterly jet is above the climatological values.

Sahel Rainfall–Tropical Easterly Jet Relationship on Synoptic to Intraseasonal Time Scales

The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a characteristic upper-level feature of the West African monsoon (WAM) circulation. Moreover, the TEJ over West Africa is significantly correlated with summer Sahel rainfall on interannual and decadal time scales. In contrast, the relationship between Sahel rainfall and the regional TEJ on synoptic to intraseasonal time scales is unclear. Therefore, this relationship is investigated by means of multiple statistical analyses using temporally highly resolved measurement and reanalysis data. It is shown that average correlations between convective activity and regional TEJ intensity remain below 0.3 for all synoptic to intraseasonal time scales. Especially on the synoptic time scale, the TEJ significantly lags anomalies in convective activity by one or two days, which indicates that convection anomalies are more likely to drive changes in the regional TEJ than vice versa. To further shed light on the role of the TEJ for rainfall over West Africa, a previously proposed effect of TEJ-induced upper-level divergence on the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is examined more closely. An analysis of nearly 300 Sahelian MCSs shows that their initiation is generally not associated with significant TEJ anomalies or jet-induced upper-level divergence. Furthermore, no statistically significant evidence is found that preexisting TEJ-related upper-level divergence anomalies affect intensity, size, and lifetime of MCSs. A limiting factor of this study is the focus on TEJ-induced upper-level divergence. Therefore, a possible effect of the TEJ on Sahel rainfall via other mechanisms cannot be ruled out and should be subject to future studies.