Structural consequences of cyclical change for marginal group employment

In Sweden and many other countries, young people and immigrants are facing increasing difficulties in finding employment. We suggest that the decline in employment prospects for marginal groups to a significant extent can be explained by skill upgrading and over-education. In two recent papers focusing on youth and immigrants, respectively, we find support for these hypotheses. The present paper examines how the long-term evolution of youth male employment is linked to cyclical economic change, and in particular to recessions. We base our empirical analyses on data from 31 OECD countries, 1970 to 2018. A basic hypothesis we aim to test is whether the distribution of cyclical points around the line of long-run evolution of general employment has a vertically asymmetrical pattern with respect to marginal employment, such that the relative employment rate of marginal groups declines more in economic downturns (recessions) than it rises in economic upturns. If this asymmetry occurs systematically (repeatedly) over extended periods of time, cyclical change will have structural effects. We find support for this hypothesis based on our analysis of youth male employment. We suggest that two kinds of mechanism are at work in the interaction between cyclical and structural change. The first mechanism is operating from the structure to the cycle: low-skill jobs become increasingly unviable economically, but only slowly and gradually until a marked loss in general demand triggers significant employment decline tilted toward low-skill jobs. Restructuring of work organizations in the wake of the recession makes the return of low-skill jobs in the recovery less than complete. The second kind of mechanism operates in the other direction, i.e., from the cycle to the structure: the rate of educational expansion typically accelerates in recessions. This will in turn speed up the rate of over-education which tends to have a negative impact on marginal employment. We provide descriptive empirical evidence indicating that both these mechanisms are indeed active. In sum, recessions accelerate upward shifts in the skill structure that in turn depress the labor market prospects of male youth, with both links in the chain being of a lasting rather than temporary kind.

An ERP Study on Attraction Effects in Advanced L2 Learners

In English, the rule of agreement is quite simple: verbs must agree with their subject head nouns in terms of number features. Despite this simplicity, agreement processing is always interrupted when the subject phrase of the sentence “The key to the cabinets is on the table,” contains two nouns with a mismatch in number features commonly known as attraction effects. This study used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine whether late advanced second language (L2) learners can acquire native-like sensitivity of attraction effects. The results revealed that L2 learners showed ERP patterns qualitatively similar to native English speakers: ungrammatical verbs following singular attractors elicited a P600 effect relative to their grammatical counterparts, whereas this positivity was replaced by an N400 effect when plural attractors intervened between the subject head nouns and the verbs. Of particular interest, given that, compared to native speakers, the amplitude of the P600 effect elicited by L2 learners was smaller, there was a quantitative difference between native speakers and L2 learners. We proposed that these two ERP components represented the two processing routes of agreement: the P600 effect indexed a full, combinatorial process, which parsed morphosyntactic features between agreement controllers and targets, whereas the N400 effect indexed a shallow, heuristic process, which evaluated lexical associations between agreeing elements. Moreover, similar to native speakers, advanced L2 learners showed an asymmetrical pattern of attraction effects, in that plural attractors were interfered with ungrammaticality at disagreeing verbs, but they did not cause any difficulties in processing grammatical sentences at agreeing verbs. The overall results suggested that compared to native processing, L2 processing of complex agreement with attractor interference was shallower and therefore late advanced L2 learners could not achieve native-like attraction effects.

Neural Processing of Spectral and Durational Changes in Speech and Non-speech Stimuli: An MMN Study With Czech Adults

Neural discrimination of auditory contrasts is usually studied via the mismatch negativity (MMN) component of the event-related potentials (ERPs). In the processing of speech contrasts, the magnitude of MMN is determined by both the acoustic as well as the phonological distance between stimuli. Also, the MMN can be modulated by the order in which the stimuli are presented, thus indexing perceptual asymmetries in speech sound processing. Here we assessed the MMN elicited by two types of phonological contrasts, namely vowel quality and vowel length, assuming that both will elicit a comparably strong MMN as both are phonemic in the listeners’ native language (Czech) and perceptually salient. Furthermore, we tested whether these phonemic contrasts are processed asymmetrically, and whether the asymmetries are acoustically or linguistically conditioned. The MMN elicited by the spectral change between /a/ and /ε/ was comparable to the MMN elicited by the durational change between /ε/ and /ε:/, suggesting that both types of contrasts are perceptually important for Czech listeners. The spectral change in vowels yielded an asymmetrical pattern manifested by a larger MMN response to the change from /ε/ to /a/ than from /a/ to /ε/. The lack of such an asymmetry in the MMN to the same spectral change in comparable non-speech stimuli spoke against an acoustically-based explanation, indicating that it may instead have been the phonological properties of the vowels that triggered the asymmetry. The potential phonological origins of the asymmetry are discussed within the featurally underspecified lexicon (FUL) framework, and conclusions are drawn about the perceptual relevance of the place and height features for the Czech /ε/-/a/ contrast.

The neural timecourse of American English vowel discrimination by Japanese, Russian and Spanish second-language learners of English

This study investigated the influence of first language (L1) phoneme features and phonetic salience on discrimination of second language (L2) American English (AE) vowels. On a perceptual task, L2 adult learners of English with Spanish, Japanese or Russian as an L1 showed poorer discrimination of the spectral-only difference between /æ:/ as the oddball (deviant) among frequent /ɑ:/ stimuli compared to AE controls. The Spanish listeners showed a significant difference from the controls for the spectral-temporal contrast between /ɑ:/ and /ʌ/ for both perception and the neural Mismatch Negativity (MMN), but only for deviant /ɑ:/ versus /ʌ/ (duration decrement). For deviant /ʌ/ versus /ɑ:/, and for deviant /æ:/ versus /ʌ/ or /ɑ:/, all participants showed equivalent MMN amplitude. The asymmetrical pattern for /ɑ:/ and /ʌ/ suggested that L2 phonetic detail was maintained only for the deviant. These findings indicated that discrimination was more strongly influenced by L1 phonology than phonetic salience.

Convective Coupling in Tropical-Depression-Type Waves. Part I: Rainfall Characteristics and Moisture Structure

Tropical-depression (TD)-type waves are synoptic-scale disturbances embedded with deep convection over the western North Pacific. Studies of these disturbances began over six decades ago; however, some properties of these disturbances remain vague, e.g., the coupling mechanism between the deep convection and the waves. This two-part study aims to examine the rainfall progression in TD-type disturbances and associated tropospheric moisture controlling convective rainfall. Part I investigates the rainfall and moisture characteristics of TD-type waves using TRMM-derived rainfall products and the ERA-Interim data during the period of June–October 1998–2013. The rainfall features a north–south asymmetrical pattern with respect to a TD-type disturbance, with enhanced convective and stratiform rainfall occurring in the southern portion. Along with the northwestward propagation, deep convective and stratiform rainfall occur in phase with the TD-type disturbance without significant preceding shallow convective rainfall. Following the deepest convection, shallow convective rainfall increases in the anomalous southerlies. Such a rainfall progression differs from the paradigm from shallow to deep convection, then to stratiform rainfall, which is suggested in other convectively coupled equatorial waves. The rainfall progression and the atmospheric moisture anomaly are phase locked to the TD-type disturbances such that the relative displacements change little when the disturbances propagate northwestward. The latent heat release in deep convection, which is obtained from the TRMM 3G25 dataset, superposes with a broad warm anomaly in the mid- to upper troposphere, suggesting wave growth through the generation of available potential energy from diabatic heating.

The Differences and Similarities between Curiosity and Interest: Meta-analysis and Network Analyses

The relationships and differences between curiosity and interest have received considerable attention and discussions. Yet, most of the discussions so far draw from little direct empirical evidence. In this set of three studies, the relationship between curiosity and interest were examined. The first study was a meta-analysis that examined the Pearson correlations between scales that aimed to assess curiosity and those that aimed to assess interest. Based on 24 studies (31 effect sizes), we found that curiosity scales correlate with interest scales at a moderate level (r = .53), but have extremely high heterogeneity, suggesting that the relationship largely depends on how they are conceptualized. The second and third studies applied network analyses (i.e., co-occurrence analysis and correlation-based analysis) to data collected using experience sampling method, examining how the subjective feelings of curiosity and interest are related. Across two studies, we found consistently differences between the feelings associated with curiosity and those associated with interest. While the feeling of curiosity was closer to feelings of inquisitiveness and eagerness to know more, the feeling of interest was closer to positive affects such as enjoyment and happiness. Most importantly, an asymmetrical pattern was found in curiosity-interest co-occurrences: when the feeling of curiosity occurred, the co-occurrences of the feeling of interest were highly likely, but not vice versa. That is, when the feeling of interest occurred, the feeling of curiosity was less likely to co-occur. The theoretical and practical implications of our findings are discussed.

ENGLISH AND INDONESIAN GREETINGS AS ADJACENCY PAIRS: A PRAGMATIC STUDY

A speaker customarily opens the conversation by saying greeting to his or her interlocutor. At a glance, greetings maybe not a complicated activity but for the most part, they are highly conventionalized and follow patterned routines. Despite it, the pattern or sequence of greetings along with its type is dynamic and developed. The research aimed to describe the kinds of verbal and non-verbal greetings customarily shown in every exchange, to reveal the sequence of English and Indonesian greetings as adjacency pairs in social exchange. The data consists of English collected from "Twelve Years a Slave" while Indonesian data are obtained from observation, record, and field notes. Both of the data are analyzed by using descriptive qualitative method. The result of this research indicates that there are four types of Indonesian sequential greetings uncovered by Firth's theory, characterized by interjection-question, question-body language, interjection-invitation, and invitation. Each is used in a single utterance for each pair. Second, English data indicate the sequences of greetings uttered by first pair and second are symmetrical, body language preceding question, and body language, on the other hand, Indonesian greeting sequence, the researcher finds an asymmetrical pattern, question preceding question, body language, and visual response. Miscellaneous greeting sequences also appeared in both such as affirmation and facial expression, question and affirmation, affirmation and invitation, invitation and affirmation, and also question and direct answer.

Confucianism, growth and democracy

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of Confucianism on growth under different political regimes.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical specification adopts a two-regime panel threshold model proposed by Hansen (1999) to endogenously divide our country sample into two-regime-types – autocracy and democracy – according to a country's democratic stock or experiences.FindingsThe results show that the effect of Confucianism on growth exhibits an asymmetrical pattern depending on the status of a country's political democracy. Only when a moderate level of freedom has already been attained can Confucianism have a positive effect on growth. Conversely, for autocracies whose democratic institutions cannot pass a certain threshold, Confucianism has a very limited effect in terms of changing economic activity.Research limitations/implicationsIf the data with different sample years and/or different sample countries are used, the research results may lack generalizability. Further tests of the two-regime model with different data sizes are encouraged.Originality/valueThe authors use the World Values Survey (WVS) map to identify the countries under the influence of Confucianism. The authors emphasize that focusing only on political geography may overlook the information from the spread of cultural traits that accompanied the migration of people. So, based on the Confucian countries suggested by the WVS and the migration matrix of Putterman and Weil (2010), an immigration-based Confucianism variable was constructed. To accommodate different effects of Confucianism on growth in different phases of political development, the empirical specification adopts an asymmetrical pattern to investigate the impact of Confucianism on economic performance.

Determination of pedestrian’s personal space in mass religious gatherings - A case study of Kumbh Mela

Personal space can be defined as the physical distance between two individuals in a social environment. It varies from person to person depending on culture and context and there are significant individual differences too. Studying personal space includes the ability to recognize the various zones of involvement and the activities, relationships, and emotions associated with each zone. This paper tries to formulate and define personal space in high density crowd situations in Kumbh Mela, one of the world’s largest mass religious gatherings. Video data of pilgrims taking part in the Panchkroshi Yatra, a religious walkathon which is a part of KumbhMela, is used for the analysis of factors affecting personal space. To identify the thresholds of personal space, walking speed of individuals, gender, presence of luggage and the number of males and females surrounding an individual have been considered. It is found that the average speed of the individual, the group size,and the gender ratio of group members have a significant effect on the personal space of an individual. Also, it is observed that the personal space follows an asymmetrical pattern rather than a symmetrical pattern.

Recent advances on the estimation of the thermal reaction norm for sex ratios

Temperature-dependent sex determination, or TSD, is a widespread phenomenon in reptiles. The shape of the relationship between constant incubation temperature and sex ratio defines the TSD pattern. The TSD pattern is considered a life-history parameter important for conservation because the wider the range of temperatures producing both sexes, the more resilient the species is to climate change impacts. We review the different published equations and methodologies that have been used to model TSD patterns. We describe a new flexible model that allows for an asymmetrical pattern around the pivotal temperature, which is the constant temperature producing both sexes in equal proportions. We show that Metropolis-Hastings with Markov chain produced by a Monte Carlo process has many advantages compared to maximum likelihood and is preferred. Finally, we apply the models to results from incubation experiments using eggs from the marine turtle Lepidochelys olivacea originating in Northeast Indian, East Pacific, and West Atlantic Regional Management Units (RMUs) and find large differences in pivotal temperatures but not in transitional ranges of temperatures.