scholarly journals Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 1093-1110
Author(s):  
Roman Brogli ◽  
Silje Lund Sørland ◽  
Nico Kröner ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Warming Pattern ◽  
Summer Warming ◽  
Reduced Surface

Abstract. Greenhouse-gas-driven global temperature change projections exhibit spatial variations, meaning that certain land areas will experience substantially enhanced or reduced surface warming. It is vital to understand enhanced regional warming anomalies as they locally increase heat-related risks to human health and ecosystems. We argue that tropospheric lapse-rate changes play a key role in shaping the future summer warming pattern around the globe in mid-latitudes and the tropics. We present multiple lines of evidence supporting this finding based on idealized simulations over Europe, as well as regional and global climate model ensembles. All simulations consistently show that the vertical distribution of tropospheric summer warming is different in regions characterized by enhanced or reduced surface warming. Enhanced warming is projected where lapse-rate changes are small, implying that the surface and the upper troposphere experience similar warming. On the other hand, strong lapse-rate changes cause a concentration of warming in the upper troposphere and reduced warming near the surface. The varying magnitude of lapse-rate changes is governed by the temperature dependence of the moist-adiabatic lapse rate and the available tropospheric humidity. We conclude that tropospheric temperature changes should be considered along with surface processes when assessing the causes of surface warming patterns.

scholarly journals Future summer warming pattern under climate change is regulated by lapse-rate changes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Brogli ◽  
Silje Lund Sørland ◽  
Nico Kröner ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Warming Pattern ◽  
Summer Warming ◽  
Reduced Surface

Abstract. Greenhouse gas-driven global temperature change projections exhibit spatial variations, meaning that certain land areas will experience substantially enhanced or reduced surface warming. It is vital to understand enhanced regional warming anomalies as they locally increase heat-related risks to human health and ecosystems. We argue that tropospheric lapse-rate changes play a key role in shaping the future summer warming pattern around the globe in mid-latitudes and the tropics. We present multiple lines of evidence supporting this finding based on idealized simulations over Europe, as well as regional and global climate model ensembles. All simulations consistently show that the vertical distribution of tropospheric summer warming is different in regions characterized by enhanced or reduced surface warming. Enhanced warming is projected where lapse-rate changes are small, implying that the surface and the upper troposphere experience similar warming. On the other hand, strong lapse-rate changes cause a concentration of warming in the upper troposphere and reduced warming near the surface. The varying magnitude of lapse-rate changes is governed by the temperature dependence of the moist-adiabatic lapse rate and the available tropospheric humidity. We conclude that tropospheric temperature changes should be considered along with surface processes when assessing the causes of surface warming patterns.

Sub-micrometer aerosol particles in the upper troposphere/lowermost stratosphere as measured by CARIBIC and modeled using the MIT-CAM3 global climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 117 (D11) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Annica M. L. Ekman ◽  
Markus Hermann ◽  
Peter Groß ◽  
Jost Heintzenberg ◽  
Dongchul Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Aerosol Particles ◽  
Upper Troposphere

scholarly journals Sensitivity of remote aerosol distributions to representation of cloud-aerosol interactions in a global climate model

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 331-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Wang ◽  
R. C. Easter ◽  
P. J. Rasch ◽  
M. Wang ◽  
X. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Convective Transport ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Wet Removal

Abstract. Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in the Arctic winter (summer) BC burden. This BC aging treatment, however, has minimal effect on other under-predicted species. Interestingly, our modifications to CAM5 that aim at improving prediction of high-latitude and upper tropospheric aerosols also produce much better aerosol optical depth over various other regions globally when compared to multi-year AERONET retrievals. The improved aerosol distributions have impacts on other aspects of CAM5, improving the simulation of global mean liquid water path and cloud forcing.

scholarly journals Critically Reassessing Tropospheric Temperature Trends from Radiosondes Using Realistic Validation Experiments

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 465-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly A. Titchner ◽  
P. W. Thorne ◽  
M. P. McCarthy ◽  
S. F. B. Tett ◽  
L. Haimberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Validation Experiments

Abstract Biases and uncertainties in large-scale radiosonde temperature trends in the troposphere are critically reassessed. Realistic validation experiments are performed on an automatic radiosonde homogenization system by applying it to climate model data with four distinct sets of simulated breakpoint profiles. Knowledge of the “truth” permits a critical assessment of the ability of the system to recover the large-scale trends and a reinterpretation of the results when applied to the real observations. The homogenization system consistently reduces the bias in the daytime tropical, global, and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical trends but underestimates the full magnitude of the bias. Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical and all nighttime trends were less well adjusted owing to the sparsity of stations. The ability to recover the trends is dependent on the underlying error structure, and the true trend does not necessarily lie within the range of estimates. The implications are that tropical tropospheric trends in the unadjusted daytime radiosonde observations, and in many current upper-air datasets, are biased cold, but the degree of this bias cannot be robustly quantified. Therefore, remaining biases in the radiosonde temperature record may account for the apparent tropical lapse rate discrepancy between radiosonde data and climate models. Furthermore, the authors find that the unadjusted global and NH extratropical tropospheric trends are biased cold in the daytime radiosonde observations. Finally, observing system experiments show that, if the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Upper Air Network (GUAN) were to make climate quality observations adhering to the GCOS monitoring principles, then one would be able to constrain the uncertainties in trends at a more comprehensive set of stations. This reaffirms the importance of running GUAN under the GCOS monitoring principles.

scholarly journals The Regional Climate Impact of a Realistic Future Deforestation Scenario in the Congo Basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2714-2734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Akkermans ◽  
Wim Thiery ◽  
Nicole P. M. Van Lipzig
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Congo Basin ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Heat Low

Abstract The demand for agricultural land in the Congo basin is expected to yield substantial deforestation over the coming decades. Although several studies exist on the climatological impact of deforestation in the Congo basin, deforestation scenarios that are implemented in climate models are generally crude. This study aims to refine current impact assessments by removing the primary forest according to an existing spatially explicit scenario, and replacing it by successional vegetation typically observed for the Congo basin. This is done within the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model in climate mode (COSMO-CLM), a regional climate model at 25-km grid spacing coupled to a state-of-the-art soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer scheme (Community Land Model). An evaluation of the model shows good performance compared to in situ and satellite observations. Model integrations indicate that the deforestation, expected for the middle of the twenty-first century, induces a warming of about 0.7°C. This is about half the greenhouse gas–induced surface warming in this region, given an intermediate emission scenario (A1B) with COSMO-CLM driven by the ECHAM5 global climate model. This shows the necessity of taking into account deforestation to obtain realistic future climate projections. The deforestation-induced warming can be attributed to reduced evaporation, but this effect is mitigated by increased albedo and increased sensible heat loss to the atmosphere. Precipitation is also affected: as a consequence of surface warming resulting from deforestation, a regional heat low develops over the rain forest region. Resulting low-level convergence causes a redistribution of moisture in the boundary layer and a stabilization of the atmospheric column, thereby reducing convection intensity and hence precipitation by 5%–10% in the region of the heat low.

scholarly journals Accounting for Several Infrared Radiation Processes in Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (15) ◽  
pp. 4601-4620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Wu ◽  
Jiangnan Li ◽  
Jason Cole ◽  
Xianglei Huang ◽  
Knut von Salzen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Single Band ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Radiation Processes

AbstractThree aspects of longwave (LW) radiation processes are investigated using numerical experiments with the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model version 4.3 (CanAM4.3). These are the overlapping LW and shortwave (SW) radiation, scattering by clouds, and specification of ocean emissivity. For the overlapping of solar and infrared spectra, using a single band scheme was compared against a method directly inputting solar energy. Offline calculations show that for high clouds using the single band can cause an overestimate of the downward LW flux, whereas a method that accounts for input solar energy in the LW yields results that are more accurate. Longwave scattering by clouds traps more infrared energy in the atmosphere and reduces the outgoing radiation to space. Simulations with CanAM4.3 show that cloud LW scattering can enhance the LW cooling rate above the tropopause and reduce it inside the troposphere, resulting in warmer temperatures, especially in the tropics and low latitudes. This implies a larger temperature gradient toward the polar region, which causes a strengthening of the Hadley circulation and shifting of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The increase in lower tropospheric temperature also affects the lower troposphere water vapor and precipitation. Sensitivity to the specification of ocean emissivity is examined by comparing a broadband scheme dependent on the surface wind and solar zenith angle against one that resolves the wavelength dependence. Experiments with CanAM4.3 show that the two oceanic emissivity schemes can produce over 1 W m−2 seasonal mean difference of the upward flux at the surface.

scholarly journals A single column simulation-based decomposition of the tropical upper tropospheric warming

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Yuwei Wang ◽  
Yi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Dilution Effect ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Single Column ◽  
Convective Adjustment

AbstractAn atmospheric global climate model (GCM) and its associated single-column model are used to study the tropical upper tropospheric warming and elucidate how different processes drive this warming. In this modeling framework, on average the direct radiative process accounts for 13% of the total warming. The radiation increases the atmospheric lapse rate and triggers more convection, which further produces 74% of the total warming. The rest 13% is attributable to the circulation adjustment. The relative importance of these processes differs in different regions. In the deep tropics, the radiative-convective adjustment produces the most significant warming and accounts for almost 100% of the total warming. In the subtropics, the radiative-convective adjustment accounts for 73% of the total warming and the circulation adjustment plays a more important role than in the deep tropics, especially at the levels above 200 hPa. When the lateral boundary conditions, i.e. the temperature and water vapor advections, are held fixed in single-column simulations, the tropospheric relative humidity significantly increases in the radiative-convective adjustment in response to the surface warming. This result, in contrast to the relative humidity conservation behavior in the GCM, highlights the importance of circulation adjustment in maintaining the constant relative humidity. The tropical upper tropospheric warming in both the full GCM and the single-column simulations is found to be less strong than the warming predicted by reference moist adiabats. This evidences that the sub-moist-adiabat warming occurs even without the dilution effect of the large-scale circulation adjustment.

scholarly journals Surging of Global Surface Temperature due to Decadal Legacy of Ocean Heat Uptake

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (18) ◽  
pp. 8025-8045
Author(s):  
Bablu Sinha ◽  
Florian Sévellec ◽  
Jon Robson ◽  
A. J. George Nurser
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Gradient ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Base Layer ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Surface

AbstractGlobal surface warming since 1850 has consisted of a series of slowdowns (hiatus) followed by surges. Knowledge of a mechanism to explain how this occurs would aid development and testing of interannual to decadal climate forecasts. In this paper a global climate model is forced to adopt an ocean state corresponding to a hiatus [with negative interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and other surface features typical of a hiatus] by artificially increasing the background diffusivity for a decade before restoring it to its normal value and allowing the model to evolve freely. This causes the model to develop a decadal surge that overshoots equilibrium (resulting in a positive IPO state), leaving behind a modified, warmer climate for decades. Water-mass transformation diagnostics indicate that the heat budget of the tropical Pacific Ocean is a balance between large opposite-signed terms: surface heating/cooling resulting from air–sea heat flux is balanced by vertical mixing and ocean heat transport divergence. During the artificial hiatus, excess heat becomes trapped just above the thermocline and there is a weak vertical thermal gradient (due to the high artificial background mixing). When the hiatus is terminated, by returning the background diffusivity to normal, the thermal gradient strengthens to prehiatus values so that the mixing (diffusivity × thermal gradient) remains roughly constant. However, since the base layer just above the thermocline remains anomalously warm, this implies a warming of the entire water column above the trapped heat, which results in a surge followed by a prolonged period of elevated surface temperatures.

scholarly journals Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011)

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 32993-33012 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. McLandress ◽  
J. Perlwitz ◽  
T. G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Incomplete Removal

Abstract. In a recent paper Hu et al. (2011) suggest that the recovery of stratospheric ozone during the first half of this century will significantly enhance free tropospheric and surface warming caused by the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases, with the effects being most pronounced in Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These surprising results are based on a multi-model analysis of IPCC AR4 model simulations with and without prescribed stratospheric ozone recovery. Hu et al. suggest that in order to properly quantify the tropospheric and surface temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery, it is necessary to run coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models with stratospheric ozone chemistry. The results of such an experiment are presented here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model. In contrast to Hu et al., we find a much smaller Northern Hemisphere tropospheric temperature response to ozone recovery, which is of opposite sign. We argue that their result is an artifact of the incomplete removal of the large effect of greenhouse gas warming between the two different sets of models.

scholarly journals Attributing Historical and Future Evolution of Radiative Feedbacks to Regional Warming Patterns using a Green’s Function Approach: The Preeminence of the Western Pacific

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (17) ◽  
pp. 5471-5491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Dong ◽  
Cristian Proistosescu ◽  
Kyle C. Armour ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Green’S Function ◽  
Green's Function ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Future ◽  
Radiative Feedbacks ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract Global radiative feedbacks have been found to vary in global climate model (GCM) simulations. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) driven with historical patterns of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations produce radiative feedbacks that trend toward more negative values, implying low climate sensitivity, over recent decades. Freely evolving coupled GCMs driven by increasing CO2 produce radiative feedbacks that trend toward more positive values, implying increasing climate sensitivity, in the future. While this time variation in feedbacks has been linked to evolving SST patterns, the role of particular regions has not been quantified. Here, a Green’s function is derived from a suite of simulations within an AGCM (NCAR’s CAM4), allowing an attribution of global feedback changes to surface warming in each region. The results highlight the radiative response to surface warming in ascent regions of the western tropical Pacific as the dominant control on global radiative feedback changes. Historical warming from the 1950s to 2000s preferentially occurred in the western Pacific, yielding a strong global outgoing radiative response at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and thus a strongly negative global feedback. Long-term warming in coupled GCMs occurs preferentially in tropical descent regions and in high latitudes, where surface warming yields small global TOA radiation change but large global surface air temperature change, and thus a less-negative global feedback. These results illuminate the importance of determining mechanisms of warm pool warming for understanding how feedbacks have varied historically and will evolve in the future.

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