Application Of Statistical Modeling To Interpret A Health System Crisis In Sri Lanka Due To COVID- 19

This paper will discuss the application of statistic modeling to interpret a health system crisis in Sri Lanka due to COVID- 19.A strong focus on the preventive approach and the contact tracing with the utilization of available resources in a rational manner describes Sri Lanka’s response towards COVID- 19 prevention and mitigation. The early contact tracing, preemptive quarantining, isolation, and treatment were implemented as a concerted effort. This approach, proven efficient during the early phase of the pandemic, was sustainable when there was a rapid increase in the COVID- 19 patients since July 2021, exceeding the health system capacity.The country’s COVID- 19 situation during the period from 01st of August 2021 to 31st of October 2021 was taken into consideration. Variables used for analysis were; total number of cases, recovered cases, comorbid and O2 dependent patients, ICU patients, and deaths. The regression model was applied to analyze the data by using the EViews 12 (x64) software application.The correlation coefficients of all the independent variables under consideration implies that they have a strong positive relationship with the number of deaths occurred during the said period. According to the computed multiple linear regression model, the number of positive cases and O2 dependents have a positive relationship with the dependent variable. Further, the Durbin- Watson stat value of the model and multicollinearity test reflect that it is free from serial correlation thereby the model is fit. From the perspective of epidemiological control, these findings highlight the importance of keeping the number of cases within the limits of health system capacity.

ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF FREIGHT CAR TECHNICAL STATE

The purpose of this work is the assessment and forecasting of freight car technical state at life stages. The scientific novelty consists in the definition of car operating run-up to the first failure and between failures, and also in the definition of car life to considerable repair fulfillment from the operating run between failures and development of a graphical model of freight car reliability. As a result of the statistic modeling of gondola car operating runs up to the first failure it is defined that the given random value conforms to a normal distribution law, the first car setoff in TOR due to wear failure takes place at the operating run of 85,000 km. Besides the operating run-up to the first failure there was defined an operating run-up between failures. It is proved that the operating run-up between failures conforms to the exponential law of distribution, the mathematical expectation of which is 13,000 km. The results of investigations mentioned above formed the basis of the graphical model of car reliability. An inter-repair service life of a car can be represented as a sum of the following operating run-ups: operating run-ups to the first failure, the product of operating run-ups between failures and the number of failures and a residual operating run-up (from the utmost current repair to the nearest scheduled repair). On the basis of the mentioned it is expedient to consider a technology for the realization of an enlarged repair with the purpose of the repetition exclusion in car setoffs during the inter-repair term. On the basis of the simulator there is obtained the dependence of the frequency of car enlarged current repair fulfillment depending on average operating run-up between failures. At present an enlarged current repair must be carried out only for gondola cars in the planned order after having reached 80,000 km. The repair mentioned can be carried out both under depot conditions, and under conditions of repair workshops. The advantage of such a system of repair consists in the increase car work reliability during the inter-repair term.

Exploring the cultural conceptualization of emotions across national language varieties

Supporting the hypothesis that emotions are culturally constructed, this article compares the cultural conceptualization of pride in European and Brazilian Portuguese (EP/BP). Individualistic/collectivistic as well as other cultural influences that determine the conceptual variation of pride in pluricentric Portuguese are examined. Adopting a sociocognitive view of language and applying a multifactorial usage-feature and profile-based methodology, this study combines a feature-based qualitative analysis of 500 occurrences of orgulho ‘pride’ and vaidade ‘vanity’ from a corpus of blogs with their subsequent multivariate statistic modeling. The multiple correspondence analysis reveals two clusters of features, namely, self-centered pride and other-directed pride. Logistic regression confirmed that EP appears to be more associated with other-directed pride, which is in line with the more collectivist and restrained Portuguese culture, whereas BP is more connected with self-centered pride. Accordingly, morally good pride is salient in EP. Brazil’s high power distance can also explain the prominence of negative and bad pride in BP.

Absenteeism metrics for risk assessment concerning illness and injury in the medical-social assistance units

Objective. This study aimed to provide the true picture of a ten-year absenteeism survey with regard to work-related illnesses and injuries in medical-social workers, and to develop an analytical model for the occupational health practitioner to facilitate record linkage between health outcomes and occupational data. Methods. Severity indicator and specific weight indicator were calculated on the basis of sick leaves evidence from seven care facilities, as well as the average lost days per year within the period 2008-2017. Four types of work-related illnesses, non-reported accidents and five occupational groups accounted for statistic modeling of data. Results. According to the specific weight indicator for occupations, nurses ranked the first place for musculoskeletal disorders, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and traumatic injuries, followed by medical-social-educational staff. Severity indicator for musculoskeletal disorders was high correlated with the number of employees (r=0.66). Conclusions: This analytical method is reliable to be applied in risk assessment procedures and occupational health expertise.