Response Efficacy and Action to Prepare for Disasters With Different Lead Time: Age Differences

This study investigated how disaster types, namely those with short and longer warning lead time, contextualized individuals’ preparatory action, especially as associated with their response efficacy and age. The working sample included 1,467 respondents from the 2017 U.S. National Household Survey. Logistic regressions showed that individuals with higher levels of response efficacy were more likely to prepare after learning information about how to prepare. Respondents in areas prone to short lead-time disasters were less likely to prepare than those in longer lead-time disasters areas. Response efficacy was more important for action taking for short lead-time disasters, which was observed only among older adults when older and younger adults were examined separately. These findings revealed the impacts of disaster types and response efficacy on disaster preparedness and older adults’ unique vulnerability and resilience, which could guide policymaking and interventions to promote national disaster preparedness tailored to regional peculiarities.

Assessment of runoff predictability for the Russian rivers depending on their catchment characteristics by the hydrograph extrapolation method

The predictability of river runoff is determined by the maximum lead time of satisfactory forecasts of water discharge obtained by the hydrograph extrapolation method. This indicator characterizes the smoothness of changes in water discharge over time and determines a possibility of using the Hydrometcentre of Russia’s automated system for preparation and daily streamflow forecasting all year long. The dependency between the predictability of river runoff and the main factors of its formation and regime is investigated. In total 18 regions within the territory of Russia are identified; for each of them a dependence between the streamflow predictability indicator and the area and average slope of the catchment is obtained. These regions cover 79% of the entire country. Calculated regional dependencies made it possible to estimate threshold values of the area and average slope of the catchment beyond which satisfactory forecasts are possible with a sufficiently long lead time (8–10 days), or only with a short lead time (1–2 days), or are impossible at all. Keywords: streamflow predictability, hydrograph extrapolation method, maximum forecast lead time, morphometric characteristics of catchment, calculated regional dependencies

Productivity Enhancement with Material Handling System Design and Human Factors Analysis – a Case Study

Global competitiveness leads industry to meet the customer needs by short lead time to market and quality products with low prices. Survival in such a market can be accomplished by either adopting latest technologies or improving the existing systems to the best possible level. Acquiring these technologies need heavy investments and consistent demands due to which small and medium industries skip this option and tend to opt for other choice that is: improve the existing system. Material handling activities contributes a significant investment in production cost. Effective handling system reduces total production cost while considering ergonomics issues improves the productivity. This paper presents a conceptual framework with material handling systems design and the effects of human factors to improve productivity by reducing cost and optimizing quality. The framework provides a general methodology for analyzing a manufacturing/production line. Procedure for its implementation is discussed in a hierarchical way and finally the framework is used to analyze the production lines of a petrochemical industry. The analysis results in successful improvement of the process with 15% increase in overall manufacturing cycle efficiency.

Dual Sourcing and Smoothing Under Nonstationary Demand Time Series: Reshoring with SpeedFactories

We investigate near-shoring a small part of the global production to local SpeedFactories that serve only the variable demand. The short lead time of the responsive SpeedFactory reduces the risk of making large volumes in advance, yet it does not involve a complete reshoring of demand. Using a break-even analysis, we investigate the lead time, demand, and cost characteristics that make dual sourcing with a SpeedFactory desirable compared with complete off-shoring. Our analysis uses a linear generalization of the celebrated order-up-to inventory policy to settings where capacity costs exist. The policy allows for order smoothing to reduce capacity costs and performs well relative to the (unknown) optimal policy. We highlight the significant impact of auto-correlated and nonstationary demand series, which are prevalent in practice yet challenging to analyze, on the economic benefit of reshoring. Methodologically, we adopt a linear policy and normally distributed demand and use Z–transforms to present exact analyses. This paper was accepted by Jayashankar Swaminathan, operations management.

Casing Exit in Expandable Liner Enables Operator to Avoid Redrilling 3,000-ft Hole Sections in Gulf

After a 13 3/8-in. expandable liner collapsed in a Gulf of Mexico ultradeepwater well, an operator considered a whipstock sidetrack, exiting as deep as possible to finish drilling and completion operations. Exiting the 16-in. casing, industry standards would have called for redrilling and casing an entire hole section. Exiting the expandable liner was an alternative option, but would require a unique solution to operate in the larger internal diameter (ID) and maintain the existing hole size. The service provider created a fit-for-purpose solution to install a casing window in the 13.77-in. ID expandable liner. The standard casing exit system accommodates 13 3/8-in. casing through 14-in. casing and requires minimal modifications to anchor the actual concave assembly to support a 12.25-in. pilot window. Additional mill runs would then open the 12.25-in. pilot window to a full bore 13 1/2-in. outside diameter (OD) window. Despite never having performed an installation in this size of expandable liner, the provider had a run history for exits with similar modifications and extra trips to enlarge and elongate windows. Job challenges included thin-wall, channeled cement; limited flow rates because of liner pressure limits; equipment availability; and a short lead time. The 11 1/2-in. OD assembly was quickly modified to enable the anchor engagement in the 13.77-in. ID liner. Within days the mills were dressed to the custom ODs required to enlarge the 12.25-in. pilot window to 13.50-in. On the first run, the whipstock was hydraulically set in the liner. Kickoff was achieved at 19,609-ft to cut a 27.5-ft window and ream a 45-ft rathole in 22 hours. The second bottom hole assembly (BHA) consisted of three mills with 12 1/2-in., 12 3/4-in., and 13-in. ODs. Milling and reaming took 6 hours. The third and final BHA to open the window to a 13 1/2-in. OD consisted of a 13 1/4-in. OD mill and two full-drift mills above. Milling and reaming with this BHA took 29 hours before coming back in with a motor assembly to drill ahead. This installation is the first sidetrack conducted with a whipstock in a 13 3/8-in. expandable. This paper will show that it is possible to safely and reliably install a casing exit system in difficult applications, such as deep expandable liners, that might previously have been considered unfeasible. This approach provides an opportunity for the industry to significantly reduce non-productive time in such scenarios.

Application of value stream mapping to enhance productivity by reducing manufacturing lead time in a manufacturing company: A case study

Lead time is a time gap between initiation and completion of the processes or product. The lead time directly affects productivity. Short lead time results in higher output thus add more value in a given period. Value stream map is an effective tool to describe the overall process from order to delivery. In this study, there is lead time reduction by generation current state and future state for a process using various techniques. Thus, the main aim of this work to enhance production by reduction of lead time. Finally, gain in production, reduction in lead time, and reduction in inventory between the stations are also reported.

Balancing Workload and Workforce Capacity in Lean Management: Application to Multi-Model Assembly Lines

While multi-model assembly lines are used by advanced lean companies because of their flexibility (different models of a product are produced in small lots and reach the customers in a short lead time), most of the extant literature on how to staff assembly lines focuses either on single-model lines or on mixed-model lines. The literature on multi-model lines is scarce and results given by current methods may be of limited applicability. In consequence, we develop a procedure to staff multi-model assembly lines while taking into account the principles of lean manufacturing. As a first approach, we replace the concepts of operation time and desired cycle time by their reciprocal magnitudes workload and capacity, and we define the dimensionless term of unit workload (load/capacity ratio) in order to avoid magnitudes related to time such as cycle time because, in practice, they might not be known. Next, we develop the necessary equations to apply this framework to a multi-model line. Finally, a piece of software in Python is developed, taking advantage of Google’s OR-Tools solver, to achieve an optimal multi-model line with a constant workforce and with each workstation performing the same tasks across all models. Several instances are tested to ensure the performance of this method.

Designing the Customer Order Decoupling Point to Facilitate Mass Customization

As globalization continues, manufacturing enterprises need to do mass customization with a short lead-time, to satisfy evolving market demands in different regions. One challenge of mass customization is to fulfill orders swiftly at an acceptable cost, meanwhile maintaining the service quality. To do this, the customer order decoupling point – CODP, where the value-adding activities take place, should be designed and adapted to the changing market demands. In this paper, we propose a Formulation-Exploration method to make decisions on CODP positioning and improve the supply chain to support mass customization. A test problem of auto parts manufacturing is used to establish the efficacy of our method. The Formulation-Exploration method can be used to design supply chains to manage mass customization of products, especially when information is incomplete and inaccurate, goals conflict and multiple types of uncertainty add complexity. In this paper, we focus on the method rather than the results per se.

Development of an Optimization Model to Manage Imbalances in Power Systems by Local Power Retail Companies

The feed-in tariff (FIT) programs resulted in rapid growth of renewable power sources in various countries. In Japan, the program particularly triggered explosive growth of solar power generations because of its short lead-time and high tariff level. Although mass introduction of renewable power sources certainly contributes to reduce CO2 emissions, it causes serious instability issues in power systems. One of the most serious issues is management of imbalances resulting from forecast errors in solar power generations. These imbalances must be compensated so as to keep stable operation in power systems. On the other hand, local power retail companies are increasing nowadays in various countries including Japan. These companies are mainly procuring renewable power sources such as solar power systems.Taking these circumstances into consideration, this article aims at exploring measures to manage the imbalances of power systems by local power retail companies. For this purpose, we developed a model in mixed integer linear programming to operate power systems dealing with the imbalances. Evaluated results using the model indicated the followings; appropriate adoption of stationary or home batteries is shown to economically compensate the imbalances by local power retail companies.