A TISM and MICMAC analysis of factors during COVID-19 pandemic in Indian Apparel Supply Chain

The objective of this study is to explore the challenges faced by the Indian apparel supply chain in the wake of COVID-19 to identify the factors that are being affected and build a multilevel hierarchy model to prioritize the factors and understand their inter-relationships. An intensive literature review was conducted and many experts from apparel supply chain were consulted. The study was conducted by the help of a survey sent to these experts from different echelons in the apparel industry. The data was then analysed using Total Interpretive Structural Modelling (TISM). The “Difficulty in export order fulfilment” factor is found to be the most sensitive factor which means that it is present in the TISM model hierarchy in a place that it is affected by most of the factors and in-turn impacts factors like operational cost, change in marketing strategy, change in consumer buying pattern, which impact Profitability and Cut-off in employment. “Cut-off in employment” is found to be most impacted by all other factors in TISM model.

The Flexible Modelling Framework for the Met Office Unified Model (Flex-UM, part of the UM 12.1 release)

The Met Office Unified Model (UM) is a world-leading atmospheric weather and climate model. In addition to comprehensive simulations of the atmosphere, the UM is capable of running idealised simulations, such as the dry physics Held–Suarez test case, radiative convective equilibrium and simulating planetary atmospheres other than Earth. However, there is a disconnect between the simplicity of the idealised UM model configurations and the full complexity of the UM. This gap inhibits the broad use of climate model hierarchy approaches within the UM. To fill this gap, we have developed the Flexible modelling framework of the UM – Flex-UM – which broadens the climate model hierarchy capabilities within the UM. Flex-UM was designed to replicate the atmospheric physics of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) idealised moist physics aquaplanet model. New parameterisations have been implemented in Flex-UM, including simplified schemes for: convection, large-scale precipitation, radiation, boundary layer and sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions. These idealised parameterisations have been implemented in a modular way, so that each scheme is available for use in any model configuration. This has the advantage that we can incrementally add or remove complexity within the model hierarchy. We compare Flex-UM to ERA5 and aquaplanet simulations using the Isca climate modelling framework (based on the GFDL moist physics aquaplanet model) and comprehensive simulations of the UM (using the GA7.0 configuration). We also use two SST boundary conditions to compare the models (fixed SST and a slab ocean). We find the Flex-UM climatologies are similar to both Isca and GA7.0 (though Flex-UM is generally a little cooler, with higher relative humidity, and a less pronounced storm track). Flex-UM has a single InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the slab ocean simulation but a double-ITCZ in the fixed SST simulation. Further work is needed to ensure that the atmospheric energy budget closes to within 1–2 W m−2 , as the current configuration of Flex-UM gains 9–11 W m−2 (the range covers the two SST boundary conditions). Flex-UM greatly extends the modelling hierarchy capabilities of the UM and offers a simplified framework for developing, testing and evaluating parameterisations within the UM.

Principles and framework model for the development of a ship hull digital twin

В статье рассматриваются вопросы и проблемы создания цифровых двойников (ЦД) корпусов судов. Целью является разработка соответствующих методик. Отмечается, что классификационные и нормативные требования к ЦД корпуса судна в отечественной практике пока отсутствуют. Определяется цель и основные задачи ЦД, их роль в управлении жизненным циклом (ЖЦ) судна. Отмечается, что применение ЦД корпуса судна позволит анализировать текущее состояние корпуса судна, а в перспективе повлиять на решение проблем проектирования и эксплуатации судов, нормирования их безопасности. Анализируются противоречия, возникающие при внедрении технологии ЦД в существующую систему нормирования и проектирования судов. Исходя из этого, сформулированы принципы разработки методик создания ЦД: структуризация и модульность; иерархия моделей и подмоделирование; управление с обратной связью; стимул к совершенствованию правил классификационных обществ. Предложена структура методик разработки ЦД корпуса судна. Определены основные этапы разработки ЦД. Рассматривается пример разработки ЦД пассажирского высокоскоростного катамарана из композиционных материалов на основе среды разработки ANSYS Workbench на этапе технического проекта судна. Предложена структура ЦД на этапе рабочего проектирования и эксплуатации корпуса судна. The article discusses the issues and problems of creating digital twins (DT) of ship hulls. The aim is to develop appropriate methodic. It is noted that there are no classification and regulatory requirements for the DT of a ship's hull in domestic practice so far. The purpose and main tasks of the DT are determined, their role in the life cycle management of the ship. It is noted that the use of the ship's hull DT will make it possible to influence the solution of modern problems of the design and operation of ships, the regulation of their safety. The contradictions arising from the introduction of the DT technology into the existing system of regulation and design of ships are analyzed. Proceeding from this, the principles for developing methods for creating a DT were formulated: structuring and modularity; model hierarchy and sub-modeling; feedback control; motivation to improve rules of classification societies. The structure of methods for the development of the ship's hull DT is proposed. The main stages of DT development are determined. An example of the development of a DT of the passenger high-speed catamaran made of composite materials based on the ANSYS Workbench development environment at the stage of a ship's technical design is considered. The structure of DT models at the stage of detailed design and operation of the ship's hull is proposed.

Efektivitas Iklan Traveloka Televisi Konvensional Pada Konsumen di Era Digital

Tujuan Traveloka beriklan adalah untuk meningkatkan kesadaran masyarakat akan hadirnya Traveloka sebagai salah satu pelopor online travel agency di Indonesia, serta untuk meningkatkan jumlah pengguna. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui efektivitas iklan. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif deskriptif dengan paradigma positivistik. Pengukuran efektivitas iklan dilakukan dengan menggunakan model Customer Response Index (CRI). Hasil pengukuran di analisis disertai dengan penjelasan faktor-faktor yang menjadi alasan responden dalam memberikan respon mengacu pada indikator dari model Hierarchy of Effect. Hasil akhir penghitungan diperoleh nilai CRI sebesar 51,4% lebih besar dari unaware 1,4%, no comprehend 5,1%, no interest 12,9%, no intention 9,6% dan no action 19,6%. Hal tersebut menunjukkan bahwa iklan televisi Traveloka “Edisi Ramadhan–Trip Mudik” tahun 2017 efektif. Kesimpulan diperoleh melalui pengujian model CRI diketahui bahwa nilai CRI (tahap action) lebih besar dari unaware, no comprehend, no interest, no intention dan no action iklan televisi Traveloka “Edisi Ramadhan–Trip Mudik” tahun 2017 efektif.

Quantifying the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone rainfall using a model hierarchy

<p>Changes in extreme events, such as the recent devastating tropical cyclones (TC), are a visible way in which climate change can directly impact society and coastal communities. This work presents the results of a model hierarchy within the Community Earth System Model (CESM), that spans idealized radiative convective equilibrium to realistic decadal projections of future climate change configurations, to explore how TC rainfall characteristics change with surface warming. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) component of CESM is forced with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gas concentrations for idealized and realistic representations of past, present, and future climates using global and variable-resolution setups with high-resolution horizontal grid spacing equal to 28 km. An analysis framework that allows for the extraction of TC-related rainfall throughout the full storm lifecycle is utilized. This analysis includes the evaluation of conventional (AMIP-style) decadal simulations typical of climate models, short 7-day ensemble hindcasts of recent devastating events, and reduced complexity simulations of idealized states of the climate system. Through this hierarchical modeling approach the impact of climate change on the characteristics (rainfall, structure, intensity, etc.) of TCs can be quantified This work is part of a growing effort in the scientific community to quantify the impact of climate change on recent and future extreme weather events.</p>

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP)

<p>Reduced-complexity climate models form part of the climate model hierarchy and are increasingly relied upon at the science-policy interface. Historically, evaluation of reduced-complexity climate models has been limited to a number of independent studies. Here we present the reduced-complexity model intercomparison project (RCMIP), the first systematic, community-organised evaluation of reduced-complexity climate models. We introduce the motivation behind RCMIP, where to find information about it and key insights arising from its first two scientific outputs. Future phases of RCMIP will examine specific behaviour of reduced-complexity climate models in more detail, for example their carbon cycle response. We are particulalry keen to hear from users of reduced-complexity models to discuss their use cases, how we can evaluate our models in the way most relevant to them and where key model improvements can be made.</p>

Can one use Earth’s magnetic axial dipole field intensity to predict reversals?

Summary We study predictions of reversals of Earth’s axial magnetic dipole field that are based solely on the dipole’s intensity. The prediction strategy is, roughly, that once the dipole intensity drops below a threshold, then the field will continue to decrease and a reversal (or a major excursion) will occur. We first present a rigorous definition of an intensity threshold-based prediction strategy and then describe a mathematical and numerical framework to investigate its validity and robustness in view of the data being limited. We apply threshold-based predictions to a hierarchy of numerical models, ranging from simple scalar models to 3D geodynamos. We find that the skill of threshold-based predictions varies across the model hierarchy. The differences in skill can be explained by differences in how reversals occur: if the field decreases towards a reversal slowly (in a sense made precise in this paper), the skill is high, and if the field decreases quickly, the skill is low. Such a property could be used as an additional criterion to identify which models qualify as Earth-like. Applying threshold-based predictions to Virtual Axial Dipole Moment (VADM) paleomagnetic reconstructions (PADM2M and Sint-2000) covering the last two million years, reveals a moderate skill of threshold-based predictions for Earth’s dynamo. Besides all of their limitations, threshold-based predictions suggests that no reversal is to be expected within the next 10 kyr. Most importantly, however, we show that considering an intensity threshold for identifying upcoming reversals is intrinsically limited by the dynamic behavior of Earth’s magnetic field.