Nomogram to predict risk of incident chronic kidney disease in high-risk population of cardiovascular disease in China: community-based cohort study

AimsTo develop a nomogram for incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk evaluation among community residents with high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, 5730 non-CKD residents with high CVD risk participating the National Basic Public Health Service between January 2015 and December 2020 in Guangzhou were included. Endpoint was incident CKD defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 during the follow-up period. The entire cohorts were randomly (2:1) assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort. Predictors of incident CKD were selected by multivariable Cox regression and stepwise approach. A nomogram based on these predictors was developed and evaluated with concordance index (C-index) and area under curve (AUC).ResultsDuring the median follow-up period of 4.22 years, the incidence of CKD was 19.09% (n=1094) in the entire cohort, 19.03% (727 patients) in the development cohort and 19.21% (367 patients) in the validation cohort. Age, body mass index, eGFR 60–89 mL/min/1.73 m2, diabetes and hypertension were selected as predictors. The nomogram demonstrated a good discriminative power with C-index of 0.778 and 0.785 in the development and validation cohort. The 3-year, 4-year and 5-year AUCs were 0.817, 0.814 and 0.834 in the development cohort, and 0.830, 0.847 and 0.839 in the validation cohort.ConclusionOur nomogram based on five readily available predictors is a reliable tool to identify high-CVD risk patients at risk of incident CKD. This prediction model may help improving the healthcare strategies in primary care.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and the Kidney: A Review

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with several extrahepatic manifestations such as cardiovascular disease and sleep apnea. Furthermore, NAFLD is reported to be associated with an increased risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). Inflammation and oxidative stress are suggested to be the key factors involved in the inflammatory mechanisms and pathways linking NAFLD to CKD and are responsible for both the pathogenesis and the progression of CKD in NAFLD patients. This review aims to provide a more comprehensive overview of the association between CKD and NAFLD, also considering the effect of increasing severity of NAFLD. A PubMed search was conducted using the terms “non-alcoholic fatty liver disease AND kidney”. In total, 537 articles were retrieved in the last five years and 12 articles were included in the qualitative analysis. Our results showed that CKD developed more frequently in NAFLD patients compared to those without NAFLD. This association persisted after adjustment for traditional risk factors and according to the severity of NAFLD. Therefore, patients with NAFLD should be considered at high risk of CKD. Intensive multidisciplinary surveillance over time is needed, where hepatologists and nephrologists must act together for better and earlier treatment of NAFLD patients.

Association of Kidney-Related Safety Events with Incident Chronic Kidney Disease in Veterans

Objective: The impact of Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAID) and iodine-based contrast exposures on developing Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is controversial. We examined the association of these exposures with the development of CKD in a Veteran population. Methods: A retrospective case-control study of 154,448 veterans from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database between 2005 and 2014 was conducted to assess the association between incident stage 3 CKD with Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), NSAID use, iodine-based contrast exposures, and comorbid conditions. Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine multivariable adjusted Odds Ratios (OR). Results: The mean age was 59 (SD±13), and the median eGFR was 84 (IQR: 73, 96). AKI was associated with increased odds of CKD (inpatient: OR=3.76, 95% CI: 3.44, 4.11; outpatient: OR=4.73, 95% CI: 4.09, 5.46) and demonstrated escalated odds with >1 episode (inpatient: OR=5.72, 95% CI: 4.71, 6.95; outpatient: OR=8.36, 95% CI: 6.32, 11.06). Months of NSAID prescriptions was associated with CKD, with ORs at >0-6 months, >6-12 months, and >12 months of 1.27 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.32), 1.54 (95% CI: 1.46, 1.63), and 1.69 (95% CI: 1.62, 1.77) respectively. Iodine-based contrast exposure was associated with increased odds of CKD, with ORs for 1-2 Computed Tomography (CT) scans, ≥3CT scans, and left heart catheterization of 1.29 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.35), 1.29 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.28), and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.63) respectively. Conclusion: AKI events, NSAID use, and iodine-based contrast exposures are associated with increased odds for developing stage 3 CKD in veterans.

New Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Fibrosis Progression Associate With the Risk of Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

Context Little is known about the link between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) evolution and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). Objective We aim to assess the associations of NALFD status changes and NAFLD fibrosis progression with the risk of incident CKD. Methods We conducted a community-based prospective study including participants aged 40 years or older and free of CKD at baseline in 2010, and followed up after a mean of 4.4 years. NAFLD was diagnosed by ultrasonography. NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) was used to evaluate fibrosis stage and progression. CKD was defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). All the measurements were performed at baseline and follow-up examination. Results Among 4,042 participants with four NAFLD status change groups, incident NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of incident CKD (Odds Ratio, OR = 1.44, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.003 - 2.06; P = 0.048) compared to non-NAFLD after adjustments for the confounders including evolution of diabetes, hypertension and obesity in addition to the baseline levels. However, the risk of incident CKD was not significantly different between NAFLD resolution and persistent NAFLD. Among 534 participants in persistent NAFLD group, those with fibrosis progression from low NFS to intermediate or high NFS was associated with a significantly increased risk of incident CKD compared to those with fibrosis stable in low NFS (OR = 2.82, 95% CI 1.22 - 6.56; P = 0.016). Conclusions NAFLD development and fibrosis progression are associated with increased risk of incident CKD.